Greece’s exhausted first eleven meets a German squad that has played once
Greece host Germany at the Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki on Sunday, 4 October 2026, on matchday four of UEFA Nations League A, Group 2, with kick-off at 20:45 CEST. Greece top the group with seven points, Germany are third on four, and a German win would draw them level. The reverse fixture a week ago in Augsburg was Greece’s first ever win over Germany, a deflected Kourbelis shot after 75 per cent German possession, and it is the reason Klopp’s project is under more scrutiny than a 2-0 over Serbia would suggest. The two things that have changed since are that Germany’s second squad has had a full week together and one dominant game, while Greece have lost Tzolis and have played every game with the same tired core.
„Στο δεύτερο ημίχρονο δεν μπορέσαμε να ελέγξουμε το παιχνίδι“ – Ivan Jovanović after the 2-2 with the Netherlands: in the second half we could not control the game.
Predicted lineups: Greece vs Germany
Neither camp had an expected eleven in the press by Friday. Germany’s pool is the 25-man second squad minus Schlotterbeck, and Klopp said after Munich that the performance „must now be the baseline“, so the Serbia side – Urbig in goal, Pavlović as the single pivot, Bischof and Wirtz ahead of him – is the natural starting point; Woltemade missed several chances and Burkardt is the alternative up front. Greece’s only forced change is Tzolis: Masouras replaced him after 18 minutes against the Dutch, scored and assisted, and is the obvious like-for-like. Jovanović has rotated two or three positions per game between Vagiannidis and Saliakas, Zafeiris, Androutsos and Kourbelis, and Tetteh, Ioannidis and Kostoulas, so the side below is a projection.
Greece Team News & Preview
For 45 minutes on Thursday, Greece were everything they had been in Augsburg. Ioannidis put them ahead on 23 minutes from a Masouras assist, Masouras added the second in first-half stoppage time, and the first-half expected goals read 0.93 to 0.32 in their favour. Then the Dutch made three changes at the break and the game turned completely: Van Dijk headed in a corner on 59, Reijnders equalised on 89, two more Dutch goals were ruled out for offside, and the second-half shot count was 14 to one. Jovanović’s assessment was honest – „there is great disappointment“, „we could not control the game“ – and he pointed at the lack of training and rest days between matches. Tzolakis, Mavropanos, Retsos, Tsimikas, Karetsas and Pavlidis have started all three games.
The injury is the one Greece could least afford. Tzolis scored the goal that started the comeback in Belgrade, was the main outlet on the break, and felt his hamstring after 13 minutes on Thursday; he has returned to London for scans and every Greek outlet has him out for Sunday. Masouras is a capable replacement, as his goal and assist showed, but the drop in pace on the counter matters against a side that will again have most of the ball. What Greece keep is the structure that beat Germany: a compact 4-2-3-1 that becomes a 5-4-1 without the ball, Tzolakis in outstanding form with five saves in Augsburg, and a sold-out Toumba that Xavi called „terrifying“. Greece have scored in all three games and the players‘ line all week has been „stay humble“.
What works for or against Greece
- Seven points from three games, the first ever win over Germany, and goals in every match from five different scorers.
- A sold-out Toumba and a defensive block that held Germany to five shots on target from 16 attempts in Augsburg and gave the Dutch nothing for 45 minutes.
- Tzolis out, the same six players starting all three games, and a manager who blames fatigue for a second half in which Greece had one shot to 14.
- Aerial and set-piece defending: Van Dijk scored from a corner and two more Dutch goals were only ruled out for offside.
Germany Team News & Preview
Munich was the night Klopp’s second squad made its case. All eleven starters changed from the Augsburg game, five players made their debuts, and Germany produced 32 shots, eight on target and 3.90 expected goals against a Serbia side that did not have an attempt until the 78th minute. Bischof scored the first on 39 after Wirtz hit the post, Wirtz added the second on 61 from a Mittelstädt cut-back, and Klopp said the counter-press „went through the roof“ and that this performance „must now be the baseline“. Serbia were dreadful – that is the obvious qualification – but a midfield of Pavlović, Bischof and Wirtz looked far more fluent than any Kimmich-based combination had in the first two games.
The squad concept is the reason this game looks different from Augsburg. The players who lost to Greece – Kimmich, Tah, Nübel, Adeyemi, Nmecha and the rest – have gone home as planned; the group in Thessaloniki has had a week of training together and one match in the legs, against a Greek core on its fourth game in eleven days. Schlotterbeck is the loss: he turned his ankle in the final session before Serbia and is out for both games, which leaves Anton and Thiaw as the centre-back pairing. The weakness is still finishing. Germany have three goals from three Nations League games despite 16 shots in Augsburg and 32 in Munich, and 20 corners across the two games produced nothing. Against a side that sits as deep as Greece, that is the thing most likely to keep this at 0-0 for a long time.
What works for or against Germany
- A 2-0 win with 32 shots and 3.90 expected goals, Wirtz and Bischof in form, and a squad that has played once this window against a Greek side on its fourth game.
- Germany have won seven of eleven meetings with Greece, and the Greek defence conceded from a corner against the Netherlands and had two more goals against ruled out for offside.
- Three goals from 58 shots in three games, no goal from 20 corners, and a 0-1 in Augsburg with 76 per cent possession – the finishing is the problem.
- Schlotterbeck, Musiala and Havertz are out, and a sold-out Toumba is a different test from a Serbia side that managed one shot.
Greece vs Germany Odds
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Greece Form, Stats & Data
Five goals scored and three conceded in three games, and all five goals from different scorers, which tells you how much of Greece’s threat is collective rather than built around one striker. The Augsburg win came from 24 per cent possession and a deflection, and the Thessaloniki draw came from a first half of real quality and a second half of pure survival. What I take from the window is a team whose plan works brilliantly for as long as the legs hold, and whose legs are now going: the same back four and goalkeeper have played every minute, Tzolis is gone, and the manager himself is talking about tiredness. The crowd and the block will keep this close, but I do not expect Greece to control the game.
Germany Form, Stats & Data
Three goals scored and two conceded in three games, from 58 shots, which is the whole story of Klopp’s start: the structure creates chances and the finishing does not convert them. Munich changed the picture in one respect, because a settled eleven with Wirtz as the eight and Pavlović holding produced the best football of the window, and in another, because this group is fresh. Against Greece the test is patience: Augsburg showed what happens when 16 shots produce five on target and no goal. I expect Germany to create more than Greece and to score at least once; whether that is enough for the win depends on whether Woltemade or Burkardt take the first chance, and that is why the stake is low.
Greece vs Germany: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, the fatigue imbalance is the deciding factor. Greece have asked the same core to play Belgrade, Augsburg and Thessaloniki in eight days and it visibly ran out in the second half against the Netherlands; Germany have a squad that has trained for a week and played one match, and that match was as dominant as a game can be without a hat-trick. Tzolis’s absence removes the main threat on the counter, and the Greek defence has shown it can be beaten in the air from set pieces. Germany should have the ball, the chances and the fresher legs.
The strongest argument against is that all of that was also true in Augsburg, and Greece won. Germany have three goals in three games, Toumba will be full and hostile, Tzolakis has been the best goalkeeper in the group, and a Greek side that scores in every game only needs one counter to repeat the Augsburg script. A 1-1 is entirely plausible and a 1-0 home win cannot be ruled out. That is why the stake is low and why both teams scoring, which also covers a Greek goal, is my alternative.
My main bet is **Germany to win at 1.93 with MyStake**. My correct-score pick is 1-2.