Six goals in eight games – and now Cagliari lose Winks before a trip to Roma
Cagliari’s attack has dried up. Fabio Pisacane’s side have scored six league goals all season, none in the last 180 minutes, and against Bologna on Saturday they had 57% of the ball but only one shot on target. Now they travel to the Olimpico without Harry Winks, the player Pisacane says they cannot replace. Roma are third and unbeaten, but Gian Piero Gasperini is managing a heavy schedule, with Udinese on Saturday and Manchester United in the Champions League next Tuesday.
„Con Winks perdiamo tanto… non ci sono altri elementi con le sue caratteristiche.“ („Without Winks we lose a lot… we have no one else like him.“) – Cagliari coach Fabio Pisacane
Predicted lineups: Roma vs Cagliari
Roma are without goalkeeper Mile Svilar (broken toe), so Pierluigi Gollini starts again. Manu Koné and Lorenzo Pellegrini are also out, while Paulo Dybala could return to the bench. Gasperini said „probabilmente faremo rotazioni“ („we’ll probably rotate“), and the Italian papers disagree on several places, so the Roma XI follows Fantacalcio. Cagliari are missing Winks with a back problem, along with long-term absentees Riyad Idrissi and Mattia Felici. Pisacane said Yerry Mina could start and that Kevin Carlos could play up front.
Roma Team News & Preview
This is Roma’s fifth game in 14 days. They lost 4-3 to Real Madrid and beat Slovan Bratislava 4-0 in the Champions League, beat Genoa 2-0 and came from 2-0 down to draw 3-3 in Naples on Saturday, with Leonardo Balerdi scoring twice. Gasperini expects to rotate, and Svilar’s absence is a real blow, but the squad is deep.
At home Roma have been very solid: three wins and a draw, ten goals scored and three conceded. Donyell Malen leads the scoring with six league goals, and Matías Soulé has three. Over the season Roma have conceded six league goals and kept five clean sheets.
What works for or against Roma
- Five clean sheets and six goals conceded in eight league games.
- Unbeaten at home, with ten goals scored in four games.
- Fifth game in 14 days, with Manchester United next Tuesday.
- First-choice goalkeeper Svilar is out.
Cagliari Team News & Preview
The last two games have been a shock for Cagliari: 4-0 at Monza and 0-2 at home to Bologna. Bologna had ten shots to Cagliari’s four and five on target to one. Pisacane insisted „non siamo diventati il nulla cosmico“ („we haven’t suddenly become nothing“), and he pointed out that Gasperini’s teams take risks at the back.
There is little sign of goals in this side, though. Daniel Maldini has four of the six league goals, and goalkeeper Elia Caprile is the best-rated player in the squad, which shows how much defending Cagliari do. Their four away games have brought three wins, but only four goals.
What works for or against Cagliari
- Three wins from four away league games.
- Six goals in eight league games and none in the last two.
- Winks, their playmaker, is out.
- One shot on target against Bologna on Saturday.
Roma vs Cagliari Odds
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AS Roma Form, Stats & Data
Roma create 2.14 expected goals per game and allow 1.23, so they control most games. They also concede fewer goals than their expected goals suggest, and Gollini now has to keep that going. Dybala is the best-rated player but is only fit for the bench at most.
Cagliari Form, Stats & Data
Cagliari’s 13 points are a surprise given the numbers: 1.11 expected goals for and 1.81 against per game. They have scored 0.75 goals per game and managed 3.6 shots on target, the lowest figure of either side tonight by a distance. Without Winks the build-up loses its main passer.
Roma vs Cagliari: Prediction & Betting Tip
Cagliari have scored six goals in eight league games and none in the last two, they had one shot on target against Bologna and their playmaker is out. Roma have conceded six league goals all season and kept five clean sheets. I expect Cagliari to draw a blank in Rome.
Rotation is the risk. Gasperini will change several players, Svilar is out, and Pisacane is right that Gasperini’s side can leave gaps when they push forward. Cagliari have also won three of their four away games, so they can nick a goal on the break. Even so, the attacking numbers are too poor for me to expect them to score, and I am backing Cagliari under 0.5 team goals at 1.92 with Winz, with Roma winning 2-0.