Maresca’s City demand a response against AEK after the PSG defeat
Kick-off is at 21:00 CEST and Willy Delajod is the referee. Enzo Maresca’s side have three points after a 2-0 win at Porto and a 4-2 home defeat to Paris Saint-Germain, but they have won all seven Premier League games. Marko Nikolić’s AEK, the Greek champions, also have three points after beating LASK and losing 3-1 to Shakhtar Donetsk. Manchester City and AEK Athens meet at the Etihad on Tuesday, 20 October 2026, in matchday three of the Champions League league phase.
“It’s a huge game tomorrow… We lost the last one so we need to win games.” – Manchester City manager Enzo Maresca
Predicted lineups: Man City vs AEK Athens
Antoine Semenyo is City’s only long-term absentee, out for around eight weeks with a knee injury. Nico O’Reilly (back) is unlikely to play, and Matheus Nunes and Mateo Kovačić both went off injured against Ipswich but have not been ruled out. Erling Haaland took a knock on his shin in that game; Maresca says he can be available, but he, Rúben Dias and Marc Guéhi are all candidates for a rest, with Phil Foden a possible option through the middle. AEK are without goalkeeper Thomas Strakosha, who has a fractured wrist, so Alberto Brignoli starts. Nikolić’s open question is whether Milán Vitális or Zini partners Luka Jović up front.
Man City Team News & Preview
City’s defeat to PSG was not a case of being outplayed in attack. They had 27 shots, Haaland scored twice and they were three goals down after 32 minutes before fighting back. Over two Champions League games they average 2.5 xG and 9.5 shots on target, and they have kept winning domestically, most recently 3-2 against Ipswich, when Haaland scored twice and had a third ruled out for offside.
Rotation is the main variable. Maresca has said the rest of the squad is more or less okay, and even a changed side with Foden, Rayan Cherki, Jérémy Doku and Enzo Fernández has plenty of quality. Guéhi has warned that AEK will try to hit City on the counter-attack, which is why I prefer a City goals line to backing a clean sheet.
What works for or against Man City
- Seven wins from seven in the Premier League.
- 9.5 shots on target per Champions League game.
- Haaland, Dias and Guéhi could all be rested.
- Conceded four at home to PSG last time out in Europe.
AEK Athens Team News & Preview
AEK are no pushovers. Against Shakhtar in London they had 13 shots to Shakhtar’s 12 and almost identical xG, hit the woodwork and were down to ten men when they conceded late; Nikolić called the result very unfair and blamed two refereeing decisions. They are unbeaten in six domestic league games and arrive well rested after their weekend game against Atromitos was postponed.
The away record is the problem. AEK have won only three of their last ten European away games and have never won away in the Champions League. Nikolić has said they will not change their style, and losing Strakosha means Brignoli is in goal against the most productive attack they have faced.
What works for or against AEK Athens
- Matched Shakhtar on xG and shots despite the 3-1 defeat.
- Fully rested after a postponed league game.
- Never won away in the Champions League.
- First-choice goalkeeper Thomas Strakosha is out.
Man City vs AEK Athens Odds
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Man City vs. AEK Athens Stats Comparison
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Man City vs. AEK Athens Form Guide
Man City Form, Stats & Data
City’s two goals per game in Europe undersell an attack producing 2.5 xG and nearly ten shots on target per match. The PSG game was an outlier at the back as well: across both games City have allowed only 1.05 xG per match. Against a weaker opponent at home, the volume of shots is the number that matters most for this bet.
AEK Athens Form, Stats & Data
AEK’s numbers are better than many would expect: 1.05 xG against per game and a team rating above City’s in this small sample. But they came against LASK and Shakhtar, not a side with City’s firepower, and with a back-up goalkeeper. I expect them to defend deep for long spells, which tends to invite exactly the kind of shot volume City generate.
Man City vs AEK Athens: Prediction & Betting Tip
City to win at 1.12 is too short, so I am looking at their goals. City have won every league game, average nearly ten shots on target per Champions League game, and face a side that has never won away in this competition and is without its first-choice goalkeeper. I like Man City over 2.5 team goals at 1.50.
The obvious danger is rotation. If Haaland, Dias and Guéhi all sit out, City could lose some sharpness, and AEK’s defensive numbers in Europe have been solid. That is why the stake is 3/10. But City have scored at least three in four of their last five matches in all competitions, and I expect their depth to tell. My main bet is Man City over 2.5 team goals at 1.50 with Winz. My correct-score pick is 3-0.