Two goal-shy sides meet in Ljubljana with a first Nations League win at stake
Slovenia host North Macedonia at Stožice on Tuesday, 29 September 2026, with kick-off at 20:45 CEST, on matchday two of UEFA Nations League B. Both sides are still looking for their first points of the group after Slovenia ground out a 0-0 draw with Scotland on Saturday and North Macedonia were beaten 0-3 at home by Switzerland. The Slovenian press has framed this as the game that has to be won, and Boštjan Cesar has admitted as much, while Goce Sedloski has promised changes across several lines of his team. Italian referee Andrea Colombo takes charge.
„Ne vem, ali je Slovenija v zadnjih dveh letih dvakrat zmagala“ – Boštjan Cesar is not sure Slovenia have won twice in the last two years, and he wants that run ended tonight.
Predicted lineups: Slovenia vs North Macedonia
Cesar used a back three against Scotland and has hinted at freshening the side without changing its principles, so the shape below is a projection rather than a confirmed team. The big question is Vanja Drkušić, who was taken off on the hour with heavy cramp in his calves and hamstrings; Cesar says he is better, but David Zec is the ready-made replacement if he is not risked. Žan Vipotnik is an option to partner or replace Andraž Šporar up front. North Macedonia’s line-up is even less certain, because Sedloski has announced refreshment in several lines, particularly in attack, with a possible debutant, and the changes were only to be finalised after Monday evening’s training session. Alioski’s absence at left-back is the one confirmed change.
Slovenia Team News & Preview
The absence that shapes everything is Benjamin Šeško. The Manchester United striker has a calf injury, misses the entire September and October window and has still not played a single game for Slovenia since Cesar took over. Nik Prelec and Žan Zaletel withdrew injured before the Scotland game and were replaced by Jure Balkovec and Žan Celar, which leaves Šporar and Vipotnik as the recognised centre-forwards. That matters because Cesar’s own criticism after Saturday was that his midfielders did not push the ball into space for the forwards often enough, and against a low, compact opponent that lack of a reference point up front becomes even more visible. Jaka Bijol was unusually blunt on Monday: „Fizična pripravljenost nam trenutno enostavno ne štima“ – the physical condition simply is not right at the moment – and Cesar conceded that fitness cannot be fixed in a few days, only the mental side.
The 0-0 with Scotland showed both faces of this team. Šporar had a goal disallowed after eight minutes for a Šturm offside and Drkušić hit the bar with a header, but from around the 50th minute Slovenia were overrun: Scotland had 14 second-half shots to Slovenia’s one, and Jan Oblak’s one-on-one save from McBurnie, a stop from Gilmour and a double save on 73 minutes were the difference. It was Slovenia’s first clean sheet since October 2025, which says as much about the previous eleven months as it does about Saturday. Cesar’s record is one win in eleven, six of them draws, and the only victory was a March friendly against Montenegro; the last competitive win inside 90 minutes came in Kazakhstan in October 2024. He expects North Macedonia to stay high, avoid tracking back and break quickly, and has asked his side to be „killers“ in attack – a fair summary of what has been missing.
What works for or against Slovenia
- Šeško, Prelec and Zaletel are all out, leaving Šporar and Vipotnik as the only recognised strikers for a side whose manager has spent the week asking for more 'killers' in attack.
- Cesar has one win in eleven matches, and Bijol admitted on Monday that the team's physical condition is not right after being outshot 17-3 by Scotland.
- Oblak was outstanding on Saturday and Slovenia kept their first clean sheet since October 2025 – against a far more dangerous attack than tonight's.
- Drkušić is a doubt after severe cramp; Zec replaced him against Scotland and would step in again.
North Macedonia Team News & Preview
Goce Sedloski described the meeting with Switzerland as one his players „analysed well“, but the numbers were brutal: two shots on target against 23, Freuler and a double from Amdouni for a 0-3 defeat in Skopje, and Stole Dimitrievski once again the only reason it was not worse. North Macedonia have now gone five games without a goal and nine without a win – the last victory was a 5-0 over Liechtenstein in September 2025 – and the players held a closed-door meeting after the game. Sedloski’s response was public and pointed: „Јас сум одговорен за изборот на играчите, но од нив очекувам да покажат поголем квалитет и карактер“ – he is responsible for selection, but he expects more quality and character from them. Changes across several lines are coming, above all in attack, and a debutant is possible.
The one confirmed loss is Ezgjan Alioski, who stayed in Skopje with an injury and is only expected back for the Scotland game on 3 October. That removes the most experienced left-sided player from a back four that already looked stretched against Swiss width. Eljif Elmas and Enis Bardhi remain the creative core in midfield, and the record against Slovenia is worth noting: North Macedonia are unbeaten in the last three meetings, all of them tight, including a 1-1 at this ground. I still find it hard to see where the goals come from. A team that has not scored in five, is changing its forward line on the fly and is being asked to counter quickly by a coach demanding character is not a team I want to back to hit the net.
What works for or against North Macedonia
- Five games without a goal and nine without a win, with just two shots on target against Switzerland.
- Alioski is out injured, and Sedloski is changing several lines of the team, including a new-look attack, one day before the game.
- Unbeaten in the last three meetings with Slovenia (1-1, 2-1, 1-1), and Dimitrievski has been in excellent form.
- Cesar himself expects a quick counter-attacking side that stays high – exactly the approach that troubled Slovenia after the break against Scotland.
Slovenia vs North Macedonia Odds
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Slovenia vs. North Macedonia Stats Comparison
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Slovenia vs. North Macedonia Form Guide
Slovenia Form, Stats & Data
Slovenia’s squad is worth roughly five times North Macedonia’s, but €75m of that value is sitting out injured, and it is the €75m that scores the goals. Without Šeško the attack relies on Šporar, who has one disallowed goal to show for the Scotland game, and on service from Šturm and Matko that Cesar himself described as too cautious. The defensive side is the stronger argument: Bijol, Brekalo and Oblak held a Scotland side that created far more than North Macedonia have managed in five games, and I expect them to hold again. Sitting 56th in the FIFA ranking against a side 69th, with a home draw behind them and away games in Switzerland and Scotland to come, this is the fixture Slovenia have to take – but they have shown little sign of taking games by more than a goal.
North Macedonia Form, Stats & Data
The market value gap is the least of North Macedonia’s problems. A goal drought stretching over five internationals is not just a run of bad finishing; against Switzerland the team managed two shots on target and relied on Dimitrievski to keep the score respectable. Elmas and Bardhi are still capable of producing something out of nothing, and the record of three unbeaten meetings with Slovenia shows this is a fixture they do not fear, but Sedloski’s promise of wholesale changes in attack is an admission that the current front line is not working. Alioski’s absence weakens the left side of the defence as well, so I see the visitors as a team that will try to stay compact, hit on the break and hope the game stays low-scoring – which suits the main bet either way.
Slovenia vs North Macedonia: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, this game comes down to two attacks that are not functioning. North Macedonia have not scored in five games and are rebuilding their front line the day before kick-off; Slovenia have lost their only elite striker for the whole window and their manager has spent the week talking about a lack of killers in the final third. Both defences, by contrast, have just come through their harder test of the window – Oblak against Scotland, Dimitrievski against Switzerland – and the last three meetings between these sides produced two, three and two goals. Cesar needs a win, but I expect Slovenia to chase it patiently against a compact visitor rather than in an open exchange.
The strongest argument against is Slovenia’s own fragility after the hour. If they tire the way they did against Scotland and North Macedonia break quickly as Cesar fears, the game could open up late and a 2-1 either way is not far-fetched. Drkušić’s fitness is a factor there too. I still think the more likely picture is a tight, nervous game decided by one goal or not at all.
My main bet is **Under 2.5 goals at 1.55 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 1-0 to Slovenia.