OB have not won a league game at Parken since 2003 – and FCK need the points
Midtjylland have moved three points clear at the top, but FC København have a game in hand and can draw level tonight. History is on their side: OB’s last league win at Parken was a 4-2 in August 2003, and FCK are unbeaten in the 29 home league meetings since, with 18 wins and 11 draws. They also won 5-0 in Odense in September. The question is energy. This is FCK’s fourth game in 12 days, after a 2-2 in Belgrade on Thursday night, while OB have had eight days to prepare.
„Vi kommer derover for at skabe et resultat.“ („We’re going over there to get a result.“) – OB midfielder Nikolaj Juul-Sandberg
Predicted lineups: FCK vs OB
Bo Svensson gets his centre-forward back. Andreas Cornelius has served his league ban and Tipsbladet expects him to lead the line, with Elyounoussi behind him and Carrizo and Robert wide. Thapelo Maseko pulled up with a hamstring problem late in the AGF game and is not in the 20-man squad, and Magnus Mattsson remains a long-term absentee. OB are missing William Martin, Jona Niemiec and Peter Therkildsen, and Alexander Ahl Holmström has not trained this week. Thomasberg is expected to stay with his 3-4-3, with Noah Ganaus through the middle.
FCK Team News & Preview
Svensson planned for this game in Belgrade. Clem started on the bench, Markgráf played only the second half and Elyounoussi came on with ten minutes left as FCK drew 2-2 with Crvena Zvezda, Carrizo levelling with a long-range shot. The coach called the point one to be happy with, but the more important detail for tonight is that his best attacking player has barely played since the weekend.
The league form is less convincing than the table. FCK have won one of their last four games, and the 1-1 with AGF drew sharp criticism on Viaplay, where the display was called anaemic. That still came with 24 shots to seven and 11 corners to one, so the problem was finishing rather than control. At Parken they are unbeaten this season, with four wins and a draw and 11 goals scored.
What works for or against FCK
- Unbeaten in 29 home league games against OB, and 5-0 winners in Odense in September.
- Elyounoussi has seven league goals and played only ten minutes in Belgrade.
- Fourth game in 12 days, with a cup tie on Thursday.
- One win in their last four games in all competitions.
OB Team News & Preview
OB arrive in a good mood. They are unbeaten in four league games and goalkeeper Viljar Myhra told TV2 Fyn the team is „getting better and better“. The results deserve a closer look, though. Nordsjælland created 2.12 expected goals to OB’s 0.48 in a 0-0, and the 2-1 against Brøndby came from two Brøndby errors while Brøndby produced 2.60 expected goals.
Goals are the bigger worry. OB have ten in 11 league games and only five in six away from home. Ganaus is the top scorer with three, and Ahl Holmström, who has been involved in three of their goals, is expected to miss out.
What works for or against OB
- Unbeaten in four league games.
- Eight days of rest, against FCK's four.
- Just ten goals in 11 league games and five in six away games.
- Brøndby created 2.60 expected goals against them in the last league game.
FCK vs OB Odds
Match Result
Double Chance
Handicap
Over/Under
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Copenhagen vs. Odense Stats Comparison
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Copenhagen vs. Odense Form Guide
Copenhagen Form, Stats & Data
FCK score more than their expected goals suggest, and Elyounoussi is the main reason. With seven goals and the best FotMob rating in the squad, he turns good positions into goals, and Cornelius‘ return gives him a target to play around. Five clean sheets in 11 games also show that FCK rarely leave much at the back, which matters for a handicap bet.
Odense Form, Stats & Data
OB give away 1.80 expected goals per game, and their goals-against tally only looks reasonable because some opponents have been wasteful. In attack they create chances but turn too few of them into goals. Askou is their best-rated player, which says a lot: OB spend a lot of time defending.
FCK vs OB: Prediction & Betting Tip
FCK have the better players, the better numbers and a strong record in this fixture. OB give away 1.80 expected goals per game, have scored ten league goals all season and are probably without Ahl Holmström. Svensson also protected Elyounoussi on Thursday, and Cornelius is fresh after his suspension. A straight FCK win at 1.43 is too short for me, so I prefer a handicap that pays only if they actually take control of the game.
Fatigue is the risk. FCK looked flat against AGF, and four games in 12 days could easily turn this into a slow, nervy 1-0. That is why I have chosen the -1 Asian line: a one-goal win returns the stake, while a two-goal win pays out. I am backing FC København -1 Asian Handicap at 1.64 with Winz and expect a 2-0 home win.