Rotating Denmark meet a Portugal side distracted by the Ronaldo question
Denmark host Portugal at a sold-out Parken in Copenhagen on Thursday, 1 October 2026, on matchday three of UEFA Nations League A, Group 4, kick-off 20:45 CEST. The holders lead the group with six points after a narrow win over Wales and a 2-1 in Oslo; Brian Riemer’s Denmark have three after losing 2-3 in Norway and beating Wales 2-0. Three days between games is, in Rasmus Højlund’s words, „lige på nippen“ – borderline – and Riemer has confirmed changes are coming while keeping the spine of the team. Ukrainian referee Mykola Balakin is in charge.
„Jeg tror, deres bedste hold er med Cristiano Ronaldo“ – Brian Riemer believes Portugal’s best team is the one with Ronaldo in it, and called the debate around him a bit of an insult.
Predicted lineups: Denmark vs Portugal
Riemer will name his side around 19:30 on Thursday and has said openly that he cannot run the same eleven through four games. The Danish press expects Froholdt to come back into the side with Damsgaard returning to the left wing and Isaksen kept on the right, the Højbjerg–Hjulmand pivot untouched, and Daramy continuing at left-back for Dorgu. Portugal’s eleven is the more interesting question: Jesus dropped Ronaldo, Fernandes, Vitinha and Rúben Neves for Oslo and won with Félix and Gonçalo Ramos up front, said afterwards that „na Dinamarca, se calhar é ele que vai jogar“ – in Denmark maybe he is the one who plays – and then spent Tuesday evening in a meeting with Ronaldo that the Portuguese press describes as clearing the air. Fernandes trained fully on Monday and is expected to return; Conceição is described as extremely doubtful; Félix skipped Tuesday’s session as a precaution after playing every minute. Sports Mole has Ronaldo starting between Félix and Neto, PortuGOAL keeps Ramos and Leão with Ronaldo on the bench, so the front line below is one of two credible versions.
Denmark Team News & Preview
Denmark’s two games showed both the attack and the problem. In Oslo, Bobb and Haaland put Norway 2-0 up inside 18 minutes, Damsgaard and Højlund pulled Denmark level either side of the break and Haaland won it on 74; shots were 13-13, expected goals 1.47 to 1.08 in Norway’s favour, and Denmark conceded three from a side that had eleven shots inside the box. Against Wales at Parken it was set pieces that decided it: Ben Davies turned a Damsgaard free-kick into his own net on 53 minutes and Isaksen scored from another Damsgaard delivery three minutes later, with set-piece coach Daniel Agger credited, an early Isaksen goal disallowed and Daramy missing a huge chance. Two goals in each game, three conceded across them, and a striker in Højlund who now has 14 goals in 37 caps and scored the only goal the last time Portugal came to Parken.
The changes are forced as much as chosen. Dorgu went off after half an hour against Wales, has left the camp, and Riemer called it „pisseærgerligt“; Christensen, Bah, Dolberg and Grønbæk were not in the squad to begin with. Daramy takes the left-back slot, Froholdt is expected to return in midfield, and Riemer has explicitly promised rotation while keeping „lidt af holdets rygrad“ – some of the team’s backbone. Denmark’s record at Parken is the argument for them: unbeaten in six home games, a single defeat here in four years, and that 1-0 over Portugal in March 2025. The three goals conceded in Oslo, and a reshuffled left side against Portugal’s counter-attacking front line, are the argument for both teams scoring.
What works for or against Denmark
- Two goals in each game, Højlund on 14 in 37 caps, Damsgaard's set-piece delivery producing both goals against Wales – and a 1-0 over Portugal at Parken in March 2025.
- Unbeaten in six at home, one Parken defeat in four years, and a sold-out crowd.
- Three conceded in Oslo, Dorgu out, a stand-in left-back and rotation across the team with three days' rest.
- Riemer keeps the Højbjerg–Hjulmand pivot and Højlund, but has promised changes elsewhere.
Portugal Team News & Preview
Portugal have six points and a week of headlines. Jorge Jesus left Ronaldo, Fernandes, Vitinha and Rúben Neves out of the side in Oslo and won 2-1 with a counter-attacking, pressing performance: Félix finished a break after Mendes won the ball, Haaland levelled from a deflected free-kick just after half-time, and Gonçalo Ramos pounced on a stray Nyland pass to win it, with Diogo Costa making five saves and Norway managing 22 shots to Portugal’s 12. Ronaldo, 41, sat unused on the bench for the first time in a competitive match since 2008, walked straight down the tunnel at full-time, skipped Tuesday’s session in Malmö to work in the hotel gym, and the federation president flew to Copenhagen overnight before Jesus and Ronaldo met on Tuesday evening. The Portuguese press now describes the tension as overcome, and Jesus’s own hint is that Ronaldo plays in Denmark.
Whichever way he goes, the selection is a trade. A Bola’s numbers from the two games show Ramos winning seven duels and making five defensive actions to Ronaldo’s none, with Ronaldo offside three times but taking seven shots; Félix and Ramos have combined well, and breaking that pair to fit Ronaldo changes how Portugal press. Fernandes missed Oslo with what Jesus called a decision to have him „limpinho“ – clean – for Denmark and trained fully on Monday; Conceição is the doubt after a hard tackle. Portugal have won four of the last five meetings and hold a 12-4 edge over Denmark all-time, and they have scored in both games this month against defences that gave them very little. That, and the Ronaldo–Ramos–Félix firepower, is why I expect them to score here; Denmark’s home form and set pieces are why I do not expect them to keep a clean sheet doing it.
What works for or against Portugal
- Two wins from two, four of the last five meetings with Denmark won, and a counter-attacking win in Oslo with Diogo Costa in top form.
- A week of Ronaldo-related tension, Conceição extremely doubtful, Fernandes only just back and a striker decision that changes the shape of the press.
- Conceded to Norway from a set piece and lost 1-0 at Parken in March 2025 – Denmark have hurt them here before.
- Félix has played every minute and scored, Ramos scored off the bench in Oslo, and Vitinha and Fernandes return to the midfield.
Denmark vs Portugal Odds
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Handicap
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Both Teams to Score
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Denmark vs. Portugal Stats Comparison
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Denmark vs. Portugal Form Guide
Denmark Form, Stats & Data
Four goals in two games from three different scorers and an own goal forced by a set piece is a healthy attacking profile for a team that has only one out-and-out striker in Højlund, and Damsgaard’s delivery gives Denmark a route to goal that does not depend on open play against Portugal’s press. The defence is the weaker half: three conceded in Oslo from eleven shots in the box, and now a left side rebuilt around Daramy after Dorgu’s injury against exactly the kind of quick, wide counter-attack that beat Norway. The Parken record and last year’s 1-0 make Denmark live for a result; the Oslo numbers make a clean sheet unlikely.
Portugal Form, Stats & Data
Two wins by a single goal, three goals scored, one conceded from a set piece: Portugal have been efficient rather than dominant, with 12 shots to Norway’s 22 in Oslo and Diogo Costa needed five times. Félix has both of the goals that opened games, Ramos has the finishing form, and the midfield gets Vitinha and Fernandes back, so the attacking quality is the highest in the group. The question is stability. Ronaldo’s return would change the press that worked in Oslo, Conceição’s likely absence removes width, and a sold-out Parken against a side that has beaten them here before is a harder evening than Wales or a Norway side that gifted them a goal. I expect Portugal to score – they have in both games – and to be made to work for a result.
Denmark vs Portugal: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, the picture is two attacks that are working and two defences that are not settled. Denmark have scored twice in every game this month and carry Damsgaard’s set-piece threat, which is exactly what beat Portugal at Parken in 2025 and what conceded Norway’s goal in Oslo. Portugal have scored in both games with a front line that Jesus is about to reshuffle, and they face a Danish back line that let in three in Norway and has just lost its first-choice left-back. Both teams scoring is the outcome that fits the most evidence.
The strongest argument against is Portugal’s control. If Vitinha and Fernandes give the visitors the midfield and Diogo Costa continues as in Oslo, a 0-1 or 0-2 on the counter is realistic, and Denmark’s rotation could leave the home attack short of rhythm; Wales, after all, did not score against either of them. That is why I keep the stake moderate and would not go near a Danish win outright.
My main bet is **Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.62 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 1-2.