A Portugal side that scored four without Ronaldo meets a Norway team that is running on empty
Portugal host Norway at the Estádio do Dragão in Porto on Sunday, 4 October 2026, on matchday four of UEFA Nations League A, Group 4, with kick-off at 20:45 CEST. Portugal have nine points from three games and have effectively settled first place; Norway, Denmark and Wales are all on three, which makes this a game Norway cannot afford to lose if they want to stay clear of the play-off and relegation places. The week in the Portuguese camp has been dominated by Cristiano Ronaldo’s departure, and the response on the pitch was the most complete performance of Jorge Jesus’s short tenure. Norway arrive from a defeat in Cardiff that Martin Ødegaard called „our first punch in the face in a long time“, without their suspended centre-back and with a new goalkeeper.
„Para mim, este jogo que vem a seguir, no Dragão, é onde tenho de estar focado“ – Jorge Jesus after the win in Copenhagen: the next game, at the Dragão, is where he has to be focused.
Predicted lineups: Portugal vs Norway
No Portuguese outlet had published an expected eleven by Friday, so the side below follows Jesus’s pattern this window: he has rotated around four players per game, alternating the Palhinha–João Neves pair with Rúben Neves, Vitinha and Bruno Fernandes, and he said in Copenhagen that Félix was held back specifically to be fit for Norway. Diogo Costa, Cancelo, Rúben Dias, Renato Veiga and Nuno Mendes have started all three games, as has Gonçalo Ramos. Francisco Conceição missed Denmark with a muscle problem and is doubtful. Norway’s eleven is forced in three places: Selvik starts in goal by Solbakken’s own announcement, Heggem is suspended after his straight red card, and Ryerson’s rib injury flared up again in Cardiff, so Leo Østigård and Marcus Pedersen are the likeliest replacements. Ødegaard played the full 90 in Cardiff on the ankle that Bernardo Silva kicked in Oslo and assisted the opening goal.
Portugal Team News & Preview
The story of the week is the one Jesus refuses to discuss. On Wednesday, at the pre-match press conference in Copenhagen, he said Ronaldo would train that day because it was „the fourth day“, added that „no player of any national team refuses to train unless he wants to leave“, and told the room that in the team „mando eu“ – I am in charge. Within hours Ronaldo had posted that, after a conversation with the federation president, he had decided to leave the camp and would tell the Portuguese „the truth“ in due course. The FPF confirmed the squad was now 24. Jesus’s answer on Thursday was to call it „um assunto encerrado“, a closed matter, and to say that the Dragão is where his focus lies.
What followed in Parken was Portugal’s best display under him. Cancelo opened the scoring on 13 minutes, Ramos restored the lead on 25 after Damsgaard’s equaliser, Vitinha headed his first international goal on 67 and Félix, on as a substitute, scored the fourth on 87. Portugal had 19 shots to 12 and ten on target to three, and the expected-goals count of 2.74 to 0.67 was no less one-sided than the score. Bruno Fernandes, back from injury, provided two assists behind Ramos, who hit the post before assisting the first goal and scoring the second. The two Danish goals are the caveat: Damsgaard struck from range and Højlund beat Rúben Dias on a counter, and Dias was marked down for both. Portugal have now won all three games, but they have kept only one clean sheet, in Lisbon against Wales.
What works for or against Portugal
- Three wins from three, a 4-2 in Copenhagen with 19 shots and 2.74 expected goals, and Félix, Ramos and Cancelo all scoring in the window.
- Portugal beat Norway 2-1 in Oslo a week ago and ended a 14-match Norwegian home unbeaten run; they have won the last three meetings.
- Two goals conceded from 0.67 expected goals in Denmark, Dias beaten on a counter, and six yellow cards in Oslo – the transition defending is not watertight.
- Ronaldo's walkout dominates the week; Jesus says the group is united, and the performance in Parken backed him up.
Norway Team News & Preview
Cardiff was a bad night in several ways. Norway led through Oscar Bobb on 11 minutes after a one-two with Ødegaard, lost Ryerson to his rib injury after a quarter of an hour, conceded to Dan James on 38, and then saw Heggem pull down James as the last man 15 seconds into the second half. Neco Williams scored the resulting free-kick past Nyland, and Norway, with ten men, could not find a way back. Solbakken’s verdict was that his side were „jålete“, too fancy, in the first half; Sander Berge said Norway were „giving away ridiculous goals and a red card“, and VG’s commentary ran under the headline „worst in two years“. Haaland had two shots in 90 minutes and was described by Norwegian pundits as exhausted.
The practical consequences for Porto are serious. Heggem is suspended, Ryerson’s rib problem is a third flare-up in a week and he must be considered doubtful, and Solbakken has confirmed that Selvik, with no competitive start in this window, replaces Nyland after a run of errors. Norway have conceded in eleven consecutive matches and have now lost two in a row for the first time in four years. The counter-argument is the attack: Haaland has scored three in the window and has scored in 16 of his last 17 competitive internationals, Bobb has two goals, and Ødegaard is fit. Norway were also the better side for spells in Oslo before Nyland’s pass gifted Ramos the winner. But a reshuffled back four behind a new goalkeeper, on a fourth game in eleven days, against the team that has just scored four away from home, is not a combination I want to back.
What works for or against Norway
- Heggem suspended, Ryerson doubtful with his rib injury, and Selvik replacing Nyland – three forced changes in the defensive unit.
- Eleven consecutive matches with a goal conceded, back-to-back defeats for the first time since 2022, and a fourth game in eleven days after Oslo, Oslo and Cardiff.
- Haaland has three goals in the window and has scored in 16 of his last 17 competitive internationals; Bobb has two.
- Norway were the better side for long spells against Portugal in Oslo and lost to a goalkeeping error.
Portugal vs Norway Odds
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Portugal Form, Stats & Data
Seven goals scored and three conceded in three games, with the shot counts rising from 22 against Wales to 19 with ten on target in Denmark. Félix has scored in every game, Ramos has two goals plus the assists, and Bruno Fernandes made the midfield work on his return. The thing I weigh most is that Jesus rotated four players for Copenhagen and the side still produced its best football, which tells me the squad is deep enough that Ronaldo’s absence does not change the attacking threat. The defensive side is where the stake is capped: two goals from 0.67 expected goals in Parken means Norway will get something to aim at.
Norway Form, Stats & Data
Five goals scored and six conceded in three games, and the pattern is consistent: Norway score, and then they give something away. Both defeats came from individual errors – Nyland’s pass to Ramos in Oslo, Heggem’s foul and the free-kick in Cardiff – and the response is a new goalkeeper and an enforced change at centre-back. Haaland and Ødegaard remain the reasons Norway can hurt anyone, and the 2-1 win over Brazil at the World Cup is not ancient history. But a side that has conceded in eleven straight games and is fielding its fourth back line of the window is one I expect to concede again in Porto.
Portugal vs Norway: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, the balance of this game is defined by what happened on Thursday. Portugal, without their captain, produced their most convincing performance of the Jesus era, with ten shots on target and four different scorers. Norway lost in Cardiff, lost a centre-back to suspension and a full-back to injury, and have changed their goalkeeper. They are also on their fourth game in eleven days with two away trips in a row, and Portugal have already beaten them once this window. Portugal have scored in every game and Norway have conceded in eleven straight.
The strongest argument against is Haaland. He scored in Oslo, he scored twice in Oslo against Denmark, and he scored twice at this ground for Manchester City last month. Norway were, by Solbakken’s reading, the better side in the first meeting, and Portugal’s defence gave Denmark two goals from very little. A 2-1 or 2-2 is well within range, and the home win could easily come with a goal conceded. That is why the stake is moderate and why both teams scoring is my alternative rather than a clean-sheet market.
My main bet is **Portugal to win at 1.66 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 3-1.