Derby arrive at Bramall Lane with a back line held together by tape
Derby have one league win all season, a 2-0 at Portsmouth on 1 September, and nothing since: seven games, three draws, four defeats. The table is bad enough, 23rd on six points, but the treatment room is worse. Sondre Langås tore a groin muscle at QPR on 14 October and is out for around three months, which means Derby have no fit specialist left-back and, according to The Star, only one senior centre-back available. John Eustace has even brought in Jack Robinson, who has not played since April, on a short-term deal.
„We’re obviously very low on numbers at the moment, defensively, so hopefully he can get as fit as possible quickly.“ – Derby manager John Eustace on Jack Robinson (via The Star)
Predicted lineups: Sheffield United vs Derby
Wilder’s squad is filling up. Hamza Choudhury is back after suspension, right-back Femi Seriki has been passed fit after his knee injury, although Wilder hinted he may not go straight back in, and Patrick Bamford, the club’s top league scorer with four goals, is pushing to start after coming off the bench at Ashton Gate. Jamie Shackleton is still out. Derby’s news got worse this week: captain Lewis Travis hurt his ankle against Stoke and is out until the November international break. Alex Mowatt is touch-and-go after needing stitches in a foot wound, and Robinson has not yet completed a full training session. Max Johnston is back in training. First-choice goalkeeper Jacob Widell Zetterström, Matt Clarke, Eiran Cashin, Craig Forsyth, Charlie Taylor and Langås are all missing. These are predicted line-ups, so treat them as a best estimate.
Sheffield United Team News & Preview
Wilder’s side went to Ashton Gate last weekend and won 1-0 thanks to Tom Arblaster’s strike from the edge of the box after five minutes, then saw the game out without much alarm. It was a useful response to a 3-2 defeat at Portsmouth in midweek. The Blades are 11th on 15 points, four off the play-off places, and their best home display came a fortnight ago in a 3-0 win over Lincoln.
Bramall Lane has not been a fortress, though. Two wins, a draw and two defeats at home, including a 3-1 loss to Norwich and a 1-0 defeat to Wolves, is a modest return. United are not a possession side either, averaging 41% of the ball, which is one reason they rarely blow teams away. If Bamford starts, it matters here: he gives them a focal point that Derby’s patched-up centre-backs will struggle to handle in the air.
What works for or against Sheffield United
- Won 1-0 at Bristol City last Saturday.
- Seriki is fit again and Choudhury returns from suspension.
- Only two wins from five home league games.
- Average just 41% possession, so they rarely control games.
Derby Team News & Preview
The 1-0 home defeat to Stoke summed up Derby’s season. It was scrappy and even, and it was settled by a set piece, Luke Graham heading in a free-kick four minutes after half-time. Derby pushed late and Ozoh had a shot saved near the end, but they still have not won a home league game. Before that they were beaten 4-1 at QPR, the night Langås got injured.
The attack has been as much of a problem as the injuries. Nine goals in 11 games is one of the lowest totals in the division, and Derby have drawn a blank in four of those matches. Sammie Szmodics leads the way with three. Away from home they did win at Portsmouth and draw at Burnley, but they have also lost at Charlton, West Ham and QPR.
What works for or against Derby
- Seven league games without a win.
- No fit specialist left-back and one fit senior centre-back.
- Just nine league goals, and four games without scoring.
- Won at Portsmouth and drew at Burnley away from home.
Sheffield United vs Derby Odds
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Sheffield Utd Form, Stats & Data
Sheffield United have scored more than their chances suggest, 15 goals from roughly 11.5 expected, and they allow almost one and a half expected goals per game. That tells me they are a direct, efficient side rather than a dominant one, which is exactly why the opponent’s weaknesses matter so much in this fixture.
Derby Form, Stats & Data
Derby are giving up more than 1.7 expected goals a game, and that was before Langås became the latest defender to go down. With about one expected goal per match going the other way, they simply do not create enough to cover for those defensive gaps.
Sheffield United vs Derby: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am backing the home side. Derby’s problem is not just form, it is personnel: last week they played two right-backs and a winger across their back four, and now they have lost captain Travis from midfield as well. That is a big ask against a United side whose squad is getting healthier and that showed at Bristol City that it can protect a lead.
The strongest argument against is Sheffield United’s home record. They lost to Norwich and Wolves here, and with so little possession they can let opponents stay in games. Derby also drew at Burnley and won at Portsmouth, so they are not helpless on the road. But their last seven league games have produced no wins and only four goals, and I cannot see where the goals come from against a settled Blades back four.
My bet is Sheffield United to win at 1.76 with Winz. I expect a 2-0.