Iceland’s clean-sheet run meets a Bulgaria side still searching for goals
Iceland top Group C4 with eight points and can take a big step towards promotion to League B in Plovdiv. Arnar Gunnlaugsson’s side have not conceded in three Nations League games since the opening 1-1 with Estonia, and they beat Bulgaria 3-0 in Reykjavik six weeks ago. Bulgaria have four points and three goals from four games. Aleksandar Dimitrov resigned after the poor start, and interim manager Atanas Ribarski, who moved up from the Under-19s, got his first win in Luxembourg in his second game.
„Iceland are a team with a clear identity and structure. Their attacking moves are repeatable, and they can score goals.“ – Atanas Ribarski ahead of the game (via Plovdiv News, translated from Bulgarian)
Predicted lineups: Bulgaria vs Iceland
Bulgaria’s XI is the one predicted by Dsport and Marica. Left-back Simeon Shishkov misses out through a suspension carried over from the Under-21s, and Ribarski said he has no injury problems in the squad. Iceland’s line-up is the one projected by Fótbolti.net, with two changes from the 0-0 in Estonia: Kristall Máni Ingason on the wing and Mikael Egill Ellertsson back in defence after his ban. Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson stays in goal, with Elías Rafn Ólafsson still out injured.
Bulgaria Team News & Preview
Bulgaria’s campaign started badly with a 2-1 home defeat to Luxembourg and a home draw against Estonia. Dimitrov left, Ribarski took over, and the first game under the interim manager ended 3-0 in Reykjavik. A win in Luxembourg followed. The big number is three goals in four games, and according to Football Whispers they have scored more than once in only two of their last seven matches in all competitions.
Ribarski has brought in several young players and left out Kristian Dimitrov and Valentin Antov. Ilia Gruev of Leeds is the key man in midfield, but the attack depends on Atanas Iliev and wide players who have not been prolific at this level. A win would take Bulgaria to within a point of Iceland, so they will have to come forward – which also gives Iceland space to counter.
What works for or against Bulgaria
- Three goals in four group games.
- Lost 3-0 to Iceland in October.
- Home advantage and no injuries in the squad.
- First win under Ribarski came in Luxembourg.
Iceland Team News & Preview
After a 1-1 with Estonia in the opening game, Iceland have been very hard to beat: 3-0 in Luxembourg, 3-0 against Bulgaria and 0-0 in Estonia. That is one goal conceded in four games. Orri Steinn Óskarsson is in strong form with Real Sociedad, and he and Andri Lucas Guðjohnsen are expected to start together up front.
Gunnlaugsson arrived late in camp for personal reasons and said the squad was in good shape for November. Goalkeeper Elías Rafn Ólafsson remains out – the coach said his injury was much more serious than first thought – but Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson impressed in the last window. A win would put Iceland on the brink of top spot.
What works for or against Iceland
- Three consecutive clean sheets in the group.
- Beat Bulgaria 3-0 in October.
- First-choice goalkeeper Elías Rafn Ólafsson is injured.
- Only one win away from home in the group.
Bulgaria vs Iceland Odds
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Bulgaria Form, Stats & Data
0.75 goals per game is the key figure, and it is why my bet is on Bulgaria failing to score. They failed to score in Reykjavik, and three goals from four group games is a thin return for a side that now has to win.
Iceland Form, Stats & Data
0.25 goals conceded per game is the joint-best record in the group. Iceland have kept three clean sheets in a row, including away games in Luxembourg and Estonia, and I expect the same compact shape in Plovdiv.
Bulgaria vs Iceland: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am backing Iceland’s defence rather than their attack. They have kept three straight clean sheets, they shut Bulgaria out completely in October, and Bulgaria have scored three times in four group games. The hosts need a win, so they should have more of the ball than usual, but that has not been their strength.
The strongest argument against is that Iceland are without their first-choice goalkeeper and drew 1-1 with Estonia at home, so they are not invulnerable. Bulgaria also have home advantage and must win to stay in the race. Even so, I expect Bulgaria to draw a blank. Bulgaria Under 0.5 Team Goals at 2.26 with Winz is my bet for 3/10, and I expect Iceland to win 1-0 or 2-0.