One of Serie A’s tightest defences against its least productive attack
Lazio are joint top of Serie A on 19 points, and the foundation is defensive: four goals conceded in seven games, four clean sheets and a 3-0 win at Juventus last Sunday. Gennaro Gattuso’s side also have no European football, so they have had a full week to prepare. Parma arrive in the opposite situation. Alberto Gilardino’s team have scored four league goals all season, failed to score in four of their seven games and lost 3-0 to Inter and Torino in their last two outings.
„Sappiamo di aver deluso le aspettative.“ – Parma coach Alberto Gilardino after talks with his squad (“We know we have let people down.”)
Predicted lineups: Lazio vs Parma
Lazio are expected to keep the side that won in Turin, with only minimal rotation. Albert Gudmundsson (shoulder), Nicolò Rovella (calf) and Adam Marušić are still unavailable, although none of them has been a regular this season, while Kenneth Taylor has shaken off the knock to his thigh from the Juventus game and Matteo Cancellieri is back in the squad. Gilardino has everyone except Nicolussi Caviglia, Almqvist and Elphege, and he admitted he has selection questions in every position. Sky Sport Italia expects Drobnic to come into the back three and Lontani to start in attack. The line-ups follow Sky’s predictions.
Lazio Team News & Preview
The win at Juventus showed what this Lazio side is about. They were compact, waited for their moments and hit Juventus on the break: Provstgaard headed the opener, Isaksen scored the second and Dele-Bashiru finished a counter-attack late on. After going behind, Juventus created very little.
Lazio are unbeaten in seven league games, with six wins. Only Milan, in a 2-2 draw, have scored more than once against them, and goalkeeper Christos Mandas has the best FotMob rating in the squad. They are not an expansive team, averaging 49% possession and 4.1 shots on target per game, but they rarely give anything away.
What works for or against Lazio
- Four clean sheets in seven league games.
- A full week of rest, with no European football.
- Their expected goals against (1.24 per game) are well above the goals they have actually conceded.
- Play again at Sassuolo on Tuesday.
Parma Team News & Preview
The 3-0 home defeat to Torino was as bad as the score. Giovanni Simeone scored after four minutes, Che Adams added a second before half-time, and Simeone struck again in the second half. Parma looked flat from the start, and supporters made their anger clear afterwards. Gilardino responded this week with what he called an honest and open discussion with the players.
The numbers explain the problem. Parma average 0.6 goals and 3.4 shots on target per game, and their 5.4 expected goals in seven matches are a very low total. David Romero is the top scorer with two. Away from home they have lost at Juventus, Como and Inter, scoring one goal in those three games.
What works for or against Parma
- Four league goals in seven games.
- Failed to score in four of seven league games.
- Two straight 3-0 defeats.
- Scored in three of the last four meetings with Lazio.
Lazio vs Parma Odds
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Lazio vs. Parma Form Guide
Lazio Form, Stats & Data
Lazio’s actual numbers are better than their expected goals at both ends, helped by an in-form goalkeeper. That makes me slightly cautious about their attack, but it strengthens the case for another low-scoring night for the visitors.
Parma Form, Stats & Data
Parma create well under one expected goal per game, and they are not unlucky: their four goals are close to what their chances deserve. That is a weak attack by any measure.
Lazio vs Parma: Prediction & Betting Tip
I expect Parma to draw a blank. They have scored in only three of their seven league games, they are low on confidence after two 3-0 defeats, and they face a defence that has conceded only four league goals and has had a full week to rest while others were in Europe.
The strongest argument against is the recent head-to-head: Parma have scored in three of their last four meetings with Lazio, including a 3-1 win and a 2-2 draw. Lazio’s expected goals against are also higher than their actual tally, so they have been a little fortunate. But Parma’s current attack is far weaker than in those games, and I would rather back them not to score than ask Lazio to win by two.
My bet is Parma under 0.5 team goals at 1.84 with Winz. I expect a 2-0 home win.