Baptista’s Inter debut meets a Corinthians side stuck in freefall
Internacional host Corinthians at Beira-Rio on Wednesday night (19:30 local time, 00:30 CEST on Thursday) in round 29 of the Brasileirão, and both clubs arrive looking over their shoulders. Inter sit 18th on 28 points and are in the relegation zone; Corinthians are 14th on 32, only three points clear of it after six straight league defeats. It is Eduardo Baptista’s first game as Inter manager, while Fernando Diniz is still in the Corinthians dugout only because the board and the players decided to stick with him.
Corinthians have not won a league game at Beira-Rio since July 2016. Seven of their last ten visits ended in a draw, the other three in Inter wins.
Predicted lineups: Internacional vs Corinthians
Baptista used the international break to change the shape. Local reports from his training sessions point to a back three with Bruno Gomes, usually a midfielder or right-back, alongside Mercado, Thiago Maia coming into midfield and Alerrandro leading the line because Sanabria picked up a calf injury with Paraguay. Rochet is still not ready after back surgery, so Matheus Cunha stays in goal. Matheus Bahia is a doubt with a hamstring problem, which would hand Bernabei the left side, and Maripán has been training with knee protection, with Juninho the alternative. Corinthians tested a 4-4-2 on Monday with Gabriel Paulista and Yuri Alberto in the side, but Yuri has not played since late July. Hugo Souza, Matheuzinho and Breno Bidon only rejoined the squad on Tuesday after Brazil duty, and Carrillo misses out because he is still with Peru.
Internacional Team News & Preview
Inter were not Baptista’s first choice. The club only turned to him after several other candidates said no, and the reaction from supporters to his appointment on 23 September was hostile, largely because both of his Série A spells in 2022 ended in relegation. What he has had is time: Paulo Pezzolano was sacked after the 1-0 defeat at São Paulo, and the break gave his successor two weeks to work with the squad before his first match. The club has also cut ticket prices and opened free sections to fill Beira-Rio.
The problem is that Inter’s home form has been poor all season: three wins, five draws and six defeats from 14 games at Beira-Rio, with 16 goals scored and 16 conceded. They have lost four of their last five in all competitions, and the new back three with Bruno Gomes in an unfamiliar role is untested. What helps them is this particular opponent. Inter beat Corinthians 1-0 away in April and 2-0 at home in the Copa do Brasil in August, and Alan Patrick, who scored in that cup win, remains the player who links midfield to attack. Maripán, Vitinho and Ronaldo are all one booking away from missing Sunday’s Gre-Nal.
What works for or against Inter
- Inter have won two of the three meetings with Corinthians this season, including 2-0 at Beira-Rio in the Copa do Brasil.
- Only three home wins from 14 league games at Beira-Rio this season.
- First game under Eduardo Baptista, with a new back three and Bruno Gomes in an unfamiliar centre-back role.
- No Rochet in goal and no Sanabria up front.
Corinthians Team News & Preview
Six league defeats in a row, and a Libertadores exit to Estudiantes in the middle of it, would usually cost a manager his job. Diniz called it the worst moment of his career, but the squad backed him and the board kept him. The latest defeat summed up the run: Hulk put Fluminense in control in the first half at Neo Química Arena, and although Gustavo Henrique got one back, Corinthians were picked off on the counter and lost 3-1. They have conceded in every game of the losing streak, and four of their last five league matches have gone over 2.5 goals.
The personnel picture is slightly better than it was a month ago. Yuri Alberto, their top scorer this year with eight goals in all competitions, has been training without restrictions after more than two months out, and Gabriel Paulista has also returned. But Yuri’s match fitness is a real question, and three of the expected starters, including goalkeeper Hugo Souza, only rejoined the squad on Tuesday after long-haul trips with Brazil. Away from home Corinthians have three wins from 13 league games this season.
What works for or against Corinthians
- Six straight league defeats, with at least one goal conceded in every game.
- No league win at Beira-Rio since July 2016.
- Yuri Alberto and Gabriel Paulista are back in contention after injury.
- Hugo Souza, Matheuzinho and Breno Bidon only rejoined the squad on Tuesday after Brazil duty.
Internacional vs Corinthians Odds
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Internacional vs. Corinthians Stats Comparison
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Internacional vs. Corinthians Form Guide
Internacional Form, Stats & Data
Inter’s numbers explain why they are in the bottom four: 30 goals in 28 games is one of the weakest returns in the division, and ten draws mean too many games have slipped by without a winner either way. Defensively they are not a disaster, conceding 1.29 per game, and that matters against a Corinthians attack averaging barely a goal a game. Losing Sanabria puts more on Alerrandro and on Alan Patrick’s final ball, so I do not expect a goal-fest from the hosts.
Corinthians Form, Stats & Data
Corinthians‘ season figures look better than their recent form. Over 28 games they concede 1.14 per match, but that average hides the collapse of the past six weeks, in which they have leaked goals in every defeat. Going forward they rely heavily on Memphis Depay’s creativity, with Yuri Alberto’s return the one positive change. On the road they have scored 14 times in 13 league games.
Internacional vs Corinthians: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, the key factor is Corinthians rather than Baptista. They have lost six league games in a row, they have conceded in every one of them, several important players come in after long-haul international trips, and their record at Beira-Rio is one of the most consistent trends in this fixture: no win since 2016, with draws the most common outcome. Inter are far from convincing, but they have already beaten this opponent twice this season.
The strongest argument against the bet is the manager change itself. Baptista is starting with a new system, a reshaped back line and no Rochet or Sanabria, and Inter have only won three home league games all season. That is exactly why I do not want the straight home win. With the draw covered, I am happy to back the hosts. My main bet is Internacional Draw No Bet at 1.56 with MyStake. My correct-score pick is 1-0.