Montenegro can clinch top spot – but they have never won by more than one
Ten points from four games puts Montenegro in charge of Group C2, three clear of Cyprus, and a win in Podgorica would all but settle promotion. Latvia are bottom with one point and two goals. On paper it is a mismatch, and the odds reflect that. Look at how Montenegro have won their games, though, and a pattern stands out: 2-1, 3-2, 2-1. Mirko Vučinić’s side keep winning, but they rarely pull clear.
Montenegro’s three Nations League wins this autumn have all been decided by one goal, including a 2-1 in Riga where Vasilije Adžić scored twice.
Predicted lineups: Montenegro vs Latvia
Neither coach has given anything away, so both XIs below are the sides that started on matchday four. Every player listed is in the current squad. Montenegro have extra options this time: Adam Marušić is back after missing the last two camps through injury, Milan Vukotić has recovered from his own injury, and Stevan Jovetić – the country’s record scorer and most-capped player – is available. Latvia usually set up with five at the back under Paolo Nicolato.
Montenegro Team News & Preview
Nikola Krstović arrives with seven Serie A goals for Atalanta, and Montenegro’s attacking options – Krstović, Osmajić, Jovetić and the in-form Adžić – are the strongest in the group. The results have been good but never comfortable. They needed second-half goals to beat Cyprus 2-1, conceded twice in a 3-2 win in Armenia, and let Latvia back into the game late in Riga after leading 2-0.
The last match is the warning sign. At home to Armenia they drew 0-0, a reminder that this side is better at managing games than at blowing them open. Vučinić’s message before Thursday was about stopping Latvia’s counter-attacks, which hints at a patient approach rather than an all-out assault.
What works for or against Montenegro
- Ten points from four games, unbeaten in the group.
- Krstović has seven Serie A goals this season.
- No win by more than one goal in the campaign.
- Drew 0-0 at home to Armenia last time out.
Latvia Team News & Preview
Nicolato’s view is that the gap to the teams around them shows up only in the decisive moments, and the results back that up to a point. Latvia drew 0-0 with Cyprus, lost 2-1 to Montenegro and 2-1 in Cyprus, and the only heavier defeat was the 2-0 in Armenia on the opening day. Markuss Strods scored their goal in the reverse fixture.
The problem is the other end. Two goals in four games is the weakest attacking record in the group. What they do well is sit deep in a back five and keep the score close, and with the bottom spot still at stake against Armenia on Sunday, keeping the goal difference down matters to them too.
What works for or against Latvia
- Three of four group games lost by one goal or drawn.
- Compact back five that rarely leaves space in behind.
- Only two goals scored in four games.
- Still without a win in the group.
Montenegro vs Latvia Odds
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Montenegro Form, Stats & Data
Seven goals in four games is solid rather than dominant, and conceding in three of the four shows why the margins stay narrow. Montenegro have more individual quality than anyone in the group, but they have not yet turned it into a comfortable afternoon.
Latvia Form, Stats & Data
Conceding 1.50 per game is not the record of a side being overrun, and that is the key number for a handicap bet. Latvia’s issue is the half a goal they score per game, not a defence that collapses.
Montenegro vs Latvia: Prediction & Betting Tip
Montenegro to win is the obvious call, but at 1.25 there is nothing in it for me. The more interesting question is whether they finally win by two. In four group games they have not, and the side they face has lost by more than a goal only once. Latvia will defend with five, Montenegro play their final group game in Cyprus on Sunday, and a narrow lead suits the hosts just fine.
The strongest case against me is quality. Krstović already has seven Serie A goals this season, Jovetić and Marušić are back, and a home crowd with promotion in sight could push Montenegro to a 3-0 if an early goal goes in. Latvia’s attack gives them almost nothing to fall back on. Still, the evidence from this campaign points to a tight game, so I am backing Latvia +1.5 at 1.95 with Winz for 4/10 and see Montenegro winning 2-1.