Toothless HSV lose their creator for crisis meeting in Sinsheim
Two sides in the bottom five meet at the SNP Arena on Saturday, 10 October 2026, when TSG Hoffenheim host Hamburger SV on Bundesliga matchday five. Both have three points from four games, both came into the international break under pressure, and both return with fresh problems. For Merlin Polzin those problems sit right where HSV are already weakest: in the final third. Kick-off is at 15:30 CEST, with Harm Osmers in charge.
HSV have managed just two Bundesliga goals in four games, and Albert Grønbæk created both of them. He misses this trip with a torn muscle fibre.
Predicted lineups: Hoffenheim vs HSV
Christian Ilzer has no confirmed absentees, but there are two defensive doubts: Hajdari came back early from international duty with a knee problem and Bernardo has Achilles complaints, so Machida and Rots are expected to keep their places. Fisnik Asllani is fit again and pushing for his first start of the season. HSV are reorganising their attack. With Grønbæk and Daka out, Adeline is expected to move into the attacking midfield role alongside Fábio Vieira, while Yussuf Poulsen, Moffi or 19-year-old Otto Stange are the candidates to lead the line.
Hoffenheim Team News & Preview
Three defeats from four is Hoffenheim’s worst Bundesliga start since 2015, yet the underlying picture is more mixed than the table. They lost 3-2 at Köln after leading, went down 3-2 at home to Dortmund after an own goal late on, then beat Stuttgart 2-1 thanks to two goals from Adam Hložek. The 3-1 defeat at Paderborn before the break looked worse than the performance: Hoffenheim had 1.62 xG to Paderborn’s 0.89 and hit the woodwork twice through Coufal and Conté, but they could not break down a compact block and were punished from an uncleared corner and a late header.
The bigger issue is at the other end. Ilzer’s side have conceded in every competitive match this season, including the 2-0 Europa League defeat at OFI Crete, and their only clean sheet came in the DFB-Pokal against Aue. Adam Daghim has been the bright spot with two goals and two assists, and with Beşiktaş visiting on Thursday there is a European fixture in the background, although Ilzer cannot afford to rotate heavily with three points on the board.
What works for or against Hoffenheim
- Hoffenheim created more than Paderborn last time out and hit the woodwork twice in a 3-1 defeat.
- They have conceded in all four league games and in their Europa League opener.
- Adam Daghim is involved in four of their seven league goals.
- Beşiktaş visit in the Europa League on Thursday.
HSV Team News & Preview
HSV’s start has been brutal at the attacking end. They lost 2-0 at Dortmund, 5-0 at home to Mainz and 5-0 at Leipzig before finally scoring twice in a 2-1 win over Köln. Even that win needed context: Köln had around 70 per cent of the ball, finished with the higher xG (1.77 to 1.58), hit the post and were kept out by several Daniel Heuer Fernandes saves. Both HSV goals came from Grønbæk deliveries, a corner headed in by Nicolás Capaldo and a cross finished by substitute Poulsen.
Now Grønbæk is out with a torn muscle fibre picked up with Denmark, and Daka suffered the same injury with Zambia. Grønbæk is HSV’s highest-rated player on FotMob and has been their main creator, from open play and dead balls alike. Polzin admitted the injury list is longer than he had hoped and is still deciding between a central striker and Vieira as a false nine. Poulsen, who came off after 21 minutes against FC Copenhagen with a thigh problem, is not guaranteed to be ready either.
What works for or against HSV
- HSV have scored two league goals in four games and none away from home.
- Grønbæk, who created both league goals, and Daka are out with fresh muscle injuries.
- Set pieces remain a route to goal, as Capaldo showed against Köln.
- Polzin is undecided on his striker, with Poulsen still nursing a thigh problem.
Hoffenheim vs HSV Odds
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Hoffenheim vs. Hamburg Form Guide
Hoffenheim Form, Stats & Data
Hoffenheim’s 1.60 xG per game is respectable and fits a side that has created enough in most of its matches, including the defeat at Paderborn. The concern is that they concede 2.50 goals per game from 1.55 xGA, which points to costly individual moments and set-piece lapses rather than opponents carving them open every week. Against an HSV attack producing only 0.93 xG per game, that defensive leak should be tested far less than it was by Dortmund or Köln.
Hamburg Form, Stats & Data
HSV average 0.93 xG and 3.8 shots on target per game, with only 41.6 per cent possession. Those numbers were built with Grønbæk in the side, and his 7.17 FotMob rating is the best in the squad, so losing him hits the one area that has been producing chances. The FotMob team rating of 6.26 is the second-lowest in the division, and the away numbers are worse still: two games, no goals, seven conceded.
Hoffenheim vs HSV: Prediction & Betting Tip
For me, this game is about HSV’s attack rather than Hoffenheim’s form. The visitors have scored in one of four league games, have not scored away from home, and arrive without the player who supplied both of their goals. Whether Polzin goes with a half-fit Poulsen, Moffi, the teenage Stange or Vieira as a false nine, it is a makeshift front line against a home side that is likely to have most of the ball. Hoffenheim have also won both meetings with HSV under Ilzer, 4-1 at home and 2-1 in Hamburg last season.
What worries me is Hoffenheim’s defence. They have not kept a clean sheet in league or European football this season, and HSV’s opener against Köln came from a corner, exactly the kind of set piece that cost Hoffenheim at Paderborn. I still think HSV’s chance creation is too thin and too dependent on players who are missing, so I am happy to take them to draw a blank.
My main bet is HSV under 0.5 team goals at 2.70 with Winz. My correct-score pick is 2-0 to Hoffenheim.