Top spot on the line in Amsterdam – and Oranje are missing their spine
The Netherlands and Greece both have eight points after four games, and whoever comes out on top in Amsterdam takes a big step towards the March quarter-finals. Xavi has a long injury list: captain Virgil van Dijk and striker Brian Brobbey withdrew on Monday, and Ryan Gravenberch, Nathan Aké, Jeremie Frimpong and Jorrel Hato are also missing. Greece are unbeaten under Ivan Jovanović and were the better side for 45 minutes in October’s 2-2 in Thessaloniki, when Xavi publicly took the blame for the way his team started.
Predicted lineups: Netherlands vs Greece
Most Dutch outlets expect the same 4-3-3: Jurriën Timber at right-back, Micky van de Ven moving into the centre next to Jan Paul van Hecke and Ian Maatsen on the left. Frenkie de Jong returns and is expected to captain the side, with Donyell Malen leading the line. For Greece, the line-up is the one projected by Sportal and Protothema: a 4-2-3-1 with Lazaros Rota at right-back. Dimitris Kourbelis trained on his own for most of the week, and a late decision is due on whether he starts.
Netherlands Team News & Preview
Oranje sit top on goals scored after 1-1 at home to Germany, wins in Belgrade and Eindhoven against Serbia and that 2-2 in Greece. Seven goals in four games is respectable, but five conceded is too many for a side with their quality. The concern now is the back line. Van Dijk is the organiser, and without him Xavi has to reshape the defence, with Van de Ven moving inside and Timber switching flanks.
The midfield should be stronger than in October with Frenkie de Jong back next to Joey Veerman and Tijjani Reijnders. Up front, Brobbey’s absence hands Malen the central role, flanked by Crysencio Summerville and Cody Gakpo. Xavi has decided not to call up replacements for Van Dijk and Brobbey, and goes into the game with 23 players.
What works for or against the Netherlands
- Frenkie de Jong, Malen and Maatsen are back.
- Van Dijk, Brobbey, Gravenberch, Aké, Frimpong and Hato are all missing.
- Five goals conceded in four group games.
- Home advantage at the Johan Cruijff ArenA.
Greece Team News & Preview
Greece are the story of this group: 2-1 in Belgrade, 1-0 in Germany, 2-2 against the Netherlands and 0-0 against Germany. That is eight points and only three goals conceded in four games, and only the Dutch have scored more than once against them. Jovanović’s side defend in a compact block and look for Vangelis Pavlidis quickly, with Christos Tzolis and Konstantinos Karetsas providing the pace out wide.
The problems are in midfield. Christos Zafeiris is suspended, and so is right-back Manolis Saliakas after both reached the yellow-card limit. If Kourbelis does not make it, Nektarios Triantis comes in next to Thanasis Androutsos. That is the biggest worry for the bet, because Zafeiris has been a regular in midfield throughout this campaign.
What works for or against Greece
- Unbeaten in the group with three goals conceded.
- Led 2-0 against the Netherlands at half-time in October.
- Zafeiris and Saliakas are both suspended.
- Kourbelis is a doubt after training alone for most of the week.
Netherlands vs Greece Odds
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Netherlands Form, Stats & Data
1.75 goals per game shows the Dutch can create, but 1.25 conceded per game is not the record of a side that wins comfortably. Neither of their two wins against Serbia came by more than one goal. Without Van Dijk, I do not trust this defence to keep Greece quiet for 90 minutes.
Greece Form, Stats & Data
0.75 goals conceded per game is the number that matters for me. Greece have kept two clean sheets and have only conceded twice in a game once – against the Netherlands. The suspensions in midfield are a real issue, but Jovanović’s side are built to make games tight.
Netherlands vs Greece: Prediction & Betting Tip
The Netherlands are favourites at home, but I do not see a big gap between these two sides right now. Oranje have conceded in every group game, they have not won any group game by more than a goal, and they are now without their captain and first-choice striker. Greece have lost none of their four games and did not concede in either match against Germany.
The strongest argument against is Greece’s midfield. Without Zafeiris, and possibly without Kourbelis, they may struggle to cope with De Jong, Veerman and Reijnders on the ball. If the Dutch get control early, a two-goal win is possible. I still want the Asian line rather than Greece Double Chance: a Greek win or a draw pays, and a one-goal home win returns the stake. Greece +1 (Asian Handicap) at 1.89 with Winz is my bet for 3/10, and I expect a 1-1.