Arsenal lose Saka and three days of rest, Everton bring a defence that rarely breaks
Arsenal flew back from Munich after a 2-2 draw with Bayern on Wednesday night, and they did so without Bukayo Saka, who went off with a thigh problem in the opening ten minutes. Arteta said on Friday that Saka was going for an MRI because there was too much fluid in the area to judge the severity, and that a player struggling to walk off the pitch is „not a good sign“. He now faces a spell on the sidelines and is set to miss Saturday’s game. Everton, meanwhile, have had a full week to prepare after their first league defeat of the season, a 2-0 at home to Chelsea in which they managed only six attempts. David Moyes’s side have conceded seven league goals in seven games, and Arsenal’s tired legs face a team that is very comfortable defending deep.
Predicted lineups: Arsenal vs Everton
Without Saka, Eberechi Eze is expected to start, with Noni Madueke on the right after his winner at Nottingham Forest. William Saliba is still out with the back problem that has kept him sidelined all season, Christos Tzolis has a hamstring injury, while Arteta confirmed that Piero Hincapié is available again after his ankle problem, which gives him an alternative to Riccardo Calafiori, who would otherwise be starting a third game in a row. Everton have no new injury concerns. Ainsley Maitland-Niles struggled at right-back against Chelsea and was replaced after 55 minutes, so Jake O’Brien could come in. These are predicted line-ups.
Arsenal Team News & Preview
Arsenal’s league form is better than their football. They are second with 18 points, but the 1-0 win at Forest last Sunday was a laboured one: no shot on target until Madueke’s deflected strike ten minutes from time. In Munich they were caught on the break in the first half before Declan Rice’s equaliser gave them control, and Saturday’s game will be their third in seven days.
The defence is still the foundation. Arsenal have conceded five league goals: three in the defeat at Brighton and one each in the 2-1 home wins over Chelsea and Leeds. Their other four league games all ended in clean sheets. At home, though, they have won all three matches by scores of 3-0, 2-1 and 2-1, so the Emirates has not been a place for tight, low-scoring games so far.
What works for or against Arsenal
- Only five goals conceded in seven league games.
- Four clean sheets in seven league games.
- Saka is out and the squad has had less than three days to recover from Munich.
- Conceded in two of their three home league games.
Everton Team News & Preview
The Chelsea game was Everton’s worst attacking display of the season. They were level at half-time, but Pedro Neto scored right after the break, Chelsea took control and Everton never really threatened. Moyes insisted afterwards that Everton had not played badly overall, but the numbers were thin: six attempts, and very little in the way of clear chances.
That game fits a broader pattern. Everton have scored eight goals in seven league games and have failed to score in two of them, the 0-0 at Tottenham and the Chelsea defeat. Thierno Barry has three goals, and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has two. Away from home, they drew at Bournemouth, Tottenham and Hull. They are solid, but they rarely open teams up.
What works for or against Everton
- Only seven goals conceded in seven league games.
- Unbeaten away from home in the league: three draws.
- Failed to score in two of their seven league games.
- Only six attempts against Chelsea last weekend.
Arsenal vs Everton Odds
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Arsenal Form, Stats & Data
Arsenal allow just 0.8 expected goals per game, the clearest sign of how hard they are to play through. In attack, though, 4.4 shots on target per game is modest for a side with 61% possession, and Saka’s absence removes their top league scorer.
Everton Form, Stats & Data
Everton’s best-rated player is a centre-back, which says a lot about how they earn their points. Their games tend to be tight: only seven goals against, and five of their seven league matches have had fewer than three goals.
Arsenal vs Everton: Prediction & Betting Tip
I think Everton will find it very hard to score. Arsenal have kept four clean sheets in seven league games and give up so little in open play, while Everton have scored eight goals in seven league games, failed to score in two of them and could only muster six attempts last weekend. The recent head-to-heads point the same way: 2-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 0-0, five goals in four league meetings.
The case against is Arsenal’s schedule. They played in Munich on Wednesday night, they are without Saka, and tired teams make mistakes. At home they have also conceded in two of their three league games, against Chelsea and Leeds. If Everton score from a set piece, this bet is gone. Even so, I would rather back Everton to draw a blank than ask an exhausted Arsenal side to win by a big margin.
My bet is Both Teams to Score – No at 1.75 with Winz. I expect a 1-0 home win.