In-form Santos test a Flamengo side without Arrascaeta
Santos host league leaders Flamengo at Vila Belmiro on Thursday night (19:30 local time, 00:30 CEST on Friday) in round 29 of the Brasileirão. Cuca’s side have won five league games in a row and have taken 20 of the 27 points available in the second half of the season, level with Flamengo for the best return over that period. Leonardo Jardim’s team are three points clear of Palmeiras at the top, but they arrive without their playmaker and with a Libertadores semi-final at Estudiantes a week later.
Santos have won their last four league games 3-2, 2-1, 2-1 and 2-1 – scoring in every one, but never keeping a clean sheet.
Predicted lineups: Santos vs Flamengo
Santos have two new absences in midfield and on the left. Arthur suffered a grade 2 injury to the back of his right thigh in the win at São Paulo and is expected to miss around five weeks, and Everton Cebolinha cannot face Flamengo because of a restriction agreed when he left the Rio club. Luan Peres returns from suspension, which allows Willian Arão to move back into midfield, and Diógenes stays in goal with Gabriel Brazão out for the rest of the season after shoulder surgery. Neymar trained without restrictions on Monday after more than a month out with a thigh injury; whether he starts is Cuca’s decision, so I have him among the substitutes. For Flamengo, Arrascaeta is out for six to eight weeks after wrist surgery, and Varela and Anthony Valencia only return from international duty on Wednesday. Emerson Royal is the expected right-back, Paquetá the most natural replacement in the No. 10 role, and Ayrton Lucas remains a doubt at left-back.
Santos Team News & Preview
Santos were 15th at the halfway point and are now eighth, pushing for a Libertadores place. Gabigol has been central to the turnaround: he headed the equaliser and then scored the winner in Friday’s 2-1 victory at São Paulo, a game Santos struggled to control early on but dominated after the break, with Diógenes making several important saves late on. Philippe Coutinho made his debut off the bench in that match and is now an option to start.
The pattern of the winning run is clear. Santos keep finding goals, but they keep conceding them too: 43 scored and 41 conceded in 28 games, and 20 scored and 18 conceded in 14 home matches. Losing Arthur removes the player who gave the midfield its control, and without Cebolinha the left side will look different. If Neymar is fit enough for a role, even from the bench, Santos have more creativity than at any point in the last five weeks.
What works for or against Santos
- Five straight league wins and 20 points from the last nine games.
- Gabigol scored both goals in the 2-1 win at São Paulo, and Neymar has returned to full training.
- Arthur and Cebolinha are both unavailable, and Brazão is out for the season.
- Santos have conceded 41 goals in 28 league games.
Flamengo Team News & Preview
Flamengo’s last league game was a 2-1 win over Bragantino on 20 September, their fifth straight league victory. They dominated that game, but even then they conceded late. Away from home they have been the best side in the division, with eight wins, three draws and three defeats and 27 goals scored in 14 games.
The international break has cost them. Arrascaeta, the creative heart of the team, broke his left wrist playing for Uruguay and had surgery in Rio. Varela, who scored against Bragantino, and Anthony Valencia are not expected to be involved after late returns. On the positive side, Pedro and Samuel Lino come back from Brazil duty after scoring in the 4-0 win over India, and Plata is back in group training. With a home game against Fluminense on Sunday and the first leg in La Plata next Thursday, there is also a question over how much Jardim rotates.
What works for or against Flamengo
- League leaders with 55 goals scored and only 23 conceded in 28 games.
- Eight wins from 14 away league games, with 27 goals scored on the road.
- Arrascaeta is out for six to eight weeks, and Varela returns too late to play.
- Fluminense on Sunday and Estudiantes in the Libertadores next week make rotation possible.
Santos vs Flamengo Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Half-Time/Full-Time
Santos vs. Flamengo Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Santos vs. Flamengo Form Guide
Santos Form, Stats & Data
Santos‘ goal difference of +2 tells the story of their season: plenty of goals at both ends. Averaging 1.54 scored and 1.46 conceded, they rarely play a tight game, and their home record of six wins, four draws and four defeats has come with 38 goals in 14 matches. Against the best attack in the league, that defensive record is a concern for Cuca; against a Flamengo midfield missing Arrascaeta, Santos‘ own scoring rate should still give them chances.
Flamengo Form, Stats & Data
Flamengo’s numbers are the best in the division on both sides of the ball: nearly two goals per game scored and fewer than one conceded. The concern for this game is not the overall level but the specific absences. Arrascaeta’s passing usually connects Jorginho and Saúl to Pedro, and without him Flamengo may rely more on wide play through Carrascal and Plata and on set pieces, where Pedro scored against Bragantino.
Santos vs Flamengo: Prediction & Betting Tip
I expect goals at both ends. Santos have scored in every game of their winning run and conceded in four of the five, and the last two meetings with Flamengo finished 3-1 and 3-2. Flamengo have the stronger squad and the best away record in the league, so I fully expect them to score at Vila Belmiro, but missing Arrascaeta and Varela takes away some of the control that usually lets them shut games down.
The strongest argument against the bet is Flamengo’s defence: 23 goals conceded in 28 games, and Santos lose Arthur and Cebolinha from their attacking structure. If Flamengo score early and manage the game, Santos could end up chasing it without the tools to break them down. I still believe Santos‘ form, Gabigol’s finishing and the possible return of Neymar give them enough to score. My main bet is Both Teams to Score at 1.69 with MyStake. My correct-score pick is 1-2.