Three defeats in a row, but Red Star’s numbers say they are better than that
Pre-match update (19:10 CET): Red Star’s official squad list rules out centre-back Elyaz Zidane through injury, along with Pierre Lemonnier, Josué Escartin and Mahamadou Diawara, although Dylan Durivaux is back from suspension to fill the gap. Losing a first-choice centre-back adds weight to the defensive worries behind three straight defeats, so I am sticking with Red Star Draw No Bet at 1.83 but cutting the stake from 3/10 to 2/10. Dijon have Quentin Bernard back in the squad. Official line-ups were not out at the time of writing, and the odds quoted are from 5 November, so prices may have moved since.
Red Star travel to Dijon after losing three straight league games, the last a 4-1 home defeat by Nancy that left Damien Perrinelle complaining that his side give away far too much. On the road, though, this has been one of the best teams in Ligue 2: four wins in six away games, including at Nantes, Laval, Guingamp and Clermont. Dijon have won at Grenoble since losing twice, but at the Gaston-Gérard they have lost more than they have won.
„We give away far, far too much.“ – Damien Perrinelle after the 4-1 defeat by Nancy (via antichambre.eu, translated from French)
Predicted lineups: Dijon vs Red Star
Red Star’s squad list confirms Elyaz Zidane, Pierre Lemonnier, Josué Escartin and Mahamadou Diawara are out injured, and Guillaume Trani has been left out. Dylan Durivaux returns from suspension and is the natural replacement for Zidane at centre-back. Dijon are without Ben-Chayeel Hamada, César Obongo, Tom Meynadier and Michaël Barreto, while Quentin Bernard is back in the squad. Otherwise I have used the last starting line-ups. Baptiste Ridira’s Dijon play a 4-1-3-2 built around Julio Tavarès up front; Ilan Marie-Rose, Alexis Ntamack, Ylan Aka and Axel Bargain sat out the win at Grenoble without an explanation. Red Star should stay with the 4-2-3-1 that has Damien Durand, their top scorer, behind Godson Kyeremeh.
Dijon Team News & Preview
The 3-1 win at Grenoble stopped a two-game losing run, but Ridira was not satisfied: he said his team dropped back and lost control after the break, and goalkeeper Paul Delecroix had to make seven saves against the bottom side. It was a fair reflection of Dijon’s season, which is full of goals at both ends: 20 scored, 19 conceded, and an expected-goals-against figure of almost two per game.
At home that defensive weakness is sharper. Pau, Saint-Étienne and Rodez have all won here, and opponents have averaged 2.25 expected goals in Dijon. Tavarès is the main threat with five goals, and the hosts do create chances, but they also leave plenty of space behind.
What works for or against Dijon
- Tavarès has five league goals and Dijon average 1.86 expected goals.
- Three home defeats in five and 2.25 expected goals conceded per home game.
- Grenoble had 21 shots against them last week despite the 3-1 scoreline.
Red Star Team News & Preview
The Nancy defeat looks heavy, but Red Star had 61 per cent of the ball and 1.70 expected goals in it; a penalty just before half-time and Nancy’s counters did the damage. The two defeats before that were by a single goal. Over the whole season Red Star have produced almost 20 expected goals and scored only 14, while their defence allows 1.19 expected goals per game.
Away from home the results have matched the underlying numbers. Wins at Nantes, Laval, Guingamp and Clermont and a draw at Boulogne add up to 13 points from six trips, and Durand, with five goals, has been their most dangerous player. The worry is at the back: Elyaz Zidane has joined Pierre Lemonnier on the injury list, so Bradley Danger is likely to be partnered by Dylan Durivaux, who returns from suspension.
What works for or against Red Star
- Four away wins from six and only one away defeat.
- An expected-goal difference of plus 0.60 per game across 11 league matches.
- Three straight league defeats, and centre-back Elyaz Zidane is now injured.
Dijon vs Red Star Odds
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Dijon Form, Stats & Data
Dijon’s 1.98 expected goals against per game is the main reason I am not interested in the home side. They attack well enough to make any game open, but that suits a Red Star team that has been efficient on the road.
Red Star Form, Stats & Data
Red Star have scored 1.27 goals per game against 1.79 expected goals, and conceded more than their chances allowed suggests. Both gaps point in the same direction: the team is better than the last three results. Over 11 games that is a big enough sample to take seriously.
Dijon vs Red Star: Prediction & Betting Tip
Three defeats in a row is not nothing, and Perrinelle’s own verdict after Nancy was harsh. If that run has hit confidence, Dijon at home are capable of punishing it, as they did against Metz and Laval.
But Red Star’s away form and their underlying numbers both point the other way, and Dijon’s home defence has been leaky all season. I expect the visitors to create the better chances, so I am backing Red Star Draw No Bet at 1.83 with MyStake, with the draw as my safety net. Given the recent run and Zidane’s injury at centre-back, I have cut the stake to 2/10, and I am leaning towards a 2-1 away win.