MVV’s injury list keeps growing, and Den Bosch are building momentum at De Vliert
MVV Maastricht had nine players unavailable when Heracles beat them 5-1 last weekend, and the club itself admitted the list had reached that number. It was their third defeat in a row, after a 4-1 at TOP Oss and a 1-0 at NAC. FC Den Bosch go into the game in better shape: unbeaten in three, and fresh from a 2-1 derby win over TOP Oss in which they scored twice in the first 13 minutes.
MVV were without Hofland, Coomans, Tehubijuluw, Van Dessel, Mpudi, Schenk, Timber, Vinogradac and El Hamdaoui against Heracles.
Predicted lineups: Den Bosch vs MVV
Bart Schreuder made two changes for the derby, handing Boris van Schuppen his debut and recalling Ilias Boumassaoudi, and no new injuries have been reported since. MVV have not said which of their nine absentees could return, so Andries Jonker may have to name a similar side to the one that lost to Heracles. Both line-ups are my best estimate.
Den Bosch Team News & Preview
The derby was won early. Sheddy Barglan scored after eight minutes and Sebastian Karlsson Grach added the second five minutes later, and although TOP Oss hit the bar and pulled one back very late, Den Bosch held on. Karlsson Grach now has five league goals, and Kévin Monzialo has been their best-rated player.
De Vliert has become a decent place for Den Bosch again. They have beaten Helmond and TOP Oss and drawn with Dordrecht in their last three home games, and they won 1-0 at Jong AZ in between. The concern is the defence: 19 goals conceded in 11 games is too many for a side with top-half ambitions.
What works for or against Den Bosch
- Unbeaten in three, including the derby win over TOP Oss.
- Karlsson Grach has five league goals.
- 19 goals conceded in 11 games.
- MVV won 2-1 at De Vliert in January.
MVV Team News & Preview
The Heracles game started well for MVV. Sil van der Wegen gave them the lead after half an hour, but they conceded twice before half-time and three more after it, and Heracles finished with 11 shots on target to MVV’s three. The defeat followed losses at TOP Oss and NAC, so MVV have conceded ten goals in their last three games.
The absences are the main explanation. Nine players unavailable is a huge number in this division, and the club has given no update on who might return. Olivier Dumont, with five goals, is still the man most likely to produce something, but MVV average only three shots on target per game.
What works for or against MVV
- Three straight league defeats and ten goals conceded in them.
- Nine players unavailable at the weekend.
- Dumont has five league goals.
- Won three of the last five meetings with Den Bosch.
Den Bosch vs MVV Odds
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Den Bosch vs. Maastricht Stats Comparison
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Den Bosch vs. Maastricht Form Guide
Den Bosch Form, Stats & Data
Den Bosch are not a possession side, but they get more than five shots on target per game. The problem has been at the back, where they concede almost as often as they score.
Maastricht Form, Stats & Data
MVV keep the ball well, but three shots on target per game is a very low return for that possession. Their goal difference of minus 11 is one of the worst for a team in the top half.
Den Bosch vs MVV: Prediction & Betting Tip
I like Den Bosch to win. They are in better form, they create more, and MVV are badly depleted after three straight defeats. Den Bosch’s attack, led by Karlsson Grach, should get chances against a defence that has conceded ten goals in three games.
The strongest argument against is MVV’s record in this fixture, with three wins in the last five meetings, including at De Vliert in January. Den Bosch’s own defence is also leaky, so MVV may well score. Even so, the personnel situation is too one-sided for me to look past the home win.
The pick is FC Den Bosch to win at 1.65 with Winz, and I see a 2-1 home win.