Five weeks after 7-0, Croatia arrive at Wembley with even fewer defenders
The last time these two met, Croatia did not just lose – they were taken apart 7-0 in Rijeka, and Slaven Bilić took the blame himself. Since then the list of absentees has grown. Two centre-backs, Šutalo and Pongračić, are injured, the only natural holding midfielder from the October squad, Jakić, is out, and Perišić is banned after his red card against Spain. England, meanwhile, need only a point to reach the quarter-finals, and Harry Kane is set to win a record 126th cap.
„We knew England were a top side, but what happened was completely unexpected.“ – Slaven Bilić after the 7-0 defeat in Rijeka (via Novosti, translated from Serbian)
Predicted lineups: England vs Croatia
Both XIs follow The Hard Tackle’s prediction from Wednesday. England’s back four is new in the middle: Marc Guéhi withdrew with a hip problem and Ezri Konsa is out with a knee issue, so Jarell Quansah and James Branthwaite are expected to start. Croatia’s line-up carries two question marks – Joško Gvardiol was taken off at half-time for Manchester City at the weekend and Josip Stanišić also picked up a problem – and Index.hr even floated Dominik Kotarski in goal ahead of Dominik Livaković.
England Team News & Preview
Tuchel’s side lost their opener 3-2 to Spain at Wembley and have not conceded since. The 7-0 in Rijeka was England’s biggest Nations League win and their biggest ever against a top-50 side, and the 3-0 against Czechia three days later showed the same control. Anthony Gordon has scored in each of his last three Nations League appearances, and Kane leads the competition’s scoring chart.
There are changes, though. Bukayo Saka misses the camp through injury, and with Guéhi and Konsa both out, England’s defence has a makeshift look. Declan Rice is back after missing the October window, which matters more than it seems: with Rice and Elliot Anderson in the double pivot, England can push both full-backs high against a Croatian midfield that has lost its defensive specialist.
What works for or against England
- 14 goals scored and only three conceded in four group games.
- Rice returns to anchor the midfield.
- Guéhi and Konsa are both out, leaving a reshaped centre-back pairing.
- A draw is enough to reach the quarter-finals, with Spain away on Sunday.
Croatia Team News & Preview
Bilić admitted after Rijeka that his side had been beaten in every part of the game, and the numbers since have not improved much. Croatia have lost three Nations League games in a row and conceded 14 times in four outings. Their only win came in the opener in Prague.
The new absences hit exactly the areas England exploited in October. Without Šutalo and Pongračić, Bilić is down to Vušković, Ćaleta-Car and the uncapped options he has called up, and Index.hr points out that Josip Mišić is now the only specialist defensive midfielder in the squad. Luka Modrić still provides control on the ball, but Croatia’s problem has been stopping counter-attacks, not keeping possession.
What works for or against Croatia
- Three straight Nations League defeats, 14 goals conceded in four games.
- Two first-choice centre-backs and their holding midfielder are injured.
- Perišić is suspended.
- Modrić and Kovačić can keep the ball under pressure.
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England Form, Stats & Data
Three clean sheets in a row tell the story better than the goals do. England have dominated games since the Spain defeat, and their 39 goals in 2026 are already their highest calendar-year total since 2021. The concern is personnel rather than form: a centre-back pairing that has barely played together faces a Croatia side with little going forward.
Croatia Form, Stats & Data
Croatia concede 3.50 goals per Nations League game, and their only win this campaign was the 2-1 in Prague on matchday one. Four goals in four games is not enough to keep pace with England, and the absences fall in the spine of the team.
England vs Croatia: Prediction & Betting Tip
I am not interested in England simply to win at 1.26 – the question is the margin. Croatia have shipped seven and four goals against the two best sides in the group, and they come to Wembley without two centre-backs, their holding midfielder and their most experienced winger. England have not conceded in three games and have a striker chasing a record night.
The risk is motivation. A draw takes England through, Spain are next on Sunday, and Tuchel could manage minutes if he is two goals up early. England’s own defence is also patched together. Even so, the gap in quality and fitness is too big for me to expect a one-goal game, and I am taking England -1.5 at 1.74 with Winz for 4/10, with a 3-0 home win as my score.