Grenoble have stopped scoring, and Pau are winning games they could easily have drawn
Grenoble have gone two games without a goal, losing 2-0 at Montpellier and then 2-0 at home to Boulogne, a defeat Olivier Frapolli refused to accept. Pau come into the game on the back of three straight wins, the latest a 2-1 at Guingamp that took them up to sixth. Thierry Debès‘ side are not spectacular, but they keep finding a way, and Grenoble’s attack offers very little to worry about at the moment.
“Défaillance mentale.” – Grenoble coach Olivier Frapolli on the 2-0 home defeat to Boulogne (“A mental failure.”)
Predicted lineups: Pau vs Grenoble
No new injury problems have been reported for Pau, who are likely to stick with the side that won in Brittany. Grenoble say the knocks from the Boulogne game have cleared, but Lallias, N’Gatta and Allégret remain long-term absentees and winger Ze Leite is only just returning to training. These line-ups are my best estimate.
Pau Team News & Preview
Pau’s winning run started with a 2-0 home win over Dunkerque, continued with a 3-2 against Laval and was extended in Guingamp. There, Cheikh Fall headed in from a corner after six minutes and Bilal Brahimi volleyed the second following a quickly taken free kick, before Pau held on after Averlant’s 75th-minute goal.
It is a pragmatic side. Pau average only 46.8% possession, but they have conceded only nine goals in nine games, and centre-back Anthony Briançon has been their best performer. Babacar Leye, with four league goals, is the main threat up front.
What works for or against Pau
- Three league wins in a row.
- Nine goals conceded in nine games.
- Leye has four league goals.
- Only 1.2 goals scored per game.
Grenoble Team News & Preview
Frapolli described the defeat to Boulogne as a mental failure, and said the squad’s balance is fragile. Grenoble conceded twice in the last 12 minutes of that game, after already losing 2-0 at Montpellier, and they are now 15th with eight points.
The attacking numbers are the real concern. Grenoble average 0.80 xG and only 2.1 shots on target per game, the kind of output that rarely wins away matches. They did win 1-0 at Rodez earlier in the season, but with eight goals in nine games, nobody in their squad has more than two league goals.
What works for or against Grenoble
- No goals in their last two league games.
- 0.80 xG and 2.1 shots on target per game.
- Three long-term absentees, including Lallias.
- Have already won away at Rodez this season.
Pau vs Grenoble Odds
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Pau vs. Grenoble Stats Comparison
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Pau vs. Grenoble Form Guide
Pau Form, Stats & Data
Pau create 1.58 xG per game but have scored only 1.22 goals, so their attack has underperformed its chances. Defensively the numbers back up the results.
Grenoble Form, Stats & Data
Grenoble have the profile of a side under constant pressure: 41% possession, 1.42 xG against per game and very little at the other end. Even their goals return slightly flatters their chance creation.
Pau vs Grenoble: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am backing Pau to win. They are the in-form side, they defend well, and they face an opponent that has not scored in two games and creates fewer than one expected goal per match. Pau’s own chance creation is better than their scoring suggests, which makes me think they can find a way through.
The argument against is that Pau do not blow teams away. Their wins have been narrow, and a stubborn, deep-lying Grenoble side could drag this into a 0-0 or 1-1. That is the main reason I am keeping the stake moderate, but I would still rather be with the home side than against them.
I am taking Pau to win at 1.77 with Winz, and 1-0 is my score.