Arrasate’s first trip back meets a Sevilla side that cannot keep games tight
Jagoba Arrasate’s return started with a 2-0 win over Racing Santander, Osasuna’s first clean sheet since August. Tonight is a harder test: his first away game since coming back, against a Sevilla side that has been involved in 30 goals in nine league games. Luis García Plaza’s team have not won in three league matches, and they conceded twice in stoppage time to draw 3-3 at Levante before losing 4-1 at the Bernabéu. Both teams have a Copa del Rey tie against lower-league opposition later in the week, so neither side has a heavy schedule.
„A nosotros nos cuesta ganar mucho, cada victoria va a ser muy sufrida.“ („Winning is very hard for us; every victory will be a struggle.“) – Luis García Plaza
Predicted lineups: Sevilla vs Osasuna
Sevilla have lost Miguel Sierra, a regular on the wing, for around three months after he dislocated his shoulder at Levante and needed surgery, and centre-back Marcão is also injured. Isaac Romero is back from suspension, while Stassin, Kochorashvili and Guridi have returned to training, although García Plaza said three or four players can manage „máximo 45 minutos“ (45 minutes at most). Osasuna are without centre-back Jorge Herrando, Aimar Oroz and Romain Del Castillo, and Arrasate said he is „being careful“ with right-back Valentin Rosier.
Sevilla Team News & Preview
Sierra’s injury takes away one of Sevilla’s best players – only Youssouf Fofana has a higher FotMob rating in the squad – and García Plaza is still deciding how to replace him: „Puede ser que probemos con Rubén, con Ejuke, con Félix o con Alfon“ („We might try Rubén, Ejuke, Félix or Alfon“). Rubén Vargas could only manage around 45 minutes last week, so the attack is not at full strength.
The bigger worry is the defending. Sevilla concede 1.78 goals per game, they let a 2-0 and then a 3-2 lead slip at Levante, and Real Madrid scored four. At home they have won two and lost two, with five goals scored and seven conceded. García Plaza described Osasuna as „muy intenso, muy directo, con segundas jugadas“ („very intense, very direct, playing for second balls“), which is exactly the sort of game his team has found hard.
What works for or against Sevilla
- Isaac Romero is back from suspension.
- Without Miguel Sierra for around three months.
- No win in three league games and 1.78 goals conceded per game.
- Two wins and two defeats at home, with five goals scored and seven conceded.
Osasuna Team News & Preview
Osasuna sacked Luis Miguel Ramis after eight points from eight games, and Arrasate’s first match back went almost perfectly. Osasuna created 3.65 expected goals against Racing, Budimir scored from the spot after nine minutes and Racing managed just 0.28 expected goals. Arrasate has suggested he will not change much: „puede haber alguna modificación, pero la idea va a ser parecida“ („there may be some changes, but the idea will be similar“).
Away from home, though, Osasuna have been easy to score against. They lost 5-2 at Alavés, 4-0 at Atlético and 5-2 at Betis, and they have conceded 15 goals in four away games. Budimir is the reason they still score: seven of the team’s ten league goals are his, including goals in each of the last two games. Losing centre-back Herrando also weakens a defence that has struggled away from home.
What works for or against Osasuna
- Budimir has seven league goals and has scored in each of the last two games.
- 3.65 expected goals in Arrasate's first game back.
- 15 goals conceded in four away league games.
- Herrando, Oroz and Del Castillo are all injured.
Sevilla vs Osasuna Odds
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FC Sevilla Form, Stats & Data
Sevilla score more than their 1.10 expected goals per game suggest and concede more than their 1.47 expected goals against, so their games have been more open than the underlying numbers. They have the ball only 41% of the time, which means a lot of defending, and the goals are shared around: no player has more than two in the league.
Osasuna Form, Stats & Data
Osasuna create more than their 1.11 goals per game suggest: 1.59 expected goals is a solid number, and much of it comes through Budimir. The problem is at the other end, where two goals conceded per game is well above their expected goals against. With Arrasate back the defence should improve, but one clean sheet does not fix four bad away games.
Sevilla vs Osasuna: Prediction & Betting Tip
I see goals at both ends. Osasuna have scored in three of their four away games and have a striker in Budimir who scores even when his team is struggling. Sevilla concede almost two per game, have kept two clean sheets all season and are still reshaping the side after losing Sierra. At the other end, Osasuna have shipped 15 away goals and now play without Herrando, so Isaac Romero and Ure should get chances.
Arrasate is the main reason for doubt. His first game back produced a clean sheet, and teams under a returning manager often defend more carefully at first. Sevilla’s own attack is not strong either, at 1.10 expected goals per game. I still think Osasuna’s away record is too poor and Budimir too reliable for this to be a low-scoring shutout. I am backing Both Teams to Score – Yes at 2.04 with Winz and can see Sevilla edging it 2-1.