Gladbach are one defeat from an unwanted record, and Stuttgart need the points just as badly
Six games, six defeats, 20 goals conceded: no Bundesliga side has ever lost its first seven matches, and that is the record Gladbach are staring at in Stuttgart. Alexander Blessin, the club’s third coach of the season, called the 2-1 home defeat to Hoffenheim „frightened football“. Stuttgart are not in great shape domestically either, 13th with six points, but on Tuesday they outplayed Atlético Madrid for long spells in a 1-1 draw.
„Das ist Angsthasenfußball.“ – Gladbach coach Alexander Blessin after the 2-1 defeat to Hoffenheim (“That is frightened football.”)
Predicted lineups: Stuttgart vs Gladbach
Josha Vagnoman picked up a thigh strain against Atlético and will miss three to four weeks, so Jeanuël Assignon should start at right-back. Sebastian Hoeneß is expected to rotate again three days after the Champions League game; Atakan Karazor may come in for Angelo Stiller. Gladbach’s injury list is long: Tim Kleindienst has suffered another muscle tear, and Franck Honorat, Ko Itakura, Jens Castrop, Fritz Fleck, Enzo Leopold and Jan Leszczyński are also missing. Isac Lidberg is a doubt with a thigh problem, while Nicolas-Gerrit Kühn is close to a return from the bench.
Stuttgart Team News & Preview
The Champions League has been the bright spot for Stuttgart. They have seven points from three games, and against Atlético they pressed well, created the better chances and took the lead through Jamie Leweling, his first goal since March. Julián Álvarez equalised two minutes after the break, and even after Morten Hjulmand’s red card Hoeneß’s side could not find a winner.
The Bundesliga is a different story. Stuttgart have lost four of six league games, the latest a 1-0 defeat in Hamburg, where they had huge spells of possession but were caught late by Miro Muheim’s long-range strike. Their two league wins, 4-1 against Köln and 2-0 at Paderborn, were both by at least two goals. The open question is how much they have left in the legs after Tuesday, and how they cope without Vagnoman, their top league scorer.
What works for or against Stuttgart
- Unbeaten in the Champions League, with seven points from three games.
- Both Bundesliga wins came by two goals or more.
- Four defeats in six league games and 13th in the table.
- Three days' rest after Atlético, and Vagnoman is out.
Gladbach Team News & Preview
Blessin took over in September and has lost both league games in charge, 2-1 at Köln and 2-1 at home to Hoffenheim. The defeat to Hoffenheim followed a familiar script. Mohya’s equaliser gave Gladbach a short spell of momentum, but Alexander Prass restored Hoffenheim’s lead five minutes later, and only Moritz Nicolas kept the score down from there.
The defensive record is the core problem: 20 goals conceded in six games, with five against Freiburg and three against Leipzig. Gladbach do score, they have found the net in four of their six league games, but four of their defeats have been by a single goal. Without Kleindienst, their first-choice striker, and Honorat, their best-rated player, the burden falls on Hugo Bolin, Wael Mohya and a possibly unfit Lidberg.
What works for or against Gladbach
- Six defeats from six, with 20 goals conceded.
- Kleindienst, Honorat and Itakura are all out.
- Scored in four of their six league games.
- Five days' rest, compared with three for Stuttgart.
Stuttgart vs Gladbach Odds
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Stuttgart Form, Stats & Data
Stuttgart create plenty in the league, more than two expected goals per game, but they have scored only eight times. The 2.40 xG against per game is inflated by the 5-1 at Bayern, yet they have still conceded in five of six league matches.
Gladbach Form, Stats & Data
Gladbach are allowing almost two and a half expected goals per game, the clearest sign that the problems run deeper than bad luck. Their best-rated player, Honorat, is injured, which makes an already weak attack even thinner.
Stuttgart vs Gladbach: Prediction & Betting Tip
I expect Stuttgart to win, and I want them to win by more than one. Gladbach have the worst defence in the league, they are missing most of their attacking leaders, and their two heaviest defeats came against the better sides they have faced. Stuttgart’s two league wins were both comfortable, and the level they showed against Atlético is well above anything Gladbach have produced this season.
The case against is fatigue and Gladbach’s habit of losing narrowly. Four of their six defeats have been by a single goal, and Stuttgart have struggled to turn chances into goals in the league. That is why I prefer the -1 line to -1.5: a one-goal win returns the stake, while a two-goal margin pays out.
My bet is VfB Stuttgart -1 Asian Handicap at 1.54 with Winz. I am going for 3-1.