Pompey’s injury list meets Southampton’s home goal machine
On Sunday, 11 October 2026, Southampton take on Portsmouth in the south-coast derby at St Mary’s. Tonda Eckert’s side are 13th, but only because of a four-point deduction for the Spygate case, and they would be fourth without it. At St Mary’s they have won all four league games and scored 15 goals. John Mousinho’s Portsmouth are 19th, unbeaten in three, but arrive with a long injury list. Kick-off is at 12pm UK time, with Adam Herczeg the referee.
Southampton have scored 15 goals in four home league games this season.
Predicted lineups: Southampton vs Portsmouth
Southampton have good news on three fronts. Cyle Larin withdrew from Canada’s friendlies with a back problem but has been declared ready, goalkeeper Daniel Peretz will start despite a groin issue, and Caspar Jander is back after missing the start of the season. Tom Fellows could replace Kuryu Matsuki on the wing. Portsmouth are without Connor Ogilvie, Josh Murphy, Benjy Arthur, Márk Kosznovszky, Thomas Waddingham, Luke Brooke-Smith and Franco Umeh-Chibueze. Marko Milovanović (calf) and Conor Shaughnessy (groin) are doubts, and Keshi Anderson is back in training but will not be rushed. Shaughnessy had not returned to full training earlier in the week, so Madiodio Dia and Regan Poole are pencilled in as the centre-back pairing. The rest of the Portsmouth side below is based on the XI that drew with Blackburn.
Southampton Team News & Preview
Southampton have been the Championship’s most dangerous side at home. They beat Stoke 3-1, Millwall 5-1, Swansea 3-1 and Bristol City 4-1, scoring at least three goals every time. They went six league games unbeaten before losing 2-1 at Wrexham in their last game before the break, which is one of only two league defeats this season.
Larin is the main reason for the goals. He has seven league goals, the most in the division, and Finn Azaz adds three goals and four assists from the number ten role. The weakness is at the back: Southampton have not kept a clean sheet in eight league games, which is why I prefer to back their goals rather than a shutout.
What works for or against Southampton
- Southampton have won all four home league games, scoring at least three goals each time.
- Cyle Larin, the Championship's top scorer with seven goals, is fit.
- They have not kept a clean sheet in eight league games.
- A four-point deduction for Spygate leaves them 13th instead of fourth.
Portsmouth Team News & Preview
Portsmouth have steadied after a difficult start. They beat Cardiff 2-0, drew 0-0 at Charlton and drew 2-2 with Blackburn before the break, and away from home they won 3-1 at Lincoln. But the injury list is now a real problem. Shaughnessy was forced off against Blackburn, Ogilvie is out, and Mousinho said a decision on Shaughnessy would only be made on Saturday.
Losing two experienced defenders at once would leave Portsmouth exposed against a forward line that has scored freely at St Mary’s. Up front, Milovanović is fighting a calf problem, so Tyrese Shade and Colby Bishop may have to lead the line again. Portsmouth have conceded ten goals in seven league games.
What works for or against Portsmouth
- Portsmouth are unbeaten in three league games.
- Seven players are out, and Milovanović and Shaughnessy are doubts.
- The last four league meetings between the sides all ended in draws.
- They have conceded ten goals in seven league games.
Southampton vs Portsmouth Odds
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Southampton vs. Portsmouth Stats Comparison
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Southampton vs. Portsmouth Form Guide
Southampton Form, Stats & Data
Southampton’s 2.38 goals per game is one of the best attacking records in the Championship, and it rises to 3.75 at home. They concede 1.25 per game and have no clean sheet yet, so their matches tend to be open. That makes their own scoring the stronger angle than the result or a shutout.
Portsmouth Form, Stats & Data
Portsmouth score 1.29 goals per game and concede 1.43, solid enough numbers for a side in the bottom six. The problem is availability. With so many players missing, and doubts over a key centre-back and striker Milovanović, I expect them to spend long spells defending at St Mary’s.
Southampton vs Portsmouth: Prediction & Betting Tip
The case for Southampton’s goals is strong. They have scored at least three in every home league game, Larin is fit and in form, and Portsmouth may be without two defenders and striker Milovanović. I would rather back the Southampton goals than the result, because derbies can be tight and Southampton have not kept a clean sheet all season.
The one thing that gives me pause is the recent history of this fixture. The last four league meetings were all draws, and derby nerves can stifle even an in-form attack. Portsmouth are also unbeaten in three. But two goals from a side averaging 3.75 at home, against a weakened defence, is a target I am comfortable with.
My main bet is Southampton over 1.5 team goals at 1.57 with Winz. My correct-score pick is 3-1 to Southampton.