Palace take a 5-0 hangover to the one ground where Beşiktaş keep winning
Six home games since the middle of August, six wins, 19 goals: Beşiktaş have been a different team in Istanbul. Marseille were beaten 4-1 there on the opening night of the Europa League, and Vincenzo Italiano’s side followed that with a 3-2 win at Hoffenheim. Crystal Palace arrive on the back of a 5-0 defeat at Brighton, their heaviest of the season, and Pierre Sage has spent the week dealing with the fallout.
Crystal Palace have conceded 17 goals in their last seven Premier League games, five of them at the Amex on Sunday.
Predicted lineups: Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace
Beşiktaş are without Orkun Kökçü and Milot Rashica, and Kökçü’s absence matters more than any other: he has two assists in the Europa League. Oh Hyeon-gyu, who has two goals and is the squad’s best-rated player in the competition, could come into the side for Dušan Vlahović after Monday’s 2-0 defeat at Trabzonspor. Palace still have Chadi Riad out long term, while Dean Henderson, Ben Chilwell and Takehiro Tomiyasu are all doubts. These are my best guesses at both XIs.
Beşiktaş Team News & Preview
Monday’s 2-0 loss at Trabzonspor was a setback, but it came away from home and against the form team in Turkey. In Istanbul, Beşiktaş have looked like a side that expects to score three. They have beaten Eyüpspor, Kauno Žalgiris, Çorum, Erzurumspor, Marseille and Kocaelispor there, conceding only four goals in the process.
Their European numbers are among the best in the competition: 3.15 xG per game, seven goals from two matches and the top team rating in the league phase. The concerns are fatigue, with only three days between Trabzon and this game, and the loss of Kökçü, who links midfield and attack. Junior Olaïtan, with three assists, will have to carry more of that creative work.
What works for or against Beşiktaş
- Six home wins out of six since mid-August, with 19 goals scored.
- 3.15 xG per game in the Europa League.
- Kökçü, a key creator, is injured.
- Played on Monday and lost 2-0 at Trabzonspor.
Crystal Palace Team News & Preview
Palace were outplayed at Brighton and have a defensive problem that goes beyond one bad afternoon. They have conceded 17 goals in seven league games, and away from home they have won only one of their last five, at Fulham, while letting in at least two goals in four of them. The 3-2 defeat at Lyon in the last round followed the same pattern.
There is still quality in this team. Yéremi Pino has two Europa League goals, Adam Wharton has two assists, and Palace scored four against Lech Poznań in the opening round. If Henderson does not recover, Walter Benítez stays in goal behind a back three that has struggled for clean sheets.
What works for or against Crystal Palace
- Lost 5-0 at Brighton on Sunday.
- One win from their last five away games.
- Pino has two Europa League goals and Wharton two assists.
- One more day of rest than Beşiktaş.
Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace Odds
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Besiktas Form, Stats & Data
Beşiktaş have not needed to dominate the ball to create in Europe: an even share of possession has produced 3.15 xG per game. They have conceded three goals from 1.20 xG per game, so the defence has been a little unlucky rather than leaky.
C. Palace Form, Stats & Data
Palace’s six goals in Europe have come from 1.90 xG per game, so their finishing has been sharp. At the other end they have allowed 1.80 xG per game, and their league form suggests that figure is more likely to rise than fall in Istanbul.
Beşiktaş vs Crystal Palace: Prediction & Betting Tip
I like Beşiktaş to win at home. Their record in Istanbul this season is spotless, their attacking numbers in Europe are excellent, and Palace’s defence has been leaking goals for weeks. The Brighton defeat was not an isolated collapse; it followed a run in which Palace conceded at least twice in most of their away games.
The argument against is the schedule and the absentees. Beşiktaş lost on Monday, have a day less to recover and will miss Kökçü’s passing. Palace are also dangerous when they get Pino and Wharton on the ball. I still think the home crowd and Palace’s fragile back line tip this towards Beşiktaş, but I am keeping the stake moderate.
The bet is Beşiktaş to win at 2.02 with Winz. I fancy them 3-1.