Reis has Trabzonspor winning by margins, and Hearts arrive bruised from Celtic Park
Four games, four wins, 13 goals scored and two conceded: that is Thomas Reis‘ record at Trabzonspor so far. The latest was a 2-0 win over Beşiktaş on Monday, which followed a 4-2 victory at KuPS on the opening night of the Conference League. Hearts took a point from their opener against Nordsjælland, but they come to the Black Sea coast four days after a 7-1 hammering in Glasgow.
“Beşiktaş maçından farklı bir 11 olabilir.” – Trabzonspor manager Thomas Reis (“We could have a different XI from the Beşiktaş game.”)
Predicted lineups: Trabzonspor vs Hearts
Reis has already hinted at changes, so the side that beat Beşiktaş may not start again. Paul Onuachu, Ruslan Malinovskyi, Arseniy Batahov and Onuralp Çevikkan are all injured, and Okay Yokuşlu is a doubt. Hearts are without Ageu, Blair Spittal, Tom Renaud and Craig Halkett, while Oisin McEntee, who scored against Nordsjælland, is struggling to be fit. Both line-ups below are my best estimate.
Trabzonspor Team News & Preview
Trabzonspor have not just been winning under Reis; they have been winning well. Galatasaray were beaten 4-0, Samsunspor 3-0 away from home, KuPS 4-2 in Finland and Beşiktaş 2-0, with Ozan Tufan and Mohamed Salah on the scoresheet on Monday. Every one of those four wins came by at least two goals.
Franculino is the man in form. He scored twice at KuPS and was the best-rated player on the pitch, and with Onuachu out he is the obvious focal point. The concern is the turnaround: Trabzonspor played on Monday, Reis is talking about changes, and they are not invincible at Papara Park in Europe, having lost 1-0 to Ferencváros there in August.
What works for or against Trabzonspor
- Four wins from four under Reis, all by two goals or more.
- Franculino scored twice at KuPS and rated 8.88.
- Only three days' rest after Monday's win over Beşiktaş, with changes signalled.
- Onuachu and Malinovskyi are both injured.
Hearts Team News & Preview
The 7-1 at Celtic Park came a week after Hearts had thrashed St Mirren 5-0, which sums up Wouter Vrancken’s side: they are rarely dull. They have scored in every one of their last 12 games, including both 2-2 draws with Rapid Vienna in the play-off and last week’s 1-1 against Nordsjælland.
The problem is what happens at the other end, especially on the road. Hearts lost at Falkirk, drew at Kilmarnock and then shipped seven in Glasgow, and Halkett’s absence leaves the back four short of experience. Jamie McCart set up McEntee’s goal against Nordsjælland and was Hearts‘ best player that night, but he will need help in Trabzon.
What works for or against Hearts
- Scored in each of their last 12 games.
- Conceded seven at Celtic on Sunday.
- Halkett, Spittal, Renaud and Ageu are all missing.
- One more day of rest than Trabzonspor.
Trabzonspor vs Hearts Odds
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Trabzonspor Form, Stats & Data
One league-phase game is a small sample, but the 3.70 xG at KuPS fits what Reis has built in a month: Trabzonspor get numbers into the box and create clear chances. Allowing 2.40 xG in Finland is the one warning sign.
Hearts Form, Stats & Data
Hearts produced 1.90 xG against Nordsjælland with only 43% of the ball, so they can hurt teams without dominating. That approach suits an away game in Trabzon, but it also means long spells of defending.
Trabzonspor vs Hearts: Prediction & Betting Tip
I think Trabzonspor win this, and win it with something to spare. Four wins under Reis, all by two goals or more, against opposition that includes Galatasaray and Beşiktaş, is a serious run. Hearts have just conceded seven and are missing Halkett from a defence that has looked loose on its travels.
Rotation is the real risk. Reis has openly talked about a different XI, and a much-changed side can win 1-0 and still let the handicap down. Hearts also score in almost every game, so a 2-1 is very possible. I still think the gap in form and quality is big enough for a two-goal win, but this is not a bet to go big on.
I am backing Trabzonspor -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.83 with Winz, and 3-1 is the score I expect.