Málaga’s winless start meets an Alavés side that needs to turn chances into points
Nine games, no wins, 18 goals conceded: Málaga are the only side in LaLiga still waiting for a victory, and the 5-2 home defeat to Real Sociedad on Sunday ended with supporters whistling and calling for sporting director Loren to go. Alavés have their own problem, a five-game winless run in the league, but it comes with a big caveat. At Balaídos last weekend they had 20 shots, nine of them on target, and still lost 2-1 to Celta.
“Este es nuestro proyecto y lo que nos ha llevado hasta aquí.” – Málaga coach Juan Funes after the 5-2 defeat to Real Sociedad (“This is our project and what has brought us this far.”)
Predicted lineups: Alavés vs Málaga
Ángel Pérez is available again after serving a one-match ban for his red card against Atlético Madrid, and Ville Koski has recovered. Facundo Garcés and Mikel Rodríguez are both out with cruciate ligament injuries. Málaga’s list keeps growing: Joaquín Muñoz, a regular on the wing, injured his calf in training on Wednesday and joins Diego Murillo, Aarón Ochoa, Julen Lobete and Juan Cruz on the sidelines. Both line-ups below are my best estimate.
Alavés Team News & Preview
Quique Sánchez Flores‘ side were third in September and have taken one point from their last five league games since. The run includes narrow home defeats to Valencia and Atlético Madrid and a 2-1 loss at Racing, so it is not a story of collapse. At Celta they dominated the shots, but Jutglà, Javi Rodríguez and Hugo Novoa scored from far fewer chances.
Lucas Boyé leads the scoring with five goals, and Mariano Díaz has four assists. Alavés have kept three clean sheets this season and earlier beat Getafe 3-0 and Osasuna 5-2 at Mendizorroza. The question is whether a team that has started to doubt itself can take control of a game they are expected to win.
What works for or against Alavés
- 20 shots and nine on target at Celta last weekend.
- Boyé has five league goals and Mariano Díaz four assists.
- One point from their last five league games.
- Ángel Pérez returns from suspension.
Málaga Team News & Preview
The Real Sociedad defeat showed how fragile Málaga are. They were 2-0 down within 25 minutes, and although Adrián Niño and Pablo Martínez scored in the second half, Real Sociedad added three more goals in 13 minutes. Juan Funes made a double change at half-time and has since defended his players and his approach, but he also accepted that the criticism starts with him.
The numbers are stark: six goals scored, 18 conceded and only one clean sheet in nine games. Málaga’s last top-flight win dates back to April 2018. Losing Muñoz, one of their few regular wide players, makes it harder for Funes to change the shape of a side that averages only three shots on target per game.
What works for or against Málaga
- Bottom of LaLiga and winless in nine games.
- 18 goals conceded, five of them on Sunday.
- Muñoz is a new absentee, joining four injured team-mates.
- Scored twice against Real Sociedad.
Alavés vs Málaga Odds
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Alavés vs. Malaga Stats Comparison
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Alavés vs. Malaga Form Guide
Alavés Form, Stats & Data
Alavés are comfortable without the ball, with only 42% possession, and their xG for and against are almost level. They have actually scored more than their chances suggest over the season, even if the last few weeks have gone the other way.
Malaga Form, Stats & Data
Málaga keep the ball for half of most games but create less than one expected goal per match. At the other end they allow 1.69 xG per game, so the defensive record is not just bad luck.
Alavés vs Málaga: Prediction & Betting Tip
I like Alavés to win this. Málaga have scored six and conceded 18 in nine games, they have lost another regular to injury, and the mood around the club after Sunday is poor. Alavés‘ winless run is real, but the performance at Celta suggests a side that is still creating plenty.
The main concern is confidence. Alavés have lost at home to Valencia and Atlético, and a team that has gone five games without a win can tighten up if the first goal does not come. Málaga did score twice against Real Sociedad. Even so, I would rather back the side creating chances against the side conceding them.
I am taking Deportivo Alavés to win at 1.75 with Winz, and 2-0 is my score.