Zidane’s first night at the Stade de France, without Mbappé, against a rebuilding Italy
France host Italy at the Stade de France on Friday, 2 October 2026, on matchday three of UEFA Nations League A, Group 1, kick-off 20:45 CEST, with the ground sold out. Zidane’s first two games as national manager were both 1-0 away wins, in Kocaeli and in Brussels, which leaves France top on six points; Roberto Mancini, back for a second spell, has three after a 0-2 home defeat to Belgium and a 4-1 in Bursa, and fourth place in this group means relegation from League A. The home debut comes without the player who scored the first goal of the Zidane era: Mbappé’s knee injury rules him out of the window. Spanish referee Jesús Gil Manzano is in charge.
„Non si rifà l’Italia in due allenamenti“ – Mancini: you cannot rebuild Italy in two training sessions.
Predicted lineups: France vs Italy
Zidane rotated heavily between Türkiye and Belgium and said before the second game that „des changements, il va y en avoir, ça c’est sûr“, so the French side is a projection drawn from Eurosport and Fanpage: a 4-3-3 with Maignan behind Koundé, Upamecano, Jacquet and Truffert, Koné, Da Cunha and Rabiot in midfield, and Olise and Doué either side of Dembélé, who captained the side as a central striker in Brussels. Cherki, Barcola and Lacroix are the live alternatives. Mbappé, Konaté, Saliba, Zaïre-Emery and Risser are all out of the squad. Italy’s eleven follows Eurosport Italia: Donnarumma; Kayode, Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Frattesi, Tonali, Barella; Kean, Pio Esposito, Sebastiano Esposito. Barella was rested for Bursa and is expected to start; Frattesi is described by Sky as untouchable; Tonali is a doubt after three games in seven days; Raspadori and Zaniolo have left the camp.
France Team News & Preview
Two games, two 1-0 wins, two clean sheets and a lot of the ball: France had 64 per cent possession in Kocaeli and 65 in Brussels, took 18 shots to Belgium’s 12 with seven on target to two, hit the post twice and did not allow a single big chance, according to Sofascore. The goals, though, have been thin – Mbappé’s low finish on 54 minutes against Türkiye, Olise’s late strike from a Cherki pass against Belgium – and the expected-goals figures were modest, 1.21 and 1.15. Zidane’s structure has held while the names change: Dembélé has played as the central striker, Doué was the best player in Brussels with five shots and four chances created, and Maignan and Upamecano have carried the defence.
The absences are heavy. Mbappé hurt his left knee scoring in Türkiye, tests came back badly and he is out of the remaining Nations League games; Konaté went home with a knee sprain, Saliba has been out since the World Cup, Zaïre-Emery and Risser withdrew. Yoro, 20, came up from the under-21s. Manu Koné set the tone this week – „pour le premier match du coach au Stade de France, on a à cœur de gagner“ – and described Italy as a side „in a rebuilding phase and going through a complicated spell“. The French press has been euphoric about Zidane since July; the football has been controlled rather than spectacular, and my expectation for Friday is more of the same: France to dominate possession, create the better chances and win without a flood of goals.
What works for or against France
- Two wins, two clean sheets, 64-65 per cent possession in both games and no big chance conceded in Brussels – the structure is working.
- Olise scored and Cherki set up the winner in Belgium, Doué was the best player on the pitch there, and Zidane's home debut comes in front of 80,000.
- Mbappé, Konaté and Saliba are all out – the two 1-0 wins came with narrow margins and expected goals around 1.2.
- Italy won 3-1 at this ground in September 2024, and both recent meetings between the sides produced four goals.
Italy Team News & Preview
Mancini’s return began with a whistle. Italy lost 0-2 to Belgium in Rome, Godts and Lukebakio scoring, with Bastoni suspended, a Romano error leading to the opener and Donnarumma keeping the score down; the Olimpico jeered the team off and the 4-3-3, Barella and Pio Esposito were all picked apart on social media. Mancini split the squad – ten players, Barella among them, stayed at Coverciano – and the group that flew to Bursa with eight changes won 4-1: Bastoni on nine minutes, Frattesi from a Bayındır spill, Kayode with a debut goal, Pio Esposito with a header early in the second half. It eased the pressure without settling the argument. „Vedo in giro tanta agitazione, noi dobbiamo restare tranquilli“, Mancini said: he sees a lot of agitation and wants calm.
The side for Paris mixes the two. Barella returns, Frattesi keeps his place, Kean is confirmed as a starter, Pio Esposito leads the line and Scalvini said this week that Mancini wants „una squadra che cerchi di dominare la partita“ and that Italy will play „a viso aperto“ – open football – against „one of the best teams in the world“. Raspadori’s injury and Zaniolo’s departure thin the forward options. Gazzetta describes the shape as a 4-3-3 that becomes 3-2-5 in possession with Kayode pushed high on the right and Frattesi crashing the box, more power and verticality than finesse. Italy’s record here matters – the 3-1 in September 2024 was the last time these teams met in Paris – but that was a different team under a different manager, and the version that lost to Belgium was isolated up front and loose in defence. I expect Italy to have moments, and I do not expect them to have enough of them.
What works for or against Italy
- Four goals in Bursa from four different scorers, Frattesi in form, Barella back and a clear tactical idea with Kayode high on the right.
- Lost 0-2 at home to Belgium and were whistled off; Raspadori and Zaniolo have left the camp and Tonali is a doubt.
- Mancini is openly 'viewed with suspicion' in the Italian press and admits the side cannot be rebuilt in two sessions.
- Won 3-1 at the Stade de France in September 2024 and have scored in the last two meetings with France.
France vs Italy Odds
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France Form, Stats & Data
France’s numbers under Zidane are those of a team in control without being clinical: 64-65 per cent possession, 18 shots and seven on target in Brussels, two posts hit, expected goals around 1.2 per game and exactly one goal each time. The defensive side is the stronger half – no big chance conceded against Belgium, Maignan and Upamecano consistently rated the best performers – and it survives the absences better than the attack does, because Jacquet or Lacroix stepping in for Konaté is a smaller downgrade than losing Mbappé. Dembélé, Doué, Olise and Cherki are still enough to beat an Italy side that was isolated up front in Rome; the pattern of narrow wins is why I stop at the straight win and would not touch a handicap.
Italy Form, Stats & Data
Four goals and three points from the Türkiye game flatter a side that produced nothing in Rome, and the honest reading is that Italy’s attack has been fed by Turkish errors – a spilled shot for Frattesi, a loose defence for Kayode – rather than by its own patterns. Pio Esposito’s goal and Frattesi’s running are real assets, and Barella’s return adds control, but Mancini’s own line about needing more than two training sessions is the one I believe. Against a French side that has not allowed a big chance in 90 minutes against Belgium, I see Italy getting a few half-chances and struggling to turn them into more than one goal.
France vs Italy: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, this is about control versus turmoil. France have had the ball, the chances and the clean sheets in both games, and Zidane’s structure has survived heavy rotation; Italy have had one bad night, one good night against a weak opponent, a manager under suspicion and a squad that has lost two forwards this week. The absence of Mbappé lowers France’s ceiling, not their floor – the defence that has not conceded under Zidane is intact apart from Konaté, and Doué, Olise and Dembélé have been the creators anyway.
The strongest argument against is history and margins. Italy won 3-1 on this ground two years ago, both recent meetings produced four goals, and France’s two 1-0s leave very little room: one Frattesi run or one Kayode overlap turns a controlled evening into a nervous one. That is why the stake is moderate and why I prefer the straight win to any handicap.
My main bet is **France to win at 1.44 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 2-0.