Nice have yet to take a point away from home, and Brest rarely fail to score
All eight of Nice’s points have come at the Allianz Riviera. Away from home, Olivier Pantaloni’s side have lost three out of three and scored once, Elye Wahi’s deflected effort in Sunday’s 2-1 defeat at Lyon. Brest are an awkward place to start putting that right. Julien Lachuer’s team have scored in six of their seven league games, put five past Angers in their last home match and took a point at Lille last weekend.
“Il va falloir porter une attention particulière.” – Nice manager Olivier Pantaloni on Brest striker Ludovic Ajorque (“We will have to pay particular attention.”)
Predicted lineups: Brest vs Nice
Brest are without Brendan Chardonnet and Raphaël Le Guen, while Giovani Versini broke off training on Wednesday and is a doubt. Mama Baldé, who scored at Lille, went off at half-time there and has not been confirmed fit. Nice are missing Moïse Bombito, Laurent Abergel and Antoine Mendy, and Ali Abdi is still doubtful. Pantaloni and sporting director Roger Ricort have both publicly backed goalkeeper Yéhvann Diouf after his error at Lyon, so he should keep his place. These XIs are my best estimate.
Brest Team News & Preview
The 1-1 at Lille was a hard-earned point. Brest led after six minutes through Mama Baldé, then spent long spells without the ball, Lille had two-thirds of possession, and Egil Selvik made five saves before Olivier Giroud equalised from the penalty spot. It was a different kind of performance from the 5-1 against Angers, but it showed that this side can defend when it has to.
Kamory Doumbia is the attacking player to watch, with four league goals, and Ludovic Ajorque’s presence in the box is clearly on Nice’s mind. The weakness is at the back: Brest have not kept a clean sheet in the league this season, and both Chardonnet and Le Guen are missing.
What works for or against Brest
- Scored in six of seven league games.
- Beat Angers 5-1 in their last home game.
- No league clean sheet yet this season.
- Chardonnet and Le Guen are out, and Versini and Baldé are doubts.
Nice Team News & Preview
Pantaloni was proud of the second half at Lyon but admitted his side had sat too deep and suffered too much before the break. Nice actually matched Lyon on expected goals and had 12 shots, with Axel Witsel hitting the bar and Wahi the post. They were punished instead by Diouf spilling a shot for Lyon’s second goal and a set piece for the third.
That is the pattern away from home this season: defeats at Auxerre and Lyon and only one goal scored on their travels. With six league goals in seven games, Nice are among the lowest scorers in Ligue 1, and the absences of Bombito and Abergel weaken the spine of the team.
What works for or against Nice
- Three away league games, three defeats, one goal.
- Only six league goals in seven games.
- Matched Lyon on xG and hit the woodwork twice on Sunday.
- Bombito, Abergel and Mendy are all out.
Brest vs Nice Odds
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Brest vs. Nice Stats Comparison
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Brest vs. Nice Form Guide
Brest Form, Stats & Data
Brest create more than two expected goals per game despite having less of the ball than their opponents. Those are strong numbers for a mid-table side, and they back up the six games out of seven in which they have scored.
Nice Form, Stats & Data
Nice keep the ball well but produce only 1.19 xG per game and fewer than four shots on target. They have allowed more chances than they have created, which fits their poor away record.
Brest vs Nice: Prediction & Betting Tip
I think Brest are the better side here and I want them on my side, with the draw covered. Their attack creates far more than Nice’s, they score almost every week, and Nice have not taken a single point away from home. Diouf’s form in goal is another worry for the visitors.
The strongest argument for Nice is that their display at Lyon was better than the result, and Brest have not kept a clean sheet all season, so Nice will probably get chances of their own. That is why I am not backing the home win outright. With Draw No Bet, a Brest win pays and a draw returns the stake.
The pick is Brest Draw No Bet at 1.57 with Winz; I can see a 2-1 home win.