A blunt Valencia meet a Villarreal side coming back from Anfield
Valencia are 19th with six points and still have not won a home league game this season. Javier Aguirre, appointed in September after Carlos Corberán’s sacking, has made them harder to beat, with a 2-2 at Racing and a 0-0 against Athletic, but the attack remains the weakest part of the side: six goals in nine games. Villarreal arrive at Mestalla four days after a 4-3 defeat at Liverpool, with a Copa del Rey tie on Tuesday and, according to FutbolFantasy, the possibility that Íñigo Pérez changes half his team.
Predicted lineups: Valencia vs Villarreal
Villarreal are without Nicolas Pépé after eye surgery, and Carlos Romero and Nathan Saliba came back from England with knocks that put them in doubt. The squad only had two training sessions before the derby, according to AS. Valencia have long-term absentees Diego López and Sergi Canós, and Aguirre confirmed on Friday that Copete and Foulquier will not be in the squad, while Umar Sadiq is still „a little below“ the rest of the group. Justin de Haas and Luis Rioja, who both had fitness worries, are in contention to start. The line-ups follow Superdeporte’s predictions.
Valencia Team News & Preview
The goalless draw with Athletic was a step forward defensively. Valencia pressed high early, were the stronger side after half-time and created chances for Danjuma, Gayà, Otorbi and Guerra, while Iñaki Williams hit the post and Tárrega cleared one off the line at the other end. Local reports called it a more solid display under Aguirre that still lacked a finish.
That sums up their season. Valencia average 0.7 goals and only 2.7 shots on target per game, and at Mestalla they have scored twice in five league matches. Their games have mostly been tight: six of nine have finished with fewer than three goals, and they have drawn 0-0 twice at home. They have also gone five derbies without beating Villarreal.
What works for or against Valencia
- More solid under Aguirre: a clean sheet against Athletic.
- A full week of rest before the derby.
- No home league win this season.
- Only six league goals in nine games.
Villarreal Team News & Preview
Villarreal took the lead at Anfield on Tuesday and Sergi Cardona scored their second, but Liverpool came back to win 4-3. Before that, they had dominated Elche at home and still drew 0-0, with a penalty overturned by VAR. In LaLiga they sit 12th with nine points, and they have won only one of their five away league games.
The underlying numbers are good: 19.5 expected goals in nine league games, 60% possession and more than six shots on target per game. The finishing has not matched that, with 13 goals, and this weekend they face heavy rotation, a short recovery and the loss of Pépé.
What works for or against Villarreal
- 19.5 expected goals in nine league games.
- Unbeaten in five derbies against Valencia.
- Four days after a draining night at Anfield.
- One win in five LaLiga away games.
Valencia vs Villarreal Odds
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Valencia vs. Villarreal Stats Comparison
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Valencia vs. Villarreal Form Guide
Valencia Form, Stats & Data
No Valencia player has scored more than once in the league, and 2.7 shots on target per game is a very low number. Their best-rated player is a holding midfielder, which tells you this is a team built to stay in games rather than to win them.
Villarreal Form, Stats & Data
Villarreal create more than two expected goals per game but score fewer than one and a half. That gap between chances and goals is one of the main reasons I expect a tighter game than their profile suggests.
Valencia vs Villarreal: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am backing a low-scoring derby. Valencia barely create, their home games have produced two goals in total from their side, and Aguirre has clearly prioritised defensive organisation. Villarreal are dangerous on paper, but they are coming off a draining Champions League night, they face heavy rotation and they have not been clinical in LaLiga. A tired, reshuffled away side against a cautious home team is a good recipe for a tight game.
The strongest argument against is Villarreal’s attack. Their last two Champions League games produced eleven goals, and if Valencia have to chase the game, spaces will open. Barcelona also put five past Valencia at Mestalla. But that was before Aguirre’s arrival, and since then Valencia have conceded only twice in two games.
My bet is Under 2.5 Goals at 2.09 with Winz. I expect a 1-1.