Lugano’s goals against Bordalás‘ wall: the Swiss side look the better bet in Getafe
Getafe have scored five goals in nine LaLiga games and won once in nine matches in all competitions. Lugano, meanwhile, have scored 19 in their last five, all of them wins. On paper the Spanish side are favourites, but the form of the two clubs points the other way. José Bordalás will rely on what Getafe always do well, which is making games tight and scrappy, and at home that has at least kept them unbeaten in six.
Lugano have won 4-1, 4-0, 4-0, 3-2 and 4-0 in their last five games, including the 3-2 win over Crvena Zvezda in the Conference League.
Predicted lineups: Getafe vs Lugano
Getafe are without Iván Azón, Orel Mangala, Zaid Romero, Christantus Uche and Juanmi. Djené was sent off against Rayo Vallecano, but that is a domestic suspension, so he should be available here. Lugano are missing Carbone and Claudio Cassano, and Mattia Croci-Torti is likely to stick with the 3-4-2-1 that beat Zvezda, with Albian Ajeti leading the line. Both XIs are my best estimate.
Getafe Team News & Preview
Getafe’s problem is obvious: they do not score. Five league goals from nine games is a remarkably low return, and they have failed to score in four of those matches. Seven of their last eight games in all competitions have had fewer than three goals, which tells you how Bordalás wants these evenings to go.
The Coliseum still matters. Getafe have beaten Partizan, Racing and Málaga there and drawn with Celta, Deportivo and Rayo, so no visiting side has won there in their last six home games. In the Conference League opener they drew 1-1 at Universitatea Craiova, with Nemanja Gudelj scoring. The concern is that home draws have become as common as home wins.
What works for or against Getafe
- Unbeaten in six home games in all competitions.
- Five goals in nine LaLiga games.
- One win in their last nine games.
- Azón, Mangala, Romero, Uche and Juanmi are all out.
Lugano Team News & Preview
Lugano are flying. They are unbeaten in seven Swiss league games, have won their last five in all competitions and scored at least three in each of them. The 3-2 against Zvezda took some nerve, with Anto Grgić winning it from the penalty spot late on, and Grgić was Lugano’s best-rated player.
They are not a possession side in Europe. Lugano had only 41.2% of the ball against Zvezda and still created 2.20 xG, and that kind of direct football can hurt a Getafe defence that will be without Romero. They have already been tested away from home in Europe this season, drawing 1-1 at Maccabi Tel Aviv in qualifying.
What works for or against Lugano
- Five straight wins, with 19 goals scored.
- Unbeaten in seven Swiss league games.
- Created 2.20 xG against Zvezda with only 41.2% of the ball.
- Conceded twice at home to Zvezda.
Getafe vs Lugano Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Half-Time/Full-Time
Getafe vs. FC Lugano Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Getafe vs. FC Lugano Form Guide
Getafe Form, Stats & Data
Getafe had 57% of the ball in Craiova, which is unusual for a Bordalás team, and allowed only 0.80 xG. Three shots on target from 1.50 xG is typical of a side that creates half-chances rather than clear ones.
FC Lugano Form, Stats & Data
Lugano’s opener showed a team that is dangerous without needing the ball. Allowing 1.20 xG to Zvezda is the weak spot, and it is the one thing that could let Getafe’s limited attack into the game.
Getafe vs Lugano: Prediction & Betting Tip
I do not trust Getafe to win this. They have won once in nine, they cannot score in the league, and three of their last six home games have been draws. Lugano are in outstanding form, they score in every game and they have the attacking players to punish a Getafe side that rarely builds a lead.
The strongest point in Getafe’s favour is that unbeaten home run. Bordalás‘ teams are uncomfortable to play against, and Lugano have not faced this sort of physical, disciplined side in the Swiss league. That is why I want the draw on my side rather than backing Lugano to win outright.
My main bet is Lugano +0.5 Asian Handicap at 2.02 with Winz, and 1-1 is the score I expect.