Rested Athletico face a stretched Atlético without Hellmann on the bench
Athletico Paranaense host Atlético Mineiro at the Arena da Baixada on Thursday night (20:00 local time, 01:00 CEST on Friday) in round 29 of the Brasileirão. Athletico are third on 49 points and chasing a Libertadores place; Atlético are seventh on 43, five points off the top four. The two clubs come into the game in very different states: Athletico have not played a league game for 18 days, while Atlético are already in the middle of a run of 11 matches in 35 days.
Odair Hellmann was sent off against Bahia and banned by the STJD, so this is the first game Athletico play without their manager on the touchline. Assistant Fábio Moreno takes his place.
Predicted lineups: Athletico vs Atlético-MG
Athletico lose centre-back Juan Aguirre to a suspension for his third booking, and right wing-back Gastón Benavídez is out until November with a calf injury. The big question is Kevin Viveros: the league’s top scorer with 18 goals plays for Colombia against Peru in Miami on Tuesday and is only due back in Curitiba on Wednesday evening, so the staff will assess his fatigue before deciding whether he starts. The lineup below is based on the side that beat Bahia, when Viveros was suspended, with Terán in for Aguirre. Arthur Dias is back from his first Brazil call-up and trained normally. For Atlético, Kevin Castaño only lands in Curitiba on the morning of the match, Cassierra is likely out with thigh pain, and local reports differ on whether the Ecuador trio of Alan Franco, Preciado and Alan Minda will be available. O Tempo expects Eduardo Domínguez to rest some regulars ahead of the Sul-Americana.
Athletico Team News & Preview
Athletico’s results have held up, but their defence has not. Their last five league games were a 3-2 win at Botafogo, a 3-3 draw with Fluminense, a 3-1 defeat at Cruzeiro, a 3-3 draw at Coritiba and a 2-1 win over Bahia, with goals at both ends every time. Hellmann has named defending set pieces as his biggest concern, and the numbers back him up: Athletico are among the most dangerous teams from dead balls in attack, but also among the most vulnerable. The win over Bahia was close, with Mycael saving a stoppage-time penalty.
Hellmann was sent off for protesting in that game and was then handed a four-match ban by the STJD on top of the automatic suspension. The club has appealed, but with no decision announced, Fábio Moreno will be on the bench here and at Chapecoense. Viveros is the other uncertainty: he has 18 league goals in 26 games, and if he is held back, Mendoza, Vargas and Leozinho have to carry the attack. Athletico do have freshness on their side after the long break, apart from their internationals.
What works for or against Athletico
- Third in the table and rested after 18 days without a league game.
- 12 goals conceded in the last five league games, with set pieces a recurring problem.
- Manager Odair Hellmann is banned, and centre-back Juan Aguirre is suspended.
- Kevin Viveros, the league's top scorer with 18 goals, returns from Colombia duty only the evening before the match.
Atlético-MG Team News & Preview
Atlético’s 1-0 win over Bragantino on Saturday was their first game after the break, a rescheduled fixture from round 21. Bernard scored early from Gabriel Delfim’s long ball, and after that Domínguez’s side sat in a low block and relied on Delfim in the second half. The manager admitted afterwards that his team suffered a lot after the interval. Bernard has also warned about the load of seven games in a month.
The schedule is the main issue. Atlético play Santos at home on Sunday and Montevideo City Torque in the first leg of the Sul-Americana semi-final on 14 October, and O Tempo reports that Vitor Hugo, Castaño, Alan Franco and Cuello are among the players most likely to be rested. Vitor Hugo also took a knock to the head on Saturday, with local outlets disagreeing on whether he is fit. At home Atlético have lost only once in the league all season, but their away record is much weaker: four wins, two draws and eight defeats.
What works for or against Atlético-MG
- Only four wins from 14 away league games this season.
- Sul-Americana semi-final on 14 October and likely rotation, with Castaño arriving on the morning of the game.
- Beat Athletico 2-1 in the first meeting in April.
- Gabriel Delfim and Bernard decided the 1-0 win over Bragantino.
Athletico vs Atlético-MG Odds
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Athletico PR vs. Atlético Mineiro Stats Comparison
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Athletico PR Form, Stats & Data
Athletico score at a good rate for a side in the top three, and Viveros is responsible for a large share of those 43 goals. The season average of 1.14 conceded hides a recent slide: 12 of their 32 league goals against have come in the last five games. With Aguirre suspended, the back five has to be rearranged again, which is why I expect Atlético to get chances, especially from set pieces.
Atlético Mineiro Form, Stats & Data
On paper the two squads are worth almost exactly the same, but Atlético’s strength this season has been at home, where they have lost only once. The away figures are the concern for this fixture, and the rotation needed to get through the Sul-Americana makes it harder to expect their best side. Against Bragantino they were happy to concede possession and defend deep, and I expect a similar approach in Curitiba.
Athletico vs Atlético-MG: Prediction & Betting Tip
The schedule is the decisive factor for me. Athletico are fresh after 18 days without a league game and playing at home, while Atlético have a poor away record, have just played on Saturday and have a continental semi-final next week, with their own local press expecting rotation. Even before Castaño’s late arrival and Cassierra’s injury, four wins from 14 away games is not the profile of a side I want to back on the road.
The strongest counter-argument is Athletico’s own situation. Hellmann is banned, Aguirre is suspended, Viveros may not start, and the defence has conceded 12 goals in five games. Atlético also won the first meeting in April. That is why I want the draw covered rather than the straight home win. My main bet is Athletico Paranaense Draw No Bet at 1.49 with MyStake. My correct-score pick is 2-1.