Greece defend a historic high in a sold-out Toumba against Gakpo-less Netherlands
Greece host the Netherlands at the Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki on Thursday, 1 October 2026, on matchday three of UEFA Nations League A, Group 2, with kick-off at 21:45 local time, 20:45 CEST. Ivan Jovanović’s side lead the group with six points after a stoppage-time winner in Belgrade and a first-ever victory over Germany; Xavi’s Netherlands have four after a late Gakpo equaliser against Germany and a 2-1 in Serbia that the Dutch press found dominant but sloppy. The ground sold out in record time and both sides play again here or at home on Sunday, so rotation and fatigue are part of the calculation. Italian referee Marco Guida is in charge.
„Δείξαμε ότι δίκαια είμαστε εδώ“ – Jovanović after Augsburg: Greece showed they deserve to be at this level.
Predicted lineups: Greece vs Netherlands
Jovanović said before the window that he would only change the team for fatigue or injury, and both now apply. Vagiannidis, substituted at half-time in Augsburg, is out of both October home games with Saliakas the obvious replacement at right-back and Tsapras called up as cover; Kostoulas is available again after stitches in his foot but may start on the bench. Tsimikas, Retsos and Mavropanos have played every minute, Zafeiris came off early in the second half against Germany and Greek reports mention a Kourbelis–Androutsos pairing as an option. For the Netherlands, Xavi only tells his players the line-up two hours before kick-off, but the Dutch outlets agree on two changes to the Belgrade side: Timber for Van Hecke, whom Theo Janssen called the weakest link, and Van Bommel for the injured Gakpo. Meerdink, scorer of both goals in Belgrade, keeps his place through the middle.
Greece Team News & Preview
Augsburg was a defensive masterclass by design. Greece left the ball to Germany – Tzolakis’s own words were that „in the first half we left the ball to the Germans“ – and sat in a compact block with around 30 per cent possession, Tzolakis saving from Adeyemi, Conté and a Kimmich free-kick before Kourbelis struck the only goal in the second half. Ioannidis wasted two late chances to make it comfortable, and Novasports described the defence as fit for a seminar. Three days earlier in Belgrade the pattern had been similar: an early Serbian lead absorbed, Tzolis levelling and Douvikas heading the winner in the fourth minute of stoppage time. Two wins, two goals conceded, and the manager’s message afterwards was to stay grounded.
The cost is physical. Tsimikas, Retsos and Mavropanos have 180 minutes in their legs, Vagiannidis is gone, and Jovanović’s own rule – changes only for fatigue or injury – means he will be tinkering rather than rotating, with Saliakas at right-back and Kourbelis possibly promoted after his goal. Kostoulas returns to give Pavlidis a partner or a replacement, and Tzolis and Karetsas, both with PAOK connections, walk into a Toumba that sold out in record time. Greece’s previous four games before this window were 0-1, 0-0, 2-2 and 0-1, and the home record before this window was poor, but the current team is one that plays for a single goal and defends it, and against a Dutch attack missing its best forward that suits a low-scoring game far more than an open one.
What works for or against Greece
- Two wins from two, both by a single goal, with Tzolakis in outstanding form and a block that gave Germany around 70 per cent of the ball and still kept a clean sheet.
- Toumba is sold out with a waiting list above 100,000, and Tzolis and Karetsas return to a ground they know.
- Vagiannidis is out, three defenders have played every minute of the window, and Greece have lost three of their last four home games.
- Jovanović changes his team only for fatigue or injury – expect the same structure with Saliakas at right-back.
Netherlands Team News & Preview
Xavi’s first window has brought four points and a long injury list. The 1-1 with Germany in Amsterdam was rescued by Gakpo in stoppage time; in Belgrade Meerdink converted a penalty after Terzić fouled Summerville, Jović equalised straight after the break, and Meerdink scored again on 69 minutes, with Van Bommel hitting the post and Reijnders skying a Dumfries cross. NOS called it dominant but not convincing, at times sloppy, and Xavi himself said the side must play better because „especially in the first half we did not press properly“. Gakpo lasted 17 minutes in Belgrade before going off injured and has left the camp, joining Brobbey, Malen, Kluivert, Frenkie de Jong, Xavi Simons and De Ligt on the unavailable list; Timber is fit again after a groin issue.
The Dutch shape is a 4-3-3 with a possession game that Xavi has said will never become a back five, and in build-up it tends to form a three of Van Hecke or Timber, Van Dijk and Van de Ven. The right side of Summerville and Dumfries is the threat Greek analysts have highlighted, and Meerdink has shown he finishes the chances he gets. What the Netherlands do not have without Gakpo is a second reliable source of goals, and the manager’s late team-sheet rule – announced two hours before kick-off – has drawn at least mild public discomfort from Van de Ven. The Netherlands have won nine of eleven meetings with Greece and are unbeaten in seven, which is why they are favourites; the form of both attacks and the shape of the home side are why I do not expect many goals.
What works for or against the Netherlands
- Unbeaten in seven with one defeat in 22, nine wins in eleven meetings with Greece, and Meerdink scoring twice in Belgrade.
- Gakpo has left the camp injured, joining Brobbey, Malen, Kluivert, De Jong, Simons and De Ligt – the attack loses its most dangerous player.
- Both games under Xavi were rated dominant but unconvincing, with the manager himself criticising the pressing.
- Timber returns to the defence and the Summerville–Dumfries right side is the most dangerous unit on the pitch.
Greece vs Netherlands Odds
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Greece vs. Netherlands Form Guide
Greece Form, Stats & Data
Three goals scored, two conceded, six points: Greece are winning the way compact teams win, and the individual numbers underline it – about 30 per cent of the ball in Augsburg, a handful of shots, three big Tzolakis saves and one decisive strike. That is not a profile that produces high-scoring games at either end, and the four matches before the window (one goal, none, four, one) say the same. The fatigue in the back line and the loss of Vagiannidis are the real risks, because a tired block concedes late, as Serbia found against Greece rather than the other way round. I expect Greece to defend deep again and I expect the game to be decided by one or two goals at most.
Netherlands Form, Stats & Data
Three goals in two games, two of them by Meerdink and one a stoppage-time equaliser from a player who is now injured, is not a prolific start for a side that had most of the ball in both matches. The Dutch problem is not chance creation but conversion and, without Gakpo, variety: Meerdink is the finisher, Van Bommel is the stand-in, and the wide threat comes mostly from the right. Against a Greek block that kept Germany out for 90 minutes, I expect the Netherlands to have 60 per cent of the ball and struggle to turn it into more than a goal or two. Their quality makes them favourites; their attack this month does not make them a high-scoring one.
Greece vs Netherlands: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, the game is defined by the home side’s shape. Greece have just shown against Germany that they can concede 70 per cent possession and still keep a clean sheet, and Jovanović will not change a structure that is working, even with tired legs. The Netherlands, meanwhile, have three goals in two games with most of the ball, have lost the man who scored one of them, and were described by their own press as sloppy in Belgrade. A 0-1, 1-0 or 1-1 covers most of what I can picture in Thessaloniki.
The strongest argument against is Greek fatigue and Dutch depth. Three defenders on 180 minutes, a changed right-back and a home record of three defeats in four could open the game late if the Netherlands keep the ball for long enough, and Meerdink has scored twice from limited chances already. A 1-3 is possible if the block breaks. On what both teams have actually produced this month, though, I lean firmly to the low side.
My main bet is **Under 2.5 goals at 2.19 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 0-1.