Marseille need points, and Sturm have to cope without their goalkeeper
Marseille have played two Europa League games and lost both, 4-1 in Istanbul and 1-0 at home to Olympiacos. Ligue 1 has gone better lately: Bruno Génésio’s side won 2-0 at Troyes and 5-2 at Angers, so they arrive in Graz with goals in their legs. Sturm thrashed GAK 6-1 in the derby on Sunday, but it came at a cost, with goalkeeper Daniil Khudyakov now ruled out for the rest of the season.
Sturm Graz have taken one point from two Europa League games and are still waiting for their first goal in the competition.
Predicted lineups: Sturm Graz vs Marseille
Ammar Helac is set to replace Khudyakov in goal. Fabio Ingolitsch is also without Gizo Mamageishvili, Nelson Weiper, Otar Kiteishvili, Filip Rózga, Seedy Jatta and Emran Soglo, so his options in midfield and attack are limited. Marseille are missing Derek Cornelius and Pierre-Emile Højbjerg. The Sturm XI below is my best estimate.
Sturm Graz Team News & Preview
Sturm’s derby win over GAK, with Oumar Diakité scoring a hat-trick, was their best performance in weeks. It also followed a familiar pattern for this team: good enough to beat Austrian opposition comfortably, but short of quality in Europe. They drew 0-0 with Rennes at home in the first round and then lost 3-0 at Bournemouth.
The numbers from those two games are stark. Sturm have had 37.9% of the ball, 2.5 shots on target per game and 0.55 xG per game, while conceding 2.30 xG per game. Losing Khudyakov makes that defensive load even harder to carry, and the injury list means Ingolitsch has little to change from the bench.
What works for or against Sturm Graz
- Beat GAK 6-1 on Sunday, with a Diakité hat-trick.
- Held Rennes to a 0-0 draw in Graz.
- No goals and 0.55 xG per game in the Europa League.
- Khudyakov and six other players are out.
Marseille Team News & Preview
Marseille’s Europa League start has been poor, with one goal from 2.10 xG and five goals conceded. But the defeat to Olympiacos was a narrow one, and either side of it they won twice away from home in Ligue 1. Seven goals in two away wins suggests the attack around Amine Gouiri and Igor Paixão has found its rhythm.
Away form is still worth watching. Marseille were beaten 4-1 at Beşiktaş in September, and without Cornelius and Højbjerg they lose some experience through the middle. The pressure is also on: a third defeat would leave them with almost no margin for the rest of the league phase.
What works for or against Marseille
- Won 2-0 at Troyes and 5-2 at Angers in their last two league games.
- No points from two Europa League games.
- Lost 4-1 at Beşiktaş on their last European trip.
- Cornelius and Højbjerg are both out.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
Both Teams to Score
Half-Time/Full-Time
Sturm Graz vs. Marseille Stats Comparison
Show Recent Results
Sturm Graz vs. Marseille Form Guide
Sturm Graz Form, Stats & Data
Sturm have spent most of their two European games without the ball and have created very little when they have had it. Conceding only three goals from 2.30 xG against per game also suggests Khudyakov had been doing a lot of work, which makes his loss more significant.
Marseille Form, Stats & Data
Marseille’s European numbers are weak at both ends, and they have conceded more than their 1.75 xG against per game would suggest. Their recent league goals show the attack is capable of much more than one goal in two games.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: Prediction & Betting Tip
I think Marseille are the better side and should take something from this. Sturm have not scored in Europe, their underlying numbers are among the weakest in the competition, and they are now without their first-choice goalkeeper and six other players. Marseille, by contrast, have just scored seven goals in two league away games.
The counter-argument is Marseille’s own European form. They have lost both games, conceded five and looked vulnerable away from home in Istanbul. Sturm also showed against Rennes that they can make a game ugly in Graz. That is why I want the draw covered rather than backing Marseille outright.
My selection is Marseille Draw No Bet at 1.45 with Winz, and I expect a 2-0 away win.