St Mirren’s slide meets a Dundee side that has just held Rangers
Five league games, five defeats, two goals scored and 14 conceded: St Mirren’s autumn has gone badly wrong. Craig McLeish’s side were beaten by Celtic and Rangers, then lost 3-0 at home to Dundee United, 5-0 at Hearts and 3-1 at Aberdeen. Dundee arrive in Paisley in fourth place after a 2-2 draw with Rangers in which they were the better side for the whole first half. Steven Pressley’s team are unbeaten in three and have won two of their last four away games.
„I feel like we beat ourselves today.“ – St Mirren manager Craig McLeish after the 3-1 defeat at Aberdeen (via Sky Sports)
Predicted lineups: St Mirren vs Dundee
St Mirren are still without Keanu Baccus, Jonah Ayunga and Malik Dijksteel, none of whom has played in the league this season, while Nikolas Agrafiotis, who started their first four games, could return after six weeks out. Dundee’s absentees Bobby Wales, Finlay Robertson and Simon Murray have mostly been squad players. Joe Westley, joint top scorer with three league goals, has an ankle problem: Sports Mole lists him as out, while Pressley has not ruled out a return, so his availability is uncertain. The line-ups below follow Sports Mole’s predicted XIs.
St Mirren Team News & Preview
The defeat at Pittodrie was another game that got away from St Mirren after the break. Brad Lyons gave Aberdeen an early lead, Eseosa Sule equalised from Killian Phillips‘ cut-back and St Mirren were the better side before half-time. Aberdeen then changed shape and took over, with Kevin Nisbet scoring a penalty rebound after Jacob Chapman’s save and Ayoub Mouloua adding a third.
The early-season form, which included wins at Falkirk and Kilmarnock, has disappeared. At home St Mirren have won only one of four league games, against St Johnstone, and they are conceding almost two goals a game. Phillips, with three goals and the best FotMob rating in the squad, carries most of the attacking load.
What works for or against St Mirren
- Five league defeats in a row.
- Two goals scored and 14 conceded in that run.
- Only one home league win this season.
- They have lost only one of their last seven home meetings with Dundee, according to Sports Mole.
Dundee Team News & Preview
Dundee’s 2-2 with Rangers was a statement. They dominated the first half with a 4-4-2, and Bradley Fink put them ahead by rounding the goalkeeper after Rangers misjudged a long ball. Rangers turned it round through Bouanani and Raskin, but Callum Jones dispossessed Dan Neil and levelled with 21 minutes left. Before that, Dundee won 2-1 at Falkirk and 2-1 at home to Motherwell.
They are not a possession team, averaging just 38% of the ball, and they have not kept a clean sheet in six league games. But they are direct and dangerous: two away wins, at Dundee United and Falkirk, and 13 league goals. Ryan Astley has been their best-rated player at the back.
What works for or against Dundee
- Unbeaten in three league games, including the draw with Rangers.
- Won at Dundee United and Falkirk.
- No clean sheet in six league games.
- Westley, their joint top scorer, is a doubt.
St Mirren vs Dundee Odds
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St. Mirren vs. FC Dundee Stats Comparison
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St. Mirren vs. FC Dundee Form Guide
St. Mirren Form, Stats & Data
St Mirren allow more than two expected goals per game, the clearest sign that this run of defeats is not just bad luck. Their own chance creation is better than their goal tally, but they are finishing poorly.
FC Dundee Form, Stats & Data
Dundee do more with less: just 38% possession, but more goals and more shots on target than St Mirren. They concede chances, yet their actual goals against are well below their expected figure.
St Mirren vs Dundee: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am siding with Dundee, with the draw as a safety net. St Mirren have lost five in a row, they are conceding chances at a worrying rate and their only home league win came back in August. Dundee are in form, they are comfortable playing away from home and they showed against Rangers that they can hurt good teams on the break.
The strongest argument against is the head-to-head at this ground. St Mirren have lost only one of their last seven home meetings with Dundee, and Dundee keep conceding. Westley’s fitness and the weather in the west of Scotland add uncertainty, which is exactly why I prefer Draw No Bet to the straight away win at 2.82.
My bet is Dundee Draw No Bet at 2.07 with Winz. I am going for a 2-1 away win.