Alguacil’s Olympiacos win small, and Sparta’s goals have dried up
Olympiacos have won their last five games 2-1, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0 and 2-0. That is the story of Imanol Alguacil’s side right now: very hard to score against, rarely spectacular, and happy to win by a single goal. Sparta Prague started the Europa League with a 4-1 win in Armenia, but Brian Priske’s team have since been held 1-1 at home by Lillestrøm and 0-0 at Baník Ostrava.
Olympiacos have kept four clean sheets in their last five games, including a 1-0 win at Marseille in the Europa League.
Predicted lineups: Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague
Olympiacos are without Konstantinos Fortounis, who will miss a few weeks, as well as Ayoub El Kaabi and Yusuf Yazıcı, so Alguacil has to rethink the attacking midfield. I expect Gelson Martins and Chiquinho to come in around Gustavo Sá, but that is my estimate. Sparta are missing Matěj Ryneš, Emmanuel Uchenna, Ondřej Penxa and Magnus Kofod Andersen, and Loïc Mbe Soh is a doubt.
Olympiacos Team News & Preview
The 1-0 at Marseille was typical of this Olympiacos side, and so was the 1-0 over Panathinaikos in the derby four days earlier. Across their last 12 competitive games, eight have finished with fewer than three goals.
The worry is where the goals will come from. El Kaabi is out for the season and Fortounis, their creative reference point for years, is injured. Olympiacos have scored only seven times in their five-game winning run, and without Fortounis they may be even more reliant on set pieces and the odd moment from Gustavo Sá.
What works for or against Olympiacos
- Five straight wins with only one goal conceded.
- Six points from two Europa League games, including a win at Marseille.
- Fortounis and El Kaabi are both missing.
- Seven goals in five games, so the wins have been narrow.
Sparta Prague Team News & Preview
Sparta were flying a month ago. They scored four in Yerevan, three at Sigma Olomouc and two against Pardubice, but the last two games have produced a single goal. The 1-1 with Lillestrøm, at home, was a real missed opportunity in the table.
They still have the profile of a side that will create chances. Sparta average eight shots on target per game in the Europa League and have kept 55.5% of the ball, and Tobias Guddal has already scored twice from centre-back, which hints at a set-piece threat. Against an Olympiacos defence that has allowed only 0.70 xG per game in Europe, though, those numbers will be harder to repeat.
What works for or against Sparta Prague
- Eight shots on target per game in the Europa League.
- One goal in their last two games.
- Tobias Guddal has two goals from centre-back.
- Ryneš, Uchenna, Penxa and Kofod Andersen are all out.
Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague Odds
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Olympiakos vs. Sparta Prague Stats Comparison
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Olympiakos vs. Sparta Prague Form Guide
Olympiakos Form, Stats & Data
Olympiacos have allowed just 0.70 xG per game in Europe, which backs up the clean sheets rather than flattering them. At the other end, 1.70 xG per game has produced only three goals, so their attack is functional rather than ruthless.
Sparta Prague Form, Stats & Data
Sparta’s 2.50 goals per game is boosted by the 4-1 in Armenia; their xG of 1.85 per game is a fairer guide. They have also allowed 1.35 xG per game, so they are more open than Olympiacos.
Olympiacos vs Sparta Prague: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am going with goals rather than the result here. Olympiacos are the more likely winners, but their wins are narrow ones, and the absence of Fortounis and El Kaabi makes it even harder to see them running riot. Sparta, meanwhile, have stopped scoring freely and are likely to be pushed back for long spells.
The strongest case for goals is Sparta’s attacking volume. Eight shots on target per game in Europe is a lot, and if they score early Olympiacos will have to come out. But this Olympiacos defence has conceded once in five games, and eight of their last 12 matches have stayed under the line.
I am taking Under 2.5 Goals at 2.05 with Winz, with 1-0 to Olympiacos as my score.