Graham Alexander is still waiting for a first point, and West Brom are in form
Preston appointed Graham Alexander on 28 September to stop the slide after Paul Heckingbottom’s sacking. Three league games later they have no points, one goal and nine conceded: 0-1 at home to Millwall, 4-0 at Birmingham and 4-1 at Wrexham. They are bottom with four points from 11 games, and their only league win came against Blackburn on 5 September. West Brom arrive fifth, on the back of two wins in four days and a comeback from 2-0 down against Blackburn that said plenty about their resilience.
Predicted lineups: Preston vs West Brom
Preston’s defensive list keeps growing. Lewis Gibson pulled out of the Wrexham squad and Alexander has confirmed he will miss this game, while Liam Lindsay is a doubt after hobbling off at the Racecourse with a dead leg and had not trained by midweek. Harry Clarke and Liam Gibbs are out for significant periods, captain Ali McCann is still missing and Caleb Wiley is not expected to be ready. Stanley Mills is available again after suspension. For West Brom, the new blow is Toby Collyer, who injured his hamstring against Blackburn and is out until December; Ousmane Diakité replaced him at The Hawthorns and is the obvious candidate to start. Noah Galves (knee) and Mikey Johnston (ankle) are also missing. These are predicted line-ups.
Preston Team News & Preview
The 4-1 at Wrexham followed a pattern Preston fans have seen too often. Alfie Devine cancelled out Wrexham’s opener to make it 1-1 after 36 minutes, but the visitors fell apart after half-time and conceded three more. The week before, they had been beaten 4-0 at Birmingham. According to Sky Sports, Preston have now gone 26 league games without a clean sheet, equalling a club record.
Deepdale has offered no shelter. Preston have won one of five home league games, scoring four goals in total, and they have lost the last two there 1-0 to Lincoln and Millwall. They average 0.8 goals and just 2.5 shots on target per game, and Alexander has not yet found a shape that protects his back three.
What works for or against Preston
- Bottom with four points and three defeats under Alexander.
- 24 goals conceded in 11 league games.
- Just four goals in five home league games.
- Their expected goals (13.8) are far higher than their actual tally of nine.
West Brom Team News & Preview
James Morrison’s side looked in trouble against Blackburn when Andri Gudjohnsen scored twice in the first 12 minutes. Instead they pulled one back through Stewart, levelled with an Isaac Price penalty and won it through Horn Myhre a minute from time. Blackburn barely threatened after the break. That followed a 2-1 win at Wrexham, and West Brom are now level on points with fourth-placed Birmingham.
Away from home they have been solid if not spectacular: wins at Norwich, Derby and Wrexham, defeats at Middlesbrough and Wolves. Price is their top scorer with four league goals, and goalkeeper Max O’Leary is their best-rated player. Losing Collyer hurts, as he started in the holding role against Blackburn, but Morrison has other options in midfield.
What works for or against West Brom
- Two league wins in a row, including a comeback from 2-0 down.
- Three wins from five league away games.
- Collyer is out until December.
- Conceded twice in 12 minutes against Blackburn.
Preston vs West Brom Odds
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Preston vs. West Brom Stats Comparison
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Preston vs. West Brom Form Guide
Preston Form, Stats & Data
Preston’s underlying numbers are not as bad as the table: 13.8 expected goals for and 15.9 against. The gap between those figures and their actual 9:24 goal difference points to poor finishing at one end and costly individual errors at the other.
West Brom Form, Stats & Data
West Brom keep the ball well and have conceded only 12 goals, although their expected goals against are almost identical to Preston’s. O’Leary has done a lot of work, so this is a good side, not a dominant one.
Preston vs West Brom: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am backing West Brom. Preston have lost nine of 11 league games, they have not kept a clean sheet in 26 league matches and the new manager has not changed the trend: three games, one goal, nine conceded. West Brom have the better players, the better form and a habit of winning on the road.
The strongest counter-argument is in the numbers. Preston’s expected goals tell me they have been unlucky, and West Brom give up almost as many chances as they do. A new manager can also flip a run quickly, and Deepdale will be desperate for something to cheer. But Preston have not shown any sign of that turnaround yet, and I need more than a statistical correction to back them.
My bet is West Brom to win at 1.91 with Winz. I am going for 2-1.