One point from promotion – and both sides are short of key men in Maribor
Switzerland have won all four games in Group B1 and need just a draw at the Ljudski vrt to seal an instant return to League A. Slovenia, second on seven points, would lock in at least a promotion play-off with a win. The fixture was moved from Ljubljana to Maribor because of the state of the pitch at Stožice, and the stadium is sold out. Both sides arrive with significant absences: Switzerland are without captain Granit Xhaka, Miro Muheim, Johan Manzambi and Rubén Vargas, while Slovenia are missing Benjamin Šeško, Timi Max Elšnik and Jure Balkovec through injury and Erik Janža and David Zec through suspension.
„I believe we can compete with the favoured Swiss.“ – Boštjan Cesar at his pre-match press conference (via RTV SLO, translated from Slovenian)
Predicted lineups: Slovenia vs Switzerland
Slovenia’s line-up is the one previewed by buli-tipphilfe.de, with Cesar expected to use a back five. Jošt Urbančič and Žan Drkušić come in for the suspended Janža and Zec, and Cesar’s only fitness concern is defender David Brekalo, who had not trained normally at Brdo. Switzerland’s XI is the one published by Keystone-SDA: Breel Embolo is set to return up front after missing the October window, with Ardon Jashari replacing Xhaka next to Remo Freuler.
Slovenia Team News & Preview
Slovenia’s campaign has been built on defending. They drew 0-0 at home to Scotland, beat North Macedonia 2-0, lost 2-1 in Switzerland after Žan Vipotnik scored in the second minute, and won 2-1 away to Scotland. The last time they hosted Switzerland, in World Cup qualifying in October 2025, it finished 0-0. With Jan Oblak behind a back five, they rarely open up at home.
The problem is at the other end. Šeško has not played for Slovenia in over a year and is still injured, and the in-form Elšnik is also out. Without them, Vipotnik and Danijel Šturm have to carry most of the attacking load. The suspensions of Janža and Zec force Cesar to rebuild the back line that held firm in Scotland.
What works for or against Slovenia
- Two clean sheets in two home games in this group.
- Oblak is in goal and the last home meeting with Switzerland ended 0-0.
- Šeško and Elšnik are both missing.
- Janža and Zec are suspended and Brekalo is a doubt.
Switzerland Team News & Preview
Switzerland have been outstanding: 3-0 and 3-0 against North Macedonia, 3-0 against Scotland and 2-1 against Slovenia. The only goal they have conceded came from Vipotnik’s early strike in Lucerne. Murat Yakin has a deep squad, and he called Embolo „in top form“ on the eve of the game.
The absences are real, though. Xhaka is out with a calf injury, Manzambi left the camp, Muheim is injured and Vargas has missed training with a stomach bug. A draw is enough, and Yakin has every reason to accept a controlled game rather than chase a big win in Maribor.
What works for or against Switzerland
- Four wins from four and just one goal conceded.
- Embolo returns in form.
- Xhaka, Muheim, Manzambi and Vargas are all missing.
- A point is enough to secure promotion.
Slovenia vs Switzerland Odds
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Slovenia vs. Switzerland Stats Comparison
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Slovenia vs. Switzerland Form Guide
Slovenia Form, Stats & Data
0.75 goals conceded per game and two clean sheets at home show what Slovenia are about. Their 1.25 goals per game came without Šeško, but now Elšnik is missing too. Against the best defence in the group, I expect them to find chances hard to come by.
Switzerland Form, Stats & Data
2.75 goals per game is skewed by two 3-0 wins over North Macedonia, but 0.25 conceded per game is the stand-out figure. Three clean sheets in four group games, and the one goal they did let in came within two minutes of kick-off.
Slovenia vs Switzerland: Prediction & Betting Tip
This looks like a game for the defences. Switzerland have conceded once in four group games, Slovenia have not conceded at home in this campaign, and both attacks are missing key players. Switzerland only need a point, and Slovenia’s game plan under Cesar is to stay compact and wait for a chance. Several results win this bet: a goalless draw, a 1-0 either way, or a comfortable Swiss win without a Slovenian goal.
The strongest argument against is that Slovenia scored against Switzerland in Lucerne, and they will be backed by a sold-out stadium that wants to see them attack. If Switzerland score first, Slovenia have to come out, and that could open the game up at both ends. I still expect at least one of the two defences to keep a clean sheet. Both Teams to Score – No at 1.50 with Winz is my bet for 4/10, and I expect a 1-0 to Switzerland or a goalless draw.