A relegation fight against a squad hit by illness
This match should have been played on Saturday. Vålerenga asked the NFF to postpone it after an illness outbreak in their squad, submitting doctors‘ certificates for 12 players, and the federation agreed after an independent medical assessment. Kristiansund opposed the move. They are 15th, one point behind Aalesund in the play-off place, and they come into Monday’s game after a 4-2 win at Sarpsborg. How many of Vålerenga’s players have recovered is the big unknown: no update had been published by Sunday morning.
„From a sporting point of view we really want to play. The team is in good form at the moment, but it isn’t sensible medically.“ – Vålerenga sporting director Lars Petter Kræmer-Andressen on Friday (via VG, translated from Norwegian)
Predicted lineups: Kristiansund vs Vålerenga
Kristiansund’s line-up follows FotMob’s prediction. Top scorer Leander Alvheim missed the Sarpsborg game through suspension and is expected to be available again. Dan Peter Ulvestad was sent off against KFUM on 25 October and also sat out at Sarpsborg; whether his ban is over has not been confirmed. Vålerenga’s side below is the one that beat Tromsø, but with an unknown number of players recovering from illness, it is little more than a starting point.
Kristiansund BK Team News & Preview
Kristiansund have 23 points from 25 games and one of the leakiest defences in the league, with 51 goals conceded. At home they have won four, drawn three and lost five. Their recent run has been patchy: a 4-1 home defeat to Aalesund, a 2-2 draw with KFUM after leading 2-0, a cup exit against Aalesund and then the 4-2 win at Sarpsborg, built on three goals in the first half-hour.
That win came despite being heavily outplayed on the stats – 29 per cent of the ball and ten shots to Sarpsborg’s 23 – and Amund Skiri switched to a back three for it. Alvheim, with 12 league goals, is their only consistent scorer, and his return matters.
What works for or against Kristiansund
- Won 4-2 at Sarpsborg last time out.
- Alvheim, 12 league goals, expected back.
- 51 goals conceded, 2.0 per game.
- Five home defeats this season.
Vålerenga Team News & Preview
Before the illness, Vålerenga were in good form. They won 1-0 at Bodø/Glimt, beat Brann 3-1 and thrashed Tromsø 4-0, although Tromsø played with ten men from the seventh minute. They are eighth with 32 points, and Lucas Ravn-Haren has 11 league goals.
Away from home they have been far less convincing, with three wins, three draws and six defeats, and they have conceded 46 league goals. The outbreak is the decisive factor. The club doctor said it was not medically justifiable to play on Saturday, and on Friday only ten players were expected to train. No player has been named and no update has followed.
What works for or against Vålerenga
- Three league wins in their last four.
- Ravn-Haren has 11 league goals.
- Illness outbreak, 12 players affected last week.
- Six defeats in 12 away league games.
Kristiansund vs Vålerenga Odds
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Kristiansund Form, Stats & Data
Kristiansund’s numbers are those of a relegation side: they allow more than two expected goals per game and create little. Goalkeeper Adrian Sæther, their highest-rated player, has been busy all season. The case for them on Monday rests on the opponent’s situation, not on their own data.
Valerenga Form, Stats & Data
At full strength Vålerenga are clearly the better side, creating 1.85 expected goals per game. Their defence is almost as open as Kristiansund’s, though, and a squad recovering from illness is unlikely to be at full intensity on an artificial pitch three days after the outbreak forced a postponement.
Kristiansund vs Vålerenga: Prediction & Betting Tip
This is a bet on uncertainty. On the season’s numbers Vålerenga should be favourites, but they arrive after an illness outbreak serious enough for the NFF to postpone the game, with no confirmation of how many players have recovered. Kristiansund need points, have their top scorer back and play at home on their own surface. I think that is enough to make the hosts worth backing with the stake returned on a draw.
The strongest argument against is Kristiansund’s own weakness. They concede two goals per game, they were outplayed even in their win at Sarpsborg, and if most of Vålerenga’s players have recovered, the visitors‘ quality could tell. Because the illness situation is unclear, I am keeping the stake at the minimum. Kristiansund Draw No Bet at 1.95 with Winz is my bet at 1/10, and I expect a 2-1 home win.