Bilić’s first home game, in an empty Rijeka, against an England side that has stopped leaking
Croatia host England at the Stadion Rujevica in Rijeka on Saturday, 3 October 2026, on matchday three of UEFA Nations League A, Group 3, with kick-off at 18:00 CEST. Both sides have three points behind Spain: Croatia won 2-1 in Prague and were then taken apart 4-1 in Seville, England lost 3-2 to Spain at Wembley and recovered with a 2-0 in Prague. The stadium will be almost empty – UEFA’s sanction for discriminatory incidents against France last year means no paying public, with an exception for several thousand children – which removes the one thing Croatia could normally count on in a game like this. For Bilić, back in charge of the national team, it is the first home match of his second spell, and it follows a defeat he described as unacceptable.
„Izgledalo je kao da smo došli biti dio njihove proslave naslova svjetskog prvaka“ – Bilić on Seville: it looked as if Croatia had come to be part of Spain’s World Cup celebration.
Predicted lineups: Croatia vs England
Tportal reported a „leaked“ Croatian side on Thursday that returns to the strongest eleven: Livaković; Stanišić, back after missing Seville with a virus, Vušković, Gvardiol and Perišić; Modrić and Kovačić, both benched in Spain as rotation with this game in mind; Luka and Petar Sučić with Baturina, also back from illness, behind Budimir. The one dilemma is whether Gvardiol, who has played 180 minutes, is rested for Šutalo. England’s side is a projection: Tuchel rotated goalkeepers between Pickford and Trafford, Konsa and O’Reilly missed training with minor issues before Prague and O’Reilly did not travel, and Bellingham came off with a niggle that Tuchel hopes „is nothing serious and he’s available for Croatia“. Alexander-Arnold, Anderson, Lewis-Skelly, Saka, Gordon and Kane started in Prague and are kept here; Branthwaite comes in for Chalobah in most projections. Rice, Palmer, Rashford, Mainoo and Livramento withdrew before the window.
Croatia Team News & Preview
Seville was the kind of defeat that makes a manager talk about identity. Bilić made six changes from the Prague win, left Modrić and Kovačić on the bench and set up a 4-4-2 that sat deep; Yamal scored after two minutes, Beljo equalised from a Perišić cross on 28, and then Pubill, Yamal again and Nico Williams turned it into a 4-1. The numbers were brutal – Spain 64 per cent of the ball, 16 shots and 1.77 expected goals, Croatia five shots and 0.44 – and Bilić’s verdict afterwards was that his team had been „loši u svakom smislu“, bad in every sense, with too much air and too much space given to Spain. He also noted that England had not allowed Spain the same room in the 3-2 at Wembley, which tells you what he expects on Saturday.
The response is to go back to the strongest side. Stanišić and Baturina are over their viruses, Modrić and Kovačić return to the midfield, and the Croatian analysts want a tighter back four with two holders and Petar Sučić deeper, because the memory of the World Cup meeting – a 4-2 defeat in Dallas in which Croatia were second to most aerial and physical duels – is still fresh. Beljo’s line that Rujevica is „the chance to forget everything that happened in Seville“ sums up the mood, but the stadium will be close to silent, and the record against this opponent is three straight defeats. Croatia’s six-game form reads two wins and four losses; the two wins were against Czechia and Ghana.
What works for or against Croatia
- Modrić, Kovačić, Stanišić and Baturina all return to a side that won in Prague with its strongest eleven.
- Five shots and 0.44 expected goals in Seville, and a manager who says the team looked like guests at Spain's party.
- Three straight defeats to England, including the 4-2 at the World Cup in which Croatia lost the physical and aerial battles, and now a home game without a crowd.
- Gvardiol may be rested after 180 minutes; Šutalo is the alternative in the back four.
England Team News & Preview
Prague gave Tuchel what he had been missing. Šulc’s red card on 25 minutes helped, but the second half was controlled: Gordon headed in an Alexander-Arnold cross on 47 minutes, Kane added the second on 69 via a deflection, Rogers hit the post, and England finished with 22 shots, seven on target, 66 per cent of the ball and an expected-goals figure of 1.37 against 0.33. The clean sheet was the first after six games and 13 goals conceded, and Tuchel called the second-half performance „very professional“. Alexander-Arnold’s first start under him produced the assist, Trafford kept goal, and Scott and Ngumoha made debuts off the bench.
The squad is still short. Five players withdrew before the window, Konsa and O’Reilly picked up minor issues and O’Reilly stayed in England, and Bellingham’s late niggle is the one Tuchel will be watching. The attacking unit, though, is intact: Saka, Gordon, Kane and Bellingham have now scored or created in both games, and the midfield of Anderson and Lewis-Skelly handled a ten-man Czech side without fuss. Against Croatia the test is different – Modrić and Kovačić keep the ball better than Czechia did – but the June meeting showed that England’s physical edge and set-piece threat trouble this opponent, and an empty stadium strips away the usual Croatian advantage. England have scored twice in both games this month; Croatia have conceded in both of theirs.
What works for or against England
- A 2-0 win in Prague with 22 shots and the first clean sheet in seven games, and a 4-2 win over Croatia at the World Cup in June.
- Saka, Gordon, Kane and Bellingham have been involved in goals in both games, and the game is played without a hostile crowd.
- Rice, Palmer, Rashford, Mainoo and Livramento are out, Konsa and O'Reilly are doubts and Bellingham has a niggle – the depth is thin.
- The clean sheet came against ten men; the previous six games produced 13 goals conceded, including three to Spain.
Croatia vs England Odds
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Croatia Form, Stats & Data
Three goals scored and six conceded in two games, with the Seville numbers – five shots, 0.44 expected goals, one big chance – showing how little Croatia produced once the game was taken away from them. The Prague win was built on Modrić and Kovačić controlling the midfield and on a disallowed Czech equaliser, and both of those players return here. What I take from the two games is a side that can be competitive with its first eleven and falls apart without it, and that has been beaten three times in a row by England, each time with the physical contest decided against it. Without a crowd, I do not see where the extra ten per cent comes from.
England Form, Stats & Data
Four goals in two games from Gordon and Kane, 22 shots in Prague and the first clean sheet in seven are the attacking and defensive headlines, and the attacking one is the more reliable: this front four has scored in both games and in the 4-2 against Croatia in June. The defence remains the question, because the clean sheet came against ten men and the previous six games produced 13 goals conceded. That is why I prefer the straight win to any clean-sheet market, and why both teams scoring is a live alternative. The injury list is long but the eleven that beat Czechia is largely available, and Tuchel’s handling of Bellingham’s niggle is the main thing to watch on Friday.
Croatia vs England: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, the two most recent performances point the same way. England controlled a game in Prague with the ball and the chances; Croatia were overrun in Seville and their manager said so in the plainest terms. Croatia’s strongest side returns and Modrić and Kovačić will make this harder than Czechia did, but the pattern against England – three straight defeats, the physical battles lost in Dallas – and a stadium with no crowd leave the hosts with fewer levers than usual. England’s attack has scored twice in both games this month and Croatia have conceded in both of theirs.
The strongest argument against is England’s own defence and depth. Thirteen goals conceded in the six games before Prague, a clean sheet that came against ten men, five senior players missing and Bellingham carrying a knock mean Croatia, with Perišić’s delivery and Budimir in the box, will get chances. A 1-1 is a perfectly plausible outcome, and the 0-0 these sides played in Rijeka in 2018 under the same closed-doors conditions is a reminder of how flat such games can be. That is why the stake is moderate.
My main bet is **England to win at 1.91 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 1-2.