League One leaders Bradford test Burton without Finn Delap
Bradford City are Burton Albion’s visitors at the Pirelli Stadium on Tuesday, 20 October 2026, with a 7.45pm UK kick-off on League One matchday 12. Bradford are top of the table on 20 points with the meanest defence in the division, and this is only Michael Duff’s third game in charge after Graham Alexander left for Preston. Gary Bowyer’s Burton are tenth on 13 points, winless in three league games and probably without centre-back Finn Delap. Sunny Sukhvir Gill has the whistle.
“We know we’re over-achieving in terms of xG tables.” – Bradford manager Michael Duff after the 2-0 win over Stevenage
Predicted lineups: Burton vs Bradford
The big Burton question is Delap, who went off injured around the hour mark in the 2-2 draw at Peterborough and is expected to miss out. That would push George Evans into the back three with Kgaogelo Chauke and Krubally in midfield, while Arubi, who scored from the halfway line on Saturday, is pushing for a start. Bradford have no reported injury issues. Duff’s substitutes won Saturday’s game, so Powell and Swan are in contention, but I expect him to keep the bulk of the starting XI.
Burton Albion Team News & Preview
Burton were seconds away from a first win in three at Peterborough. Charlie Webster cancelled out Peterborough’s second-minute opener with a strike from outside the box, substitute Arubi struck from the halfway line in the 90th minute, and Peterborough still equalised in stoppage time. Bowyer blamed inexperience for the late goal and called a point really disappointing.
That game summed up Burton’s season: they score, but they rarely keep teams out. They have one clean sheet in 11 league games, a 1-0 win at Plymouth, and at home they have won once in five (W1 D3 L1) while conceding nine. Losing Delap would hurt: he is their best-rated player on FotMob (7.33) and top scorer with three goals, which makes him central to both boxes.
What works for or against Burton Albion
- Burton have scored in all five home league games, including 4-1 against Wimbledon.
- Burton won the last two meetings with Bradford, both 2-1.
- Only one clean sheet in 11 league games and 18 goals conceded.
- Finn Delap, the best-rated player and top scorer, is a doubt.
Bradford City Team News & Preview
Duff has walked into a side that already knew how to grind out results. He started with a 0-0 draw against Leyton Orient and got his first win on Saturday, when the substitutes changed the game: Antoni Sarcevic converted a 79th-minute penalty after Powell was fouled, and Swan finished from a Humphrys cutback three minutes from time. Stevenage managed one shot on target all afternoon.
Bradford’s identity is their defence. They have conceded five goals in ten league games and kept seven clean sheets, and only one of their ten league fixtures has produced more than two goals. On the road they have won three of five (W3 D1 L1) with 1-0 wins at Sheffield Wednesday, Notts County and Luton. Duff himself admitted Bradford are winning more than their chances suggest, but a side that rarely concedes gives itself a chance in every game.
What works for or against Bradford City
- Five goals conceded in ten league games, the best defence in League One.
- Three away wins, all by 1-0.
- Only ten league goals scored and Duff admits his side are outperforming their xG.
- Third game under Michael Duff: one draw, one win so far.
Burton vs Bradford Odds
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Burton Form, Stats & Data
Burton’s xG numbers are a warning sign. They create only 0.88 xG per game but score 1.45, so their finishing has been well above what their chances deserve, while 1.75 xG against per game is a poor defensive figure. That is a profile that tends to catch up with a side, especially against opponents who do not give much away.
Bradford Form, Stats & Data
Bradford are not as dominant as the table suggests, but the underlying picture is still solid: 1.19 xG for and 0.86 against per game. Their actual goals against (0.50) flatter them, yet even the expected figure is one of the better marks in League One. Aden Baldwin’s 7.51 rating reflects how much of their success is built at the back.
Burton vs Bradford: Prediction & Betting Tip
I side with Bradford here. The underlying numbers are clear: Bradford create more and allow far less than Burton, and Burton’s goals have come from finishing that their xG of 0.88 per game cannot sustain. Add the likely absence of Delap from the middle of Burton’s back three, and I expect Bradford to find more joy in the final third than they usually do. Bradford have also won three of their five away games, all without conceding.
The best argument the other way is Burton’s head-to-head record, with 2-1 wins in both of the last two meetings, and the fact that Bradford score so few that a single Burton goal could be enough for a draw. Burton have drawn three of five at home. That is why I prefer Draw No Bet to the outright away win: if Bradford’s defence does its job but the attack stalls, my stake comes back.
The bet: Bradford Draw No Bet at 1.43 with Winz. Score prediction: 0-1.