Džeko’s farewell in a sold-out Zenica against a Sweden side hit by injury and illness
Bosnia and Herzegovina host Sweden at Bilino Polje in Zenica on Friday, 2 October 2026, on matchday three of UEFA Nations League B, Group 4, with kick-off at 20:45 CEST. Sweden lead the group with six points after beating Romania and Poland in Solna; Bosnia have four from a goalless draw in Warsaw and a 4-2 win behind closed doors in Bucharest. The football is only half the story: this is Edin Džeko’s last game for his country, with a ceremony and a drone show planned afterwards, a stadium that sold out in a quarter of an hour, and a visiting squad that trained with eleven outfield players on Wednesday because three of them were kept in the hotel with cold symptoms. Ukrainian referee Oleksii Derevinskyi takes charge.
„Sada možemo s Edinom i radi njega igrati. Bit će euforija u državi“ – Barbarez: now we can play with Edin and for him, there will be euphoria in the country.
Predicted lineups: Bosnia vs Sweden
Barbarez held his press conference in Sarajevo on Thursday morning; what is known from the week before is that the full squad trained on Tuesday, that Džeko did not play in Warsaw or Bucharest and that the manager’s stated plan is for him to play the whole match on Friday. The eleven below is therefore the Bucharest side with Džeko in for Tabaković, who scored in Romania but is the obvious player to make way. No Bosnian player is suspended: only Mahmić and Muharemović were booked in Bucharest, and neither was on a prior yellow. Sweden’s picture is unusual. Isak and Ekdal left the camp injured on Sunday and were not replaced; Holm went off on a stretcher against Romania; on Wednesday Ayari, Nygren and Lagerbielke did not train because of cold symptoms and the press officer said it was „för tidigt att säga“ whether they would be fit; Eric Smith was called in. The projection keeps the Solna side where possible, with Nanasi and Swedberg as the likely replacements if Ayari and Nygren miss out.
Bosnia and Herzegovina Team News & Preview
Barbarez said the plan was to reach the Sweden game with four points from six, and his side did exactly that. In Warsaw, Bosnia defended compactly, Zlomislić saved from Szymański and Zieliński, and a Bosnian goal was ruled out for a foul on Bułka; Smajlović made his debut and six players were booked. In Bucharest the approach was the opposite: Gigović on 12 minutes from a Bajraktarević cross, Muharemović from a Bašić corner, Tabaković after Radu’s spill, Mahmić from another Bajraktarević delivery, a 4-2 that the manager called a sign that „we finally have the courage to play with the ball“. N1’s analysis describes a 4-2-3-1 with Gigović and Bašić as the pivot, Memić used as a right-back, high-tempo vertical football and crosses from Bajraktarević, who has now been involved in five goals in his last five caps.
Then there is Džeko. He has 151 caps and 73 goals, has not featured in either September game, and Barbarez’s wish is for him to play ninety minutes, score and win on his farewell. The emotional charge of a sold-out Bilino Polje is obvious, and Safet Sušić’s warning in the Swedish press – that the players „will be extremely motivated“ – is the sort of thing visiting teams hear before every big night in Zenica. What matters for betting is less the ceremony than the record: one defeat in the last eight home games, and a Sweden side that is missing its best striker and may be without three more starters through illness. Bosnia’s own recent defeats – 1-4 to Switzerland, 0-2 to the United States – show the limits, but at home against a weakened visitor, avoiding defeat is the bar I am setting.
What works for or against Bosnia
- Four points from two games, a 4-2 in Bucharest built on Bajraktarević's crosses, and one defeat in the last eight home matches.
- Džeko's farewell in a stadium that sold out in 14 minutes, with the manager promising ninety minutes for the record scorer.
- Džeko has not played in either September game and his profile changes the attack from Tabaković's running to a target man.
- Conceded twice to Romania and lost 1-4 to Switzerland and 0-2 to the United States earlier in the year – this defence can be opened up by quality.
Sweden Team News & Preview
Graham Potter’s Sweden have won both games and are unbeaten in nine Nations League matches, but the camp has shrunk by the day. Isak scored the opener against Romania and left with a thigh problem Potter called „small“ but „frustrating“; Ekdal went with him; Holm was stretchered off and has seen a specialist about possible surgery. The win over Poland was a good one – Nygren early, Ayari and Gyökeres after the break, 3-1 in front of 24,637, with Potter „very satisfied“ and the second half described as exceptional – but on Wednesday the squad trained with three goalkeepers and eleven outfield players after Ayari, Nygren and Lagerbielke were isolated with cold symptoms. The press officer’s line was that they are being kept apart „to keep this to as few as possible“, and whether they travel and play was still open on Thursday morning. Eric Smith of St. Pauli was called in as cover.
The core that remains is strong. Gyökeres has scored in both games and Potter said before the window that he and Isak could not play ninety minutes in every match of a four-game stretch; without Isak the burden on Gyökeres grows. Lindelöf and Starfelt have anchored the defence, Johansson produced a one-handed save from Cash in the Poland game, and the 4-4-2 has been direct and effective. Sweden have conceded in both games, though, and the only previous meeting with Bosnia was a 4-2 friendly in 2010 that tells nobody anything. A team that may lose two starters to a cold the day before a hostile away game is not one I want to back at 2.20, however good the September results.
What works for or against Sweden
- Two wins from two, unbeaten in nine Nations League games, Gyökeres scoring in both September matches.
- Isak, Ekdal and Holm all out injured, and Ayari, Nygren and Lagerbielke isolated with cold symptoms two days before the game.
- Conceded in both games and face a sold-out Zenica on the most emotional night Bosnian football has had in years.
- Potter planned to rotate across four games in eleven days anyway – the illnesses may simply decide the rotation for him.
Bosnia vs Sweden Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
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Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Sweden Stats Comparison
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Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Sweden Form Guide
Bosnia-Herzegovina Form, Stats & Data
Four goals from four different scorers in Bucharest and a clean sheet in Warsaw is a strong two-game profile, and the two performances show a team that can defend compactly away and attack with width when allowed. Bajraktarević is the key figure – five goal involvements in five caps – and Gigović and Bašić give the midfield energy that was missing a year ago. The defensive numbers are the caveat: two conceded to Romania, four to Switzerland in March, and a Sweden attack with Gyökeres will test Katić and Muharemović more than Romania did. With Džeko as a target for Bajraktarević’s crosses and a crowd that will not let the team sit back, I see Bosnia scoring and, more importantly for the bet, not losing.
Sweden Form, Stats & Data
Five goals in two games, Gyökeres with two of them, and a nine-game unbeaten run in this competition make Sweden the better team on paper by a distance. The problem is the paper is changing: Isak’s goal threat is gone, Holm’s running on the right is gone, and three of Wednesday’s absentees – Ayari and Nygren scored against Poland, Lagerbielke is a defensive option – may not be available. Two goals conceded in two games against Romania and Poland suggest a defence that can be reached, and Zenica is a different proposition from Solna. I expect Sweden to score, which is why both teams scoring is my alternative; I do not expect a side in this state to win there.
Bosnia vs Sweden: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, the decisive factors are depth and occasion. Sweden have lost three players to injury without replacing two of them, and could lose three more to illness between Wednesday and Friday; Bosnia have their full squad, four points from two games, a record scorer returning for one last night and a stadium that sold out in minutes. Bosnia’s recent home record – one defeat in eight – and the way they opened up Romania make a home point the minimum I expect, and a home win entirely possible.
The strongest argument against is Sweden’s quality when fit. Gyökeres has scored in both games, Lindelöf and Starfelt have been solid, and if Ayari and Nygren recover in time the side that beat Poland 3-1 is good enough to win anywhere in League B. The emotion around Džeko could also work against Bosnia if the team plays the occasion rather than the match. That is why I take the double chance rather than the home win.
My main bet is **Bosnia and Herzegovina Double Chance (1X) at 1.63 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 1-1.