NEC’s winless run meets a Dinamo side that has made Maksimir hard work for visitors
NEC have not won in eight games, and the last four have all been draws. That is the backdrop to their trip to Zagreb, where Dinamo have won their last four home games, the most recent a 1-0 over Anderlecht settled by a stoppage-time penalty. Mario Kovačević’s side followed that with a 5-1 win at Slaven on Sunday, so they have four points from two Europa League games and plenty of confidence.
NEC have taken one point from two Europa League games, losing 5-0 at Juventus and drawing 1-1 at home with Levski Sofia.
Predicted lineups: Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC
Dinamo have no new injury worries, so I expect Kovačević to stick with most of the side that won at Slaven, with Dion Drena Beljo up front. NEC are thinner. Bram Nuytinck and Philippe Sandler are both injured, Emre Mor is a day-to-day doubt and Dušan Tadić, who was not in the squad for the draw with Fortuna Sittard, is reported to be out with a calf problem. The NEC line-up is my best estimate.
Dinamo Zagreb Team News & Preview
Dinamo have not been pretty in Europe. They drew 0-0 at Hapoel Beer Sheva, then needed a penalty in stoppage time to beat Anderlecht, and they have had only 39.5% of the ball across the two games. What they have done is defend: no goals conceded, and Dominik Kotarski has been their best player in the competition.
At home the picture is more convincing. Varaždin, Gorica, Lokomotiva and Anderlecht have all been beaten at Maksimir, and Sunday’s 5-1 at Slaven was a reminder that this attack can open up when it gets space. The one blip in recent weeks was a 2-1 defeat at Hajduk Split, a derby rather than a sign of decline.
What works for or against Dinamo Zagreb
- Four straight home wins, including 1-0 against Anderlecht.
- No goals conceded in two Europa League games.
- Won 5-1 at Slaven on Sunday.
- Only one goal and two shots on target per game in Europe so far.
NEC Team News & Preview
Dick Schreuder’s side have become very hard to beat and almost impossible to back. Since a 3-0 defeat at Cambuur in September, they have lost only once in five games, the 5-0 at Juventus, but they have drawn the other four. The 2-2 with Fortuna Sittard on Sunday was another game they could not close out.
The defensive numbers in Europe are poor. NEC have conceded six goals and 5.5 xG in two Europa League games, and they will be without Nuytinck and Sandler again. Going forward, the absence of Tadić leaves Bryan Linssen and Noé Lebreton to carry much of the creative load.
What works for or against NEC
- Winless in eight games in all competitions.
- Six goals and 5.5 xG conceded in two Europa League games.
- Four straight draws, so they are hard to put away.
- Tadić, Nuytinck and Sandler are all missing.
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC Odds
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Din. Zagreb vs. Nijmegen Stats Comparison
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Din. Zagreb Form, Stats & Data
Dinamo’s European numbers describe a side that has been happy to concede the ball and defend its box. They have created 1.20 xG per game but turned it into only one goal, which suggests a little more is to come in front of goal, especially at home against weaker opposition.
Nijmegen Form, Stats & Data
NEC have kept the ball and got shots away, averaging six on target per game, but they have given up 2.75 xG per game. That imbalance is why their European campaign has produced one point despite decent attacking volume.
Dinamo Zagreb vs NEC: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am happy to back Dinamo here. Their home form is excellent, they have not conceded in the Europa League, and they arrive on the back of a five-goal away win. NEC have not won since the end of August and are missing three senior players, two of them centre-backs.
The draw is what worries me. NEC have drawn four in a row and Dinamo have not been prolific in Europe, so a cagey 1-1 is not out of the question. But NEC have also conceded at least once in each of their last seven games, and I trust Dinamo’s defence more than NEC’s to hold out late on.
My pick is Dinamo Zagreb to win at 1.60 with Winz; I can see it finishing 2-0.