Brighton bring a six-game winning run to a small Czech ground with a big European memory
Brighton have scored 22 goals in winning their last six games, the latest a 5-0 demolition of Crystal Palace on Sunday. Only one of those wins, 3-2 at Manchester United in the cup, was by a single goal. Jablonec are a different test: their Střelnice ground holds barely 6,300, and it was there that they beat Rangers 1-0 to reach the league phase. But Luboš Kozel’s side have just lost 3-2 at Freiburg and 3-2 at home to Viktoria Plzeň.
Brighton top the Conference League table after a 4-0 win over Kauno Žalgiris, with Georginio Rutter scoring twice.
Predicted lineups: Jablonec vs Brighton
Fabian Hürzeler is without Mats Wieffer, Evan Ferguson, Femi Azeez, Kaoru Mitoma, Stefanos Tzimas, Yankuba Minteh and Zadok Yohanna, and with Premier League football straight after this trip I expect changes from the side that beat Palace. Rutter and Ibrahim Osman, who scored twice and set up two goals respectively against Kauno, are likely to return. Jablonec are missing Lamin Jawo, Kevin-Prince Milla and Jan Suchan, while Klemen Mihelak is back in training. The Brighton XI below is my best estimate.
Jablonec Team News & Preview
Jablonec have shown they can score against good opposition. They found the net twice in Freiburg and twice against Plzeň, and Antonín Růsek and Garang Kuol both scored in Germany. The problem is the other end: six goals conceded in two games, and only 39.7% of the ball in their Conference League opener.
Their home ground is their best weapon, and the win over Rangers came there. Even so, Jablonec managed only two shots on target in Freiburg, and Brighton will have far more of the ball than anyone they face in the Czech league.
What works for or against Jablonec
- Beat Rangers 1-0 at home in qualifying.
- Scored twice in each of their last two games.
- Conceded six goals in those two games.
- Jawo, Milla and Suchan are all out.
Brighton Team News & Preview
Brighton’s run is not just about results. They have beaten Arsenal 3-0, Sunderland 2-0 away and Palace 5-0 in the league, and they controlled Kauno Žalgiris with 77.5% possession and 4.10 xG while allowing almost nothing. Their squad depth has handled the absences well so far.
That depth will be tested again. Seven players are out, and Hürzeler will want to protect his key men for the league. A rotated Brighton side still has plenty of quality, though: Rutter rated 9.15 against Kauno, and Osman set up two goals in the same game.
What works for or against Brighton
- Six straight wins and 22 goals in that run.
- Beat Kauno Žalgiris 4-0 with 4.10 xG.
- Seven players injured, including Mitoma and Minteh.
- Rotation is likely with league football straight after.
Jablonec vs Brighton Odds
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Jablonec vs. Brighton Stats Comparison
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Jablonec vs. Brighton Form Guide
Jablonec Form, Stats & Data
Two goals from 1.30 xG in Freiburg was efficient finishing rather than sustained pressure. Jablonec were mostly without the ball and will probably have even less of it against Brighton.
Brighton Form, Stats & Data
Brighton’s opener was as one-sided as a game gets: 4.10 xG for, 0.10 against and nine shots on target. Kauno are weaker than Jablonec, but the gap in the numbers is still huge.
Jablonec vs Brighton: Prediction & Betting Tip
I expect Brighton to win this by at least two goals. They are in the form of their season, they have won five of their last six games by two or more, and Jablonec have conceded three in each of their last two matches. Even a heavily changed Brighton side should dominate the ball.
The main danger is the combination of rotation and a tight, noisy ground. Jablonec beat Rangers there, and they have scored twice in each of their last two games, so a 2-1 Brighton win is possible. I still think Brighton’s quality and Jablonec’s defensive problems point to a comfortable away win.
The bet is Brighton -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.77 with Winz; my correct score is 1-3.