Klopp still waiting for a convincing win – can a depleted Serbia keep it close?
Germany travel to Belgrade with five points from four games and one win from Jürgen Klopp’s first four matches in charge. Anything other than a victory leaves them relying on others in the race for the top two. Serbia are bottom without a point, but they have only been beaten narrowly, and they now face Germany in an almost empty Rajko Mitić Stadium: UEFA closed the usual stands after racist and discriminatory behaviour by home fans, with only organised groups of children under 14 allowed in.
„I wouldn’t use harsh words and say that anyone is avoiding the national team. We have a very healthy group.“ – Veljko Paunović at Thursday’s press conference (via B92, translated from Serbian)
Predicted lineups: Serbia vs Germany
Serbia’s XI is the one projected by Max-Sport and Novosti on Friday morning: a 4-2-3-1 with Luka Jović up front and Dušan Tadić behind him. Stefan Bukinac and Petar Sukačev are competing for the left-back spot. Germany’s line-up is the one predicted by ran and fussballdaten.de. Klopp said on Thursday evening that he already knew his starting XI as long as nobody fell ill, and the only open question appears to be Lennart Karl or Brajan Gruda on the right.
Serbia Team News & Preview
Four games, four defeats: 1-2 at home to Greece, 1-2 at home to the Netherlands, 0-2 in Munich and 1-2 in Eindhoven. The pattern is clear – Serbia have not been good enough, but they have not been blown away either. The 2-0 in Munich was the most one-sided of the four. Germany had 32 shots and Serbia managed one, which is the strongest warning against this bet.
The squad is thinner than in October. According to Mondo, Dušan Vlahović, Aleksa Terzić, Filip Kostić, Aleksandar Stanković, Nemanja Maksimović and Saša Lukić are all unavailable through injury or suspension, with Stanković nursing an adductor problem. That leaves Sergej Milinković-Savić and Stefan Džodić as the likely midfield pair. Paunović said the European Championship qualifiers are the priority, but that Serbia are not giving up on the Nations League, because third place still means a relegation play-off rather than going straight down.
What works for or against Serbia
- All four defeats came by one or two goals.
- Six regulars are missing, including Vlahović and Kostić.
- Germany had 32 shots to Serbia's one in Munich.
- Third place is still within reach, so there is something to play for.
Germany Team News & Preview
Germany’s group results tell the story of a side that controls games without killing them: 1-1 in Amsterdam, 0-1 at home to Greece, 2-0 against Serbia and 0-0 in Greece. That is three goals in four matches. Klopp has used plenty of young players, but this time he is expected to go with his strongest XI: Marc-André ter Stegen in goal, Joshua Kimmich back in midfield and Kai Havertz through the middle.
Waldemar Anton is out with a muscle injury and David Raum was not called up. Niclas Füllkrug is back in the squad and looks like the option from the bench if Serbia sit deep. Klopp expects a „very lively, intense and aggressive“ Serbian side, and the Netherlands at home on Monday is the second part of a tough week.
What works for or against Germany
- Two clean sheets in the last two group games.
- Only three goals in four group games.
- Kimmich, Wirtz and Havertz are all expected to start.
- One win from Klopp's first four matches.
Serbia vs Germany Odds
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Serbia Form, Stats & Data
Two goals conceded per game is poor, but it is also the ceiling so far: no opponent has scored more than twice against Serbia in this group. With six regulars missing, the main question is whether they can still defend deep for 90 minutes. I think they can keep the margin manageable, but I am not expecting them to threaten much.
Germany Form, Stats & Data
Germany concede little, but 0.75 goals per game is a small return for a side with this much of the ball. They needed 32 shots to beat Serbia 2-0 in Munich. I expect a similar game, with more of the ball and plenty of chances, but I do not see Germany as a side that has been winning by big margins.
Serbia vs Germany: Prediction & Betting Tip
Germany should win, and I am not looking at the Serbian win or the draw. My interest is in the margin. Klopp’s side have scored three goals in four group games, and Serbia have lost every game by one or two goals. The setting helps a tight game too: no home crowd, a Serbian side that will sit deep, and a German team that has needed huge volumes of shots to score.
The strongest argument against is obvious. Serbia are missing six regulars, and in Munich they barely got out of their own half. If Germany score early, a three-goal win is very possible. That is why I want the Asian line rather than the half-goal: a two-goal German win returns the stake. Serbia +2 (Asian Handicap) at 1.70 with Winz is my bet for 4/10, and I expect Germany to win 2-0 or 2-1.