Mainz are perfect on the road and winless at home, Bremen never keep a clean sheet
Mainz’s season makes little sense at first glance. Urs Fischer’s side have won at Hamburg (5-0), Gladbach (4-3) and Schalke (1-0), but at the MEWA ARENA they have drawn 0-0 with Paderborn and lost to Frankfurt and Leverkusen. Bremen’s games are much easier to read: in all six Bundesliga matches, both teams have scored. Daniel Thioune’s side are unbeaten in five, and only last Saturday they came back from two goals down against Paderborn.
Predicted lineups: Mainz vs Bremen
Mainz are expected to name the same side that won at Schalke, with Phillip Tietz and Sheraldo Becker up front. Dominik Kohr is out with a syndesmosis injury and Otto Ruoppi has a knee problem. Goalkeeper Robin Zentner is training again after his hand injury, but kicker expects it to be too early for him, and Silas is among the substitutes. Bremen have a longer list. Niklas Stark will not travel after a gluteal muscle problem forced him to break off training on Tuesday, and Jens Stage (thigh), Felix Agu (calf), Skelly Alvero (calf), Salim Musah (muscle), Moussa N’Diaye (groin) and Keke Topp (cruciate ligament) are all out. Justin Njinmah is only partly back in team training and not yet an option, but Senne Lynen is back in full training after a pelvic problem and could return to the squad. Of all those absentees, only Njinmah has started a league game this season, so the list looks longer than it is: Thioune said it is very likely he names the same XI for the sixth game running. Both teams have DFB-Pokal ties on Tuesday, Mainz at Bochum and Bremen at Dortmund. The line-ups follow kicker’s predictions.
Mainz Team News & Preview
The 1-0 at Schalke was more one-sided than the score suggests. Becker caused problems from the first minute and could have scored twice in the opening exchanges, only for Loris Karius to deny him. Tietz turned in Anthony Caci’s cross after 24 minutes, and Schalke did not manage a shot on target until the 74th minute. It was Mainz’s third away win in three games.
Home form is the puzzle. Mainz have scored only four goals in three home games and conceded seven, including a 4-3 defeat to Leverkusen that showed both sides of this team. Tietz, with five league goals and the best FotMob rating in the squad, is the focal point, and Mainz average six shots on target per game.
What works for or against Mainz
- Three away wins in three league games.
- Tietz has five league goals.
- No home league win: one draw, two defeats.
- Seven goals conceded in three home games.
Bremen Team News & Preview
Bremen should have beaten Paderborn last Saturday. They dominated large parts of the game, missed several clear chances and still went in 2-0 down after two mistakes were punished. Niclas Füllkrug pulled one back just before the hour and then levelled from the penalty spot, and Weiser had three late chances to win it. Paderborn keeper Noll was the reason it ended 2-2.
Füllkrug is the story of Bremen’s season. He has six league goals and has scored in each of his last five league games, and Marco Grüll is their best-rated player. The problem is the defence: Bremen have conceded in every league game, including four at Freiburg, and away from home they are still waiting for a win after a defeat and two draws.
What works for or against Bremen
- Unbeaten in five league games.
- Füllkrug has scored in five league games in a row.
- Conceded in all six league games.
- Still without an away league win: a defeat and two draws.
Mainz vs Bremen Odds
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Mainz vs. Bremen Stats Comparison
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Mainz vs. Bremen Form Guide
Mainz Form, Stats & Data
Mainz create more than two expected goals per game, and their scoring matches that exactly. They also give up close to one and a half expected goals, so their games rarely stay closed for long.
Bremen Form, Stats & Data
Two goals scored and two conceded per game, with almost seven shots on target: Bremen play open football, and their expected-goals numbers for and against are almost level. That balance is exactly what makes them a Both Teams to Score side.
Mainz vs Bremen: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am backing goals at both ends. Bremen have scored and conceded in every Bundesliga game this season, Füllkrug is on a five-game scoring run, and Mainz’s home defence has conceded seven goals in three games. Mainz, in turn, have an in-form strike partnership in Tietz and Becker and should find chances against a Bremen back four that lets in two a game.
The strongest argument against is Mainz’s ability to keep clean sheets: they have three in six games, against Paderborn, Hamburg and Schalke. With a cup tie at Dortmund on Tuesday, Thioune may also take Füllkrug off early. But even in those Mainz clean sheets, the opposition was weaker in attack than this Bremen side, and Füllkrug only needs one chance.
My bet is Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.53 with Winz. I expect a 2-2.