No Rodri, no Yamal, no Oyarzabal – how big can Spain win in Prague?
Spain have won all four group games and are unbeaten in 42 matches, but the side that arrives at Letná looks very different from the one that won the World Cup. Rodri, Lamine Yamal and Dani Olmo are injured, Mikel Oyarzabal is ill, and the fixture that really matters for Luis de la Fuente comes on Sunday against England. The Czech Republic are bottom without a point, yet Santi Denia – who spent years working alongside De la Fuente in Spain’s youth set-up – knows his opponent better than most.
„We want to keep a clean sheet.“ – Santi Denia at Wednesday’s press conference (via iSport, translated from Czech)
Predicted lineups: Czech Republic vs Spain
Both line-ups are the ones predicted by the Czech news agency ČTK on Wednesday. Denia said his XI was largely settled but he wanted to see the final training session, and he would not reveal his goalkeeper. Michal Sadílek is suspended after two yellow cards. For Spain, Ferran Torres is expected to lead the line in Oyarzabal’s absence, with Álex Baena, Fermín López and Nico Williams behind him.
Czech Republic Team News & Preview
Four games, four defeats and two goals scored – the Czech table position is clear enough. The detail is more mixed. The opener against Croatia was lost 2-1, the October game in Oviedo finished 3-1 after Spain led 2-0 at the break, and Denia himself called the 3-0 at Wembley the worst performance of his short tenure. Discipline has been an issue, with Pavel Šulc sent off against England and Ladislav Krejčí dismissed in Oviedo.
Tomáš Souček, David Zima and Lukáš Provod are back after missing the autumn window, which gives the side a more experienced spine. Denia spoke about needing a near-perfect night: set pieces, defensive organisation and transitions. The realistic target is to keep the game tight, because their decisive match for third place comes on Sunday in Osijek.
What works for or against the Czech Republic
- Two goals scored in four group games.
- Souček, Zima and Provod return to the squad.
- Sadílek is suspended and the side has picked up two red cards this campaign.
- Lost by two goals in Oviedo without any of the absences Spain have now.
Spain Team News & Preview
Spain have scored at least twice in all four group games, but they have conceded in every one of them too. The away results were tight: 3-2 at Wembley in September and 2-1 in Split, where Mikel Merino’s double was needed to turn the game around.
The absences matter for the margin more than for the result. Rodri, Yamal and Olmo are three of the players who usually turn possession into chances, and Oyarzabal is their main reference up front. De la Fuente has depth – Pedri, Zubimendi, Nico Williams and Ferran Torres are all expected to start – but England on Sunday is the game that settles top spot and home advantage in the March quarter-final.
What works for or against Spain
- Four wins from four and 42 games unbeaten.
- At least two goals in every group game.
- Rodri, Yamal, Olmo and Oyarzabal are all missing.
- No clean sheet in the group so far.
Czech Republic vs Spain Odds
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Czech Republic vs. Spain Form Guide
Czech Republic Form, Stats & Data
Half a goal per game is the problem, and it is why I am not backing the Czechs to get anything from this. What the numbers also show is that they have not been thrashed: 2.50 goals conceded per game against Croatia, England and Spain, with only the Wembley defeat going beyond two. Before this campaign they had gone 19 home games unbeaten.
Spain Form, Stats & Data
Three goals per game is impressive, but the spread is narrow: Spain’s four wins came by one, three, two and one goal. With four first-choice attackers and midfielders missing and a bigger game three days later, I expect them to control the ball without the same cutting edge.
Czech Republic vs Spain: Prediction & Betting Tip
Spain should win, and I am not arguing otherwise. My interest is in how comfortably. Their away wins in this group were both by one goal, they have conceded in every game, and the players who usually break matches open – Yamal, Olmo, Oyarzabal and Rodri behind them – are all missing. Add a decisive game against England on Sunday and I see a Spain side that manages a lead rather than chases a big score.
The danger is a ruthless night from a squad that remains deep in quality, against an opponent that has scored twice in four games. If the Czechs go behind early, a 3-0 is entirely possible. That is why I prefer the Asian line: a two-goal Spanish win returns the stake. Czech Republic +2 (Asian Handicap) at 1.71 with Winz is my bet for 3/10, and I expect Spain to win 2-1.