An Ajax team that never keeps it tight meets an Atalanta defence missing four centre-backs
Ajax have played 12 competitive games since the middle of August, and only one of them, a 1-1 with NEC, has had fewer than three goals. Sunday’s 5-2 win at Groningen was the latest in a long line of open games. Maurizio Sarri’s Atalanta arrive with eight players injured or doubtful, four of them centre-backs, and their last three games have finished 3-1, 3-1 and 3-2.
Odilon Kossounou, Giorgio Scalvini and Sead Kolašinac are all injured, and Isak Hien is a doubt, leaving Atalanta short of senior centre-backs in Amsterdam.
Predicted lineups: Ajax vs Atalanta
Míchel should keep most of the side that won in Groningen, with Julian Brandt, Jorthy Mokio and Oscar Gloukh again central to the attack. Kasper Dolberg is out for the season and Anton Gaaei is injured, while Caio Henrique, Daley Blind and Steven Berghuis are day-to-day. Atalanta are without Kolašinac, Kossounou, Scalvini, Franck Kessié, Thomas Pompei, Giacomo Raspadori and Kamaldeen Sulemana, and Hien is doubtful. With Kolašinac now out, the Atalanta back four below is my best estimate.
Ajax Team News & Preview
Ajax’s season has been entertaining for neutrals and stressful for their own supporters. They have conceded in 11 of their last 12 games, and their home record is surprisingly ordinary: two wins from six, with draws against Heerenveen, Excelsior and NEC and a 3-1 defeat to PSV. Their Conference League campaign started with a 2-1 loss at Hajduk Split.
Going forward, though, there is plenty to like. Brandt and Mokio both scored twice at Groningen, and Ajax have put five past Sion, Fortuna Sittard and Willem II as well. Without Dolberg there is less of a reference point up front, but the movement of Brandt and Gloukh behind Marcos Leonardo gives them several sources of goals.
What works for or against Ajax
- Won 5-2 at Groningen on Sunday.
- Only two wins from their last six home games.
- Conceded in 11 of their last 12 games.
- Dolberg is out for the season and Gaaei is injured.
Atalanta Team News & Preview
Atalanta’s season has two faces. At home they have beaten Venezia and Pafos 3-1 in the space of three days; away from Bergamo in Serie A they have lost all three games, at Roma, Juventus and, on Sunday, Milan. The 3-2 at San Siro showed they can still score against good sides, but also that they are conceding more than a Sarri team usually would.
The injury list is the big story. Losing Kossounou, Scalvini and now Kolašinac leaves Sarri with few natural centre-backs, and Hien’s fitness is uncertain. Kessié’s absence also removes some protection in front of the defence. Up front, Charles De Ketelaere was excellent against Pafos, and Nikola Krstović and Jonathan Rowe give Atalanta pace and goals.
What works for or against Atalanta
- Beat Pafos 3-1 in their Conference League opener.
- Lost all three Serie A away games this season.
- Eight players injured or doubtful, including four centre-backs.
- Scored at least twice in each of their last three games.
Ajax vs Atalanta Odds
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Ajax Form, Stats & Data
The numbers from Split are only one game, but they match the wider picture: Ajax had more of the ball and still allowed 1.80 xG. Their domestic scoring rate is far higher than the single goal they managed in Croatia.
Atalanta Form, Stats & Data
Atalanta dominated Pafos with 65% of the ball and 3.00 xG. That was a home game against modest opposition, though, and their away results in Serie A tell a very different story.
Ajax vs Atalanta: Prediction & Betting Tip
Picking a winner here is hard; picking goals is much easier. Ajax’s games have gone over 2.5 goals with remarkable consistency, they concede almost every week, and they now face an Atalanta side that has scored at least twice in each of its last three games. Atalanta’s defensive injuries only strengthen that case.
The argument for a tighter game is that this is a European night between two sides who both need points, and Sarri may set up to protect a makeshift back line rather than trade blows. Ajax’s 1-1 with NEC and Atalanta’s early-season 1-0 wins show that these teams can produce low-scoring games. With so few defenders available to Sarri, I do not expect that on Thursday.
I am backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.55 with Winz and see this ending 2-2.