Depleted Slovenia visit a Switzerland side that has not conceded without its captain
Switzerland host Slovenia at the Thermoplan Arena in Lucerne on Saturday, 3 October 2026, on matchday three of UEFA Nations League B, Group 1, kick-off 20:45 CEST, in their first home game since November 2025. Murat Yakin’s side lead the group with six points and a 6-0 aggregate from two away wins, achieved without their captain and their centre-forward; a win here would secure first place and promotion back to League A with a game to spare. Slovenia are second on four points after a 0-0 with Scotland and a 2-0 over North Macedonia, but Boštjan Cesar makes the trip with three forwards ruled out and the federation confirming on Wednesday that Šporar and Verbič join Šeško on the sidelines.
„Ich wollte dem Team helfen, nicht Granit ersetzen“ – Ardon Jashari on stepping into Xhaka’s role in Skopje: he wanted to help the team, not replace Granit.
Predicted lineups: Switzerland vs Slovenia
No Swiss outlet had published an expected eleven for Lucerne by Thursday, so the side below is the one that started in Skopje with the single change Yakin made for Glasgow, Aebischer for Rieder. Jashari has been the „Schaltzentrale“ in Xhaka’s place alongside Freuler, Amdouni plays as the striker in Embolo’s absence and wears Xhaka’s number ten for the window, and Athekame, a debutant at right-back, has two assists already. Zakaria and Amenda withdrew injured before the camp and were replaced by Schmidt, Sierro and Monteiro. Slovenia’s projection is the side that beat North Macedonia with the obvious adjustment: Vipotnik, who hit the bar and missed several first-half chances in that game, is now the only recognised striker, with Celar the other option. Drkušić was substituted against Scotland but started and finished against North Macedonia; Elšnik and Matko were rested for that game and are likely to return.
Switzerland Team News & Preview
The scandal that cost Switzerland their captain and their striker has, so far, cost them nothing on the pitch. Xhaka left the camp after admitting a forged Covid certificate from 2022 and Embolo was kept out by the federation over fake test reports, and Yakin’s response was to make Jashari the hub of the midfield next to Freuler and to move Amdouni into the centre of the attack. In Skopje the team had the best part of 17 attempts in the first half alone, Freuler scored from an Amdouni assist, and Amdouni added two more from Athekame deliveries in a 3-0; at Hampden, helped by Hendry’s eighth-minute red card, Rodríguez scored a free-kick, Elvedi scored on his 75th cap and Amdouni finished a third, with Ndoye providing two assists and Scotland failing to manage a shot on target. Yakin’s view of Jashari was that he was „die Schaltzentrale“, once or twice too hasty; Amdouni’s that he was simply happy to be starting.
Lucerne is the first home game since last November and the Swiss press has framed it as the night promotion can be settled. The defence of Elvedi, Akanji, Rodríguez and Kobel has not conceded in 180 minutes, albeit against two sides who have scored nothing between them in the competition, and Slovenia arrive with their forward line stripped bare. The caveats are real: Yakin missed the Glasgow press conference with ear problems after a delayed flight, Rodríguez’s place has been questioned by Blick, and the two opponents so far have been the weakest in the group. But a side that scores three away from home twice running, with the attack rebuilt on the fly, is not one I expect to be troubled by a Slovenia team whose only striker in form is Vipotnik.
What works for or against Switzerland
- Two 3-0 wins away from home, Amdouni, Ndoye and Athekame all with multiple goal involvements, and no goal conceded in the campaign.
- The last home meeting with Slovenia was a 3-0 in Basel a year ago, with two headers from corners – set pieces remain a weapon.
- Xhaka and Embolo are out for the window and Zakaria and Amenda withdrew injured; the clean sheets came against two sides without a goal in the competition.
- First home game since November 2025 and a win would settle first place – the pressure is on the hosts to finish the job.
Slovenia Team News & Preview
Cesar has four points, two clean sheets and no strikers. Šeško has not played for Slovenia since the manager took over and is out for all four autumn games with the leg problem that flared after Brighton; on Wednesday the federation confirmed that Šporar, who started against Scotland, and Verbič, who missed both September games, are out of the October trip as well, with no replacements named. Prelec and Zaletel had already been replaced by Balkovec and Celar before the window. That leaves Vipotnik, who hit the bar and missed several chances against North Macedonia, and Celar as the only centre-forwards in the squad, and the two goals Slovenia have scored came from Lovrić, a deflected strike, and Matko, a late counter – a midfielder and a winger.
The defence is the strength. Oblak kept Scotland out almost alone in a second half Slovenia barely survived – 17 shots to three over the game, 14 to one after the break – and then had a quieter night against North Macedonia as Bijol, Drkušić and Brekalo kept a second clean sheet. Cesar called the 2-0 „popolna tekma“, a perfect match, while admitting the opponent was not from the top tier, and Matko’s line this week was that Slovenia can compete with bigger nations „s pravim pristopom in borbenostjo“ – with the right approach and fight. The problem is the other end. In Basel a year ago Slovenia lost 3-0 and in Ljubljana they drew 0-0, so they have not scored against Switzerland in 180 minutes, and that was with Šeško and Šporar available. Without them, against a defence that has not conceded this autumn, I expect Slovenia to defend well and to draw a blank.
What works for or against Slovenia
- Šeško, Šporar and Verbič are all out, leaving Vipotnik and Celar as the only strikers – both September goals came from a midfielder and a winger.
- No goal against Switzerland in the last two meetings – 0-3 in Basel, 0-0 in Ljubljana – even with Šeško and Šporar in the side.
- Two clean sheets, Oblak in outstanding form and a back three of Bijol, Drkušić and Brekalo that has settled.
- Outshot 17-3 by Scotland and completely overrun after half-time – a sign of what happens when the opponent raises the tempo.
Switzerland vs Slovenia Odds
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Switzerland vs. Slovenia Form Guide
Switzerland Form, Stats & Data
Six goals scored and none conceded is as clean a two-game record as the competition allows, and the way the goals have come – Amdouni three, Freuler, Rodríguez from a free-kick, Elvedi from a corner – shows a side scoring from open play and set pieces alike. The missing names matter less than expected because the structure held: Jashari and Freuler control the middle, Ndoye and Athekame supply from wide, and Kobel has had little to do. Against a Slovenia side with no fit senior striker, the defensive side of that record is the one I lean on, and the attacking side is why a one-goal handicap is my alternative.
Slovenia Form, Stats & Data
Two goals in two games, both against a North Macedonia side without a goal in six, and none from a striker: that is the attacking profile Slovenia bring to Lucerne, and it is now without Šeško, Šporar and Verbič. The defensive profile is the opposite – two clean sheets, Oblak decisive, a compact back three – and it is why I would not back Switzerland to win by three again. But a team that managed three shots in the whole game against Scotland and has not scored against Switzerland in its last two meetings is a team I expect to draw a blank here, however well it defends.
Switzerland vs Slovenia: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, the decisive fact is the Slovenian forward line. Šeško, Šporar and Verbič are all out, the two September goals came from Lovrić and Matko against the weakest side in the group, and the last two meetings with Switzerland produced no Slovenian goal at all with a full attack. Switzerland have not conceded in the competition, have won twice by three goals without their captain and striker, and play their first home game of the campaign with first place on the line. A Swiss win is the likeliest outcome; a Swiss clean sheet is the bet I trust most.
The strongest argument against is that Slovenia’s defence can keep this close and that one set piece or one Vipotnik moment is all it takes to beat the team-goals line – Switzerland’s clean sheets came against North Macedonia and a ten-man Scotland, not against a side with Bijol and Oblak behind it. A 1-1 or a scrappy 2-1 is not far-fetched if the hosts, with the pressure of sealing promotion, start slowly. That is why the stake is moderate.
My main bet is **Slovenia under 0.5 team goals at 1.71 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 2-0.