Mbappé starts as patched-up Madrid return to the Bernabéu
Real Madrid welcome Villarreal to the Santiago Bernabéu on Saturday, 10 October 2026, in the late kick-off on La Liga matchday eight. José Mourinho’s side lost the derby 2-1 at Atlético before the international break, and they return with a reshaped defence: Dean Huijsen is suspended after his red card in that game and Raúl Asencio is out until December. The build-up has been dominated by Kylian Mbappé, and Mourinho used his press conference to dismiss the controversy around the striker and confirm he will play. Villarreal arrive on the back of two straight 3-1 wins. Kick-off is at 21:00 local time, with both clubs in Champions League action next week.
„Mbappé is going to play.“ – José Mourinho at his pre-match press conference
Predicted lineups: Real Madrid vs Villarreal
With Huijsen banned, Asencio injured and Militão needing another couple of weeks, Antonio Rüdiger and Ibrahima Konaté are set to form the centre-back pairing. Konaté picked up a ligament problem with France but has been training fully. Federico Valverde is the big doubt after a severe ankle sprain in the derby, and Bellingham, Güler, Dumfries and Cucurella all played heavy minutes in the international window. Villarreal are without Tajon Buchanan, who suffered a hamstring injury on Canada duty, while Comesaña and Foyth are fit again but may not start. Íñigo Pérez has also had little time with Freeman, Saliba and Oluwaseyi, who returned late from international duty.
Real Madrid Team News & Preview
The Bernabéu has been Madrid’s fortress so far. They have played three home league games and scored four goals in each of them, beating Real Sociedad 4-1, Málaga 4-0 and Rayo 4-1, conceding only twice in the process. Their two league defeats have both come away from home, 1-0 at Betis and 2-1 at Atlético, where they played most of the second half with ten men after Huijsen’s red card and managed only six shots.
Mbappé is the key figure. He has seven league goals and a FotMob rating of 8.18, with Bellingham and Güler also among the highest-rated players in the division. The worries are at the back and in fitness. Losing Huijsen and Asencio means Konaté goes straight back in after a ligament problem, and Mourinho has a Champions League trip to Roma on Wednesday to manage.
What works for or against Real Madrid
- Madrid have scored four goals in each of their three home league games.
- Mbappé has seven league goals and is confirmed to play.
- Huijsen is suspended and Asencio injured, so the defence is rebuilt around a recently injured Konaté.
- A Champions League trip to Roma follows on Wednesday.
Villarreal Team News & Preview
Villarreal’s season so far is a story of good chances at both ends. Their 2.37 xG per game is among the highest in the league, and they have scored in six of seven league games, including back-to-back 3-1 wins over Málaga and Levante. The Levante win was one-sided, with 21 shots to six and seven on target to one. The problem is defensive: they have conceded 12 goals and have not kept a clean sheet in any league game, including home defeats to Deportivo and Betis.
Íñigo Pérez has already shown his hand. He expects to press high at the Bernabéu, knowing Madrid will look to run in behind, and he stressed that his side always defend with two centre-backs against the striker rather than going man-for-man. That approach suits Villarreal’s possession game, but against Mbappé and Vinícius it leaves space behind a defence that has already been breached in every league match. They also host Napoli in the Champions League on Tuesday.
What works for or against Villarreal
- Villarreal have scored in six of their seven league games and won their last two 3-1.
- They have conceded 12 league goals and have not kept a clean sheet this season.
- Buchanan is out, and Freeman, Saliba and Oluwaseyi had only one session after international duty.
- Pérez plans to press high, which can leave space in behind.
Real Madrid vs Villarreal Odds
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Real Madrid vs. Villarreal Form Guide
Real Madrid Form, Stats & Data
Madrid average 2.64 xG and a league-high 9.2 shots on target per game, and the actual return of 2.57 goals per game matches the chances rather than flattering them. That matters for a handicap bet: Madrid are not relying on freak finishing. Defensively, 1.10 xGA is solid, but that was built with Huijsen and a settled back line, so I treat it with some caution here.
Villarreal Form, Stats & Data
Villarreal are underperforming at both ends. They have scored 3.6 goals fewer than their xG and conceded three more than their xGA, which helps explain why a side with 61.7 per cent possession sits ninth. The chance creation is real, so I expect them to threaten Madrid’s rebuilt defence. The concern for them is that they keep conceding, and the Bernabéu against Mbappé is the worst place to try to put that right.
Head-to-Head
Madrid have won the last three meetings, 2-1 and 2-0 at Villarreal and 3-1 at the Bernabéu in October 2025, with Mbappé scoring in all three.
Home Team vs Away Team H2H Check
Real Madrid vs Villarreal: Prediction & Betting Tip
Madrid at home have looked like a different team from the one that lost at Atlético. Four goals in every home game, the best shots-on-target figure in the league and Mbappé confirmed to start point towards another comfortable night, especially against a Villarreal side that has conceded in every league game and plans to press high. That combination is why I prefer the handicap to the straight home win.
The one thing that gives me pause is Madrid’s own situation. The centre-back pairing is improvised, Valverde is a doubt, several players are tired after international duty and Roma come next. If Mourinho manages the game once Madrid are in front, a 2-1 or 1-0 is a real possibility, and Villarreal’s chance creation means they are likely to score at some stage. I still think Madrid’s home attacking numbers justify asking them to win by two.
I will be backing Real Madrid -1.5 at 1.94 with Winz. If I had to name a score, it would be 3-1.