Two injury-hit attacks, and Köln have the home record on their side
Both clubs arrive short of forwards. Köln have lost Thijs Dallinga to a cruciate ligament injury, Ragnar Ache is still in rehab and Imad Rondić has a thigh problem, so René Wagner has even looked to the under-21s for options. Schalke’s list is worse: captain Kenan Karaman has a muscle problem, Moussa Sylla is out with a muscle injury, and Edin Džeko is a doubt with a deep head wound from the Mainz game. Schalke have scored four league goals in six games and none at home. Köln, by contrast, are unbeaten in three home league games.
„Ihn müssen wir stoppen.“ – Schalke coach Miron Muslić on Köln’s Said El Mala (“We have to stop him.”)
Predicted lineups: Köln vs Schalke
Köln are also without midfielder Ellyes Skhiri, who has two assists and suffered a syndesmosis tear; Timo Hübers and Rav van den Berg are out too, but neither has played in the league this season. kicker expects Wagner to go back to a more attacking back four after Schmied had to sit out training this week, with Bülter through the middle and El Mala, Moore and Maina behind him. Schalke are without Ron Schallenberg, Emil Højlund after heel surgery, and Maximilian Wöber, who, according to Muslić, may not play again this calendar year, while Dejan Ljubičić is not ready for a squad place. If Džeko is not fit to start, Hwang is the alternative up front. The line-ups follow kicker’s predictions.
Köln Team News & Preview
Köln lost 1-0 in Frankfurt last Friday, but the performance gave Wagner something to work with. In a back three for the first time this season, they had the better chances before the break: Bülter was denied by Frankfurt keeper Atubolu in the opening minute and again when he was left unmarked from a free-kick, Sebulonsen volleyed over and El Mala ran 50 metres before shooting just wide. Frankfurt dominated after half-time, and Ebnoutalib’s goal 13 minutes from time extended Köln’s winless away run to 16 league games.
At home it has been a different story: 3-2 against Hoffenheim, 1-1 with Bremen and 2-1 in the derby against Gladbach. The problem is up front. With Dallinga, Ache and Rondić missing, the goals have to come from El Mala, who has two, and from midfield. Borna Sosa and Linton Maina are Köln’s best-rated players, and both are fit.
What works for or against Köln
- Unbeaten at home: two wins and a draw.
- Created the better first-half chances in Frankfurt.
- Dallinga, Ache and Rondić are all missing.
- Conceded in all three home league games.
Schalke Team News & Preview
Schalke were outplayed in the 1-0 home defeat to Mainz. Sheraldo Becker could have scored twice in the first two minutes, Phillip Tietz put Mainz ahead after 24, and only Loris Karius kept the margin down. Schalke did not register a shot on target until the 74th minute. They have now drawn 0-0 with Bayern and Elversberg and lost to Mainz at home without scoring, and they have not scored a home Bundesliga goal since May 2023.
Away from home they have been more dangerous, winning 3-1 at Union, but they also lost 3-0 at Augsburg and 2-1 at Freiburg. Karius is their best-rated player, which tells the story. Losing Karaman, the captain and one of their league scorers, and Sylla leaves Muslić with very little firepower.
What works for or against Schalke
- Only four league goals in six games.
- Karaman and Sylla are both out.
- Won 3-1 at Union Berlin.
- Only seven league goals conceded.
Köln vs Schalke Odds
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Cologne vs. Schalke Form Guide
Cologne Form, Stats & Data
Köln create a respectable 1.65 expected goals per game and five shots on target, but they have scored only eight times. They also concede plenty of chances, so this is not a side that controls games, it is one that has to make its home advantage count.
Schalke Form, Stats & Data
The gap between Schalke’s 1.95 expected goals against and their actual 1.17 conceded per game is mostly down to Karius. At the other end, 1.1 expected goals and only 0.67 actual goals per game, with goalscorers Karaman and Wöber now injured, is a very thin attack.
Köln vs Schalke: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am siding with Köln, with the draw as insurance. Schalke’s attack was already the weakest part of their team, and now they are without their captain and their main striker, with Džeko a doubt as well. Köln have not lost at home, they created more chances than Frankfurt in the first half last week, and El Mala gives them the kind of individual threat Schalke do not have.
The strongest argument against is that Köln’s own attack is depleted and they concede a lot of chances, more than 1.8 expected goals per game. Schalke also defend in numbers with Karius in outstanding form, and they won 3-1 at Union when given space. That is why I want Draw No Bet rather than the straight win at 2.06: a draw returns the stake, and I expect a tight game.
My bet is 1. FC Köln Draw No Bet at 1.53 with Winz. I am going for a 1-0.